From bad to worse
Dec. 15th, 2005 04:45 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksAt about 11pm last night, after a marathon 13-hour session, I saw my Aces cracked on the river by a two-outer and, in the mode of Nick The Greek after his three-month game against Johnny Moss, got up from the table and said "Gentlemen, I am going to have to let you go".
Luckily I had decided that I was uncomfortable playing $8-$16 with less than $1500 in my pocket, so I decided to try my hand at $4-$8. There is no need for me to elaborate on how dreadful some of these players are. Suffice to say that six players seeing the pot was the norm and that, if a player had a calling hand, it was unlikely that your raise would deter him or her from putting in two bets rather than one. If you don't have the best hand at the end, you don't win.
Obviously the dynamics and personnel of the game changed a few times over the 13 hours, giving me the chance to shift from Ed Miller style to Abdul style and back, depending on which I felt was most suitable to the moment. Occasionally I even threw in half an hour of Sklansky, mainly because during a brief break I had seen the sweet old codger ambling around near the Fontana Lounge looking like he had forgotten where he had left his clean pair of socks.
Anyway, after quickly going $140 down, I manfully clawed my way to $150 up. As I said, you needed the best hand to win, but, since the average pot size was probably $80 (well, the ones I contested were), you only needed a run of three or four of them to be doing okay. This was about 3.5 hours in.
Those of a sensitive disposition might like to look away here. I then embarked on what might well be the worst live run of my life (as I say, thank God it was $4-$8). When you play poker you tend not to clockwatch too much, so I have to guesstimate by the number of dealers I went through and the amount of money that I lost. My estimate is that I went five hours, yes, five hours, without winning a hand. About 150 hands. Oh I tell a lie. I did split one pot, which, after the rake, landed me with a net loss of a dollar. Most of this time I was bleeding money, with the occasional haemmorhage from a bad beat just to add variety.
This sent me from $150 up to $250 down. I should have left then (having reached a 30-big-bet loss) but the players were so weak that I couldn't tear myself away. Foolish of me. I knew that I could't be playing my 'A' game, but decided that, against these people, I didn't need to.
For the last four hours or so I was a bit more up and down, but I kept getting cracked on the river, or missing flops. I remained in stasis.
Then came the last hour, which is a bit of a blur, mainly because the last hand etched itself so indelibly on my memory. Bad beat tales are tedious, so I will keep it brief.
I get AA in the small blind. Five limpers. I raise. Six callers. $56 in pot.
Flop comes KJ7 rainbow. My major concerns here are 77 and KJ. After you have been running this bad, you see demons everywhere. But I bet. I get two callers. $68 in pot.
Turn brings another seven (I thnk it completed the rainbow, but I can't swear to this). This is just about the best card I can hope for. Unless one of my two callers has come in with something like 78, I am definitely in front. KJ is now beaten by my higher 2-pair. I bet. I get one caller. $80 in pot (after rake)
River brings, yes, the King. I check, other player bets. I make crying call, and he shows KQ. A genuine two-outer.
That was enough for me. Net loss - $435.
A more interesting hand came earlier. Obviously I got it wrong, but I still think that my play was right.
I get AhKc in the Big Blind. Five limpers. I raise. Five callers. $48 in pot. Flop comes As7c4c. I bet. MP2, a sneaky Asian female who likes her Aces, raises. Small blind calls. I three-bet. Asian woman four-bets. Small blind insta-calls. Bollocks. $92 in pot (after rake). I really feel that the Asian woman is on something like A7 here. As for the small blind, he's a social young kid in the air force who has played a bit online. Does he have the set? If so, he's playing it well? Might he have the other two-pair Aces? Or has he got AK as well? Difficult. I call, hoping for a King.
Turn brings Jc, putting three clubs on board. I check, Asian woman bets, Small blind insta-calls. I fold. I figure that my king of clubs is useless because the ace of clubs is almost certainly out.
River brings a King. Woman checks, small blind checks. She turns over AT and he turns over A8.
Should I hang around on the turn? I've played this kind of hand many times, and AK doesn't often win. The maths are slightly complicated, but the net of it is that I have to allocate about $12 to win $108, so it's a 12% shot. My opponents need to have kickers which are not a 4,7, or Jack (or hit their two-pair on the river). They also need not to have sets. They haven't raised pre-flop (but the kid might well not have raised from the SB with Ace-big kicker - the woman would certainly have raised with AQ or AK). Finally, I probably need the last card not to be a club.
A lot of Limit is mentally combining probabilities like this in a very short time. I know that the chance of all these occurring is unlikely, but that isn't enough. Is it less than 12% (the odds that I am probably getting if I stay in)? I decided that it was less than 12% and, looking at these numbers, I still think that it was.
My figures for the last four days are minus $39, minus $445, minus $270 and minus $435. When you have a session like I had yesterday, it's best to look at what plusses you can find.
1) Although my game probably deteriorated, I didn't go on tilt. An hour after I stood up I was sweating Barny and Peter Costa in the Fontana Lounge, and one of the other players came in. He was genuinely sympathetic and said that "you lost the least that you could have lost with those cards. You can count today as a win". (And he was only there for the last three hours!)
2) I didn't go and put $500 on red on the roulette wheel, or something like that.
3) I remained courteous, although I'm afraid at times remaining cheerful was beyond me. Playing for those number of hours when nothing is going right is mentally very tiring. These are the sessions that can destroy technically very good players. They crack (see the abuse heaped in the Internet chat boxes). I didn't crack.
4) I'm still $400 up. It still looks as if what promised to be one of my best ever trips might now turn into one of my worst, and I've still set fire to $1400 in four days, but there's a week to go. Who knows.
After I got up I watched the WPT for a couple of hours. I hate railbrding, but this was genuinely tense, and it was like the WSOP used to be around 2000/2001. 550 players, $2m first prize, and I was one of about 40 spectators. McEvoy, Gavin Smith, the Mob, Joe Cassidy's dad. Good fun.
Luckily I had decided that I was uncomfortable playing $8-$16 with less than $1500 in my pocket, so I decided to try my hand at $4-$8. There is no need for me to elaborate on how dreadful some of these players are. Suffice to say that six players seeing the pot was the norm and that, if a player had a calling hand, it was unlikely that your raise would deter him or her from putting in two bets rather than one. If you don't have the best hand at the end, you don't win.
Obviously the dynamics and personnel of the game changed a few times over the 13 hours, giving me the chance to shift from Ed Miller style to Abdul style and back, depending on which I felt was most suitable to the moment. Occasionally I even threw in half an hour of Sklansky, mainly because during a brief break I had seen the sweet old codger ambling around near the Fontana Lounge looking like he had forgotten where he had left his clean pair of socks.
Anyway, after quickly going $140 down, I manfully clawed my way to $150 up. As I said, you needed the best hand to win, but, since the average pot size was probably $80 (well, the ones I contested were), you only needed a run of three or four of them to be doing okay. This was about 3.5 hours in.
Those of a sensitive disposition might like to look away here. I then embarked on what might well be the worst live run of my life (as I say, thank God it was $4-$8). When you play poker you tend not to clockwatch too much, so I have to guesstimate by the number of dealers I went through and the amount of money that I lost. My estimate is that I went five hours, yes, five hours, without winning a hand. About 150 hands. Oh I tell a lie. I did split one pot, which, after the rake, landed me with a net loss of a dollar. Most of this time I was bleeding money, with the occasional haemmorhage from a bad beat just to add variety.
This sent me from $150 up to $250 down. I should have left then (having reached a 30-big-bet loss) but the players were so weak that I couldn't tear myself away. Foolish of me. I knew that I could't be playing my 'A' game, but decided that, against these people, I didn't need to.
For the last four hours or so I was a bit more up and down, but I kept getting cracked on the river, or missing flops. I remained in stasis.
Then came the last hour, which is a bit of a blur, mainly because the last hand etched itself so indelibly on my memory. Bad beat tales are tedious, so I will keep it brief.
I get AA in the small blind. Five limpers. I raise. Six callers. $56 in pot.
Flop comes KJ7 rainbow. My major concerns here are 77 and KJ. After you have been running this bad, you see demons everywhere. But I bet. I get two callers. $68 in pot.
Turn brings another seven (I thnk it completed the rainbow, but I can't swear to this). This is just about the best card I can hope for. Unless one of my two callers has come in with something like 78, I am definitely in front. KJ is now beaten by my higher 2-pair. I bet. I get one caller. $80 in pot (after rake)
River brings, yes, the King. I check, other player bets. I make crying call, and he shows KQ. A genuine two-outer.
That was enough for me. Net loss - $435.
A more interesting hand came earlier. Obviously I got it wrong, but I still think that my play was right.
I get AhKc in the Big Blind. Five limpers. I raise. Five callers. $48 in pot. Flop comes As7c4c. I bet. MP2, a sneaky Asian female who likes her Aces, raises. Small blind calls. I three-bet. Asian woman four-bets. Small blind insta-calls. Bollocks. $92 in pot (after rake). I really feel that the Asian woman is on something like A7 here. As for the small blind, he's a social young kid in the air force who has played a bit online. Does he have the set? If so, he's playing it well? Might he have the other two-pair Aces? Or has he got AK as well? Difficult. I call, hoping for a King.
Turn brings Jc, putting three clubs on board. I check, Asian woman bets, Small blind insta-calls. I fold. I figure that my king of clubs is useless because the ace of clubs is almost certainly out.
River brings a King. Woman checks, small blind checks. She turns over AT and he turns over A8.
Should I hang around on the turn? I've played this kind of hand many times, and AK doesn't often win. The maths are slightly complicated, but the net of it is that I have to allocate about $12 to win $108, so it's a 12% shot. My opponents need to have kickers which are not a 4,7, or Jack (or hit their two-pair on the river). They also need not to have sets. They haven't raised pre-flop (but the kid might well not have raised from the SB with Ace-big kicker - the woman would certainly have raised with AQ or AK). Finally, I probably need the last card not to be a club.
A lot of Limit is mentally combining probabilities like this in a very short time. I know that the chance of all these occurring is unlikely, but that isn't enough. Is it less than 12% (the odds that I am probably getting if I stay in)? I decided that it was less than 12% and, looking at these numbers, I still think that it was.
My figures for the last four days are minus $39, minus $445, minus $270 and minus $435. When you have a session like I had yesterday, it's best to look at what plusses you can find.
1) Although my game probably deteriorated, I didn't go on tilt. An hour after I stood up I was sweating Barny and Peter Costa in the Fontana Lounge, and one of the other players came in. He was genuinely sympathetic and said that "you lost the least that you could have lost with those cards. You can count today as a win". (And he was only there for the last three hours!)
2) I didn't go and put $500 on red on the roulette wheel, or something like that.
3) I remained courteous, although I'm afraid at times remaining cheerful was beyond me. Playing for those number of hours when nothing is going right is mentally very tiring. These are the sessions that can destroy technically very good players. They crack (see the abuse heaped in the Internet chat boxes). I didn't crack.
4) I'm still $400 up. It still looks as if what promised to be one of my best ever trips might now turn into one of my worst, and I've still set fire to $1400 in four days, but there's a week to go. Who knows.
After I got up I watched the WPT for a couple of hours. I hate railbrding, but this was genuinely tense, and it was like the WSOP used to be around 2000/2001. 550 players, $2m first prize, and I was one of about 40 spectators. McEvoy, Gavin Smith, the Mob, Joe Cassidy's dad. Good fun.
no subject
Date: 2005-12-15 11:20 pm (UTC)AK - given the type of game you appeared to be in, I'd have ploughed on to the river.
Currency crisis - whats your take on the £/US over the next couple of years, from what I've read it only looks like its heading one way - a weaker dollar. This is bad news, in theory, for non-$ based player as they'd have to player higher, tougher, games for the same reward, or just less at their current levels :(
chaos