All a bit esoteric when it comes down to the "arguments" on each side, innit? Statistical analysis isn't just difficult for you and I -- it's practically impossible for the man in the street. Ask them to predict the statistical likelihood of any given immigration percentage in, say, 2017, and they'll be stumped. But they'll still "know" that, in some way, "it will be bad." Now add a further mind-bender into the equation. What are the main factors driving net immigration? a) The open frontiers of the EU b) The pull factors of "a better life than Iraq/Yemen/Afghanistan/Nigeria." The man in the street will assume -- I think; I've argued this down the pub -- that the massively dominant factor is (1). But what if it's (2)? All you end up doing is to swap EU immigrants with West African immigrants. Now, given that Nigerians (for example) are one of the more successful immigrant groups in terms of basically doing the hard yakka ... that might actually be a good thing. But second order effects are not really what this referendum is about, are they?
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Stats
Date: 2016-06-08 06:06 pm (UTC)But they'll still "know" that, in some way, "it will be bad."
Now add a further mind-bender into the equation. What are the main factors driving net immigration?
a) The open frontiers of the EU
b) The pull factors of "a better life than Iraq/Yemen/Afghanistan/Nigeria."
The man in the street will assume -- I think; I've argued this down the pub -- that the massively dominant factor is (1).
But what if it's (2)?
All you end up doing is to swap EU immigrants with West African immigrants. Now, given that Nigerians (for example) are one of the more successful immigrant groups in terms of basically doing the hard yakka ... that might actually be a good thing.
But second order effects are not really what this referendum is about, are they?