One PLO hand

[peterbirks]

This was a hand that I was very pleased with -- a fact which might surprise you in that it cost me $41 (on my way to my $200 deficit last night ... this was the one that started it off). However, what was nice about it was that it was a good example of something discussed at length by BDD on his blog.

waynepaul is at seat 0 with $11.45.
Malevy is at seat 1 with $48.95.
woody0923 is at seat 2 with $17.75.
(BUTTON) THE SHOCKERs is at seat 3 with $56.45.
paifos is at seat 4 with $72.60.
rodnic is at seat 5 with $33.05.
Dlilrscl is at seat 6 with $40.30.
Birks is at seat 7 with $41.70.
SMOKINCIGS is at seat 8 with $64.30.
lovebirds is at seat 9 with $33.60.
The button is at seat 3.

paifos posts the small blind of $.25.
rodnic posts the big blind of $.50.

Birks: 9s Td Ah 9h
Pre-flop:

Dlilrscl calls. Birks calls. SMOKINCIGS folds. lovebirds folds. waynepaul raises to $1. Malevy
calls. woody0923 calls. THE SHOCKERs calls. paifos calls. rodnic calls. Dlilrscl calls.
Birks calls.

Flop (board: 8d Jh 9d):

I have trip nines, and there might be trip jacks out there or a made straight. But I already have a plan.

paifos checks. rodnic checks. Dlilrscl checks. Birks checks. waynepaul checks. Malevy bets $8. woody0923 folds. THE SHOCKERs folds. paifos folds. rodnic calls. Dlilrscl folds. Birks raises to $40. waynepaul folds. Malevy goes all-in for $47.95. rodnic goes all-in for $32.05.
Birks goes all-in for $40.70. Malevy is returned $7.25 (uncalled).

BANG! I'm effectively all-in against two people which, provided neither has a set of Jacks, gives me very good odds, particularly if both of them have the made straight. And even if the board does not pair up, a queen may well tie the pot for me.

Turn (board: 8d Jh 9d 3d):

River (board: 8d Jh 9d 3d 7s):

Showdown:

Malevy shows 6s Tc 7c Qc.
This was the made straight.
Malevy has Tc Qc 8d Jh 9d: straight, queen high.
rodnic shows Jd 4s 4h Ad.
This is the flush draw that won it.
rodnic has Jd Ad 8d 9d 3d: flush, ace high.
Birks shows 9s Td Ah 9h.
Birks has 9s Td 8d Jh 7s: straight, jack high.

And this was the 41% favourite.



$3 is raked from a total pot of $121.45.
$3 is raked from the main pot of $104.15.
$0 is raked from side pot #1 of $17.30.
rodnic wins the main pot $101.15 with flush, ace high.
Malevy wins the side pot $17.30 with straight, queen high.

I had a 41% shot at this pot, giving me +EV of $9. I got the hand pretty well right.

Comments

I like the plan, but.....

[miserable-git.livejournal.com]

Does it look so good if Rodnic had folded?

I still agree with this a strategy, but I find the variance scary at times.

Re: I like the plan, but.....

[peterbirks.livejournal.com]

It looks quite horrible if Rodnic folds. Part of "getting it right" was my belief that neither player would fold (as well as the fact that neither had JJ).

Obviously there are downside possibilities. There are also upside possibilities. What if I'm facing a flush draw and bottom set? Once again I get two callers and this time I am monster plus EV.

Rodnic is actually getting pot odds for his call. The player with the worst EV here is the made hand, on about 23%. A strange example of where having the made hand is not best, even when no-one else is on a freeroll.

A further point that I was going to make was that hands like these are why I play at low stakes PLO. I can handle the variance. If this had been a $410 pot (which is its rough equivalent to, say $10-$20 limit), then I would bnot be so blasé about my positive EV! As they say, you can't use value to pay for lunch.

Pete

[(Anonymous)]

Pete

I don’t like it. I think that a large percentage of the time you will be a dog in this situation. As it was, the hands that your opponents had were the best that you could have hoped for, but overall I think this is definitely a –EV situation. You alluded to this being an example of something BDD discussed. I read Dave’s blog a lot and I’m not really sure what you are referring to. Can you clarify ?

Kevin

The BDD hand

[peterbirks.livejournal.com]

The BDD thread was the theoretical situation where you were last to act and you wanted to get both your opponents to go all-in (or both to fold). In that situation you had top set on the turn with a draw to the nut flush, but you suspected that there is at least one (or maybe two) made straights out there.

If you don't see any comparison between that situation and this, I apologize. It seemed to have similar theoretical matters to consider (although obviously there are differences as well -- we aren't talking about computer code, but general principles).

I'll take on board your opinion that overall this is a negative EV situation (although I don't agree with it). But I won't accept your statement that it's the best I could have hoped for. That is plain incorrect. I've made similar raises in similar situations and been 4-to-6 favourite. Here I am only 6-to-4 favourite (English style odds here, boys. If you don't understand them, stick to 2+2, 'cos the face ain't listening).

I assume you mean; "the best I could realistically hope for". Once again, empirically I have found this not to be the case.

Seriously negative EV overall only kicks in here if either (a) a set of jacks is out or (b) I only get called by the made straight and not by any other hand out there (which makes me 45%, so I am still marginally right to be in the hand). I made a read on this hand that this was not going to happen, and I was right. That means that the hand is seriously negative EV only if there is top set out there or if my read is hopelessly wrong. The former was about a 20% chance, I felt, perhaps a bit less. The second probability was, of course, zero. :-)

How do you suggest I play the hand? That I bet out? Then the made straight raises and I probably end up heads up. That I check-call? That surely has a worse EV than the way I played. Or that I check-fold? That has an EV of 0, so I assume that would be your recommendation? EVs of 0 on the flop in PLO are easy to find, but it's hardly the route to profit.


Pete

Re: The BDD hand

[(Anonymous)]

I must admit I didnt like it either, for the same reasons as Kevin. I think there is no guarantee that the other guy comes along, just cos he put in $8. Also, there are other bad three way combinations. It so happened in your hand there was only 1 card out blocking the full. Just one other card seriously hits your chances, and if someone has a J and an 8 then u drop down even more. But the main problem is the other player may simply pass.

gl

Dave