Oct. 1st, 2008

peterbirks: (Default)
I started the year with the proclaimed aim of around $12k profit at a rate of about $7 per 100 or $15 an hour.

After Q1 I was on track, despite a hiccup at $200 buy-in in January and a stinking start on Party.

During Q2 the wheels came off. I think that I was seeing too many flops with a limp (or, in many cases, trying so to do, only for the button or the blinds to put in a punishing raise). I was also calling early raises when in late position with pairs, only for the implied odds to vanish or, even worse, for a punitive reraise to come in from the button or the blinds. Oh, and I ran bad.

Determined to rebuild from the ground up, I went back to $50 buy-in and adopted a significantly tighter and more aggressive approach. This stopped the rot in some places and generated significant profits in others -- notably on Party and Stars.

When I eventually moved back to $100 buy-in the profits continued, with a slight dip in August (whe n I was on holiday for a chunk of the time). In the six weeks since getting back into the swing of things, it's been an excellent run.

Much if this has, admittedly, been down to some soft games on Pacific and some decent cards. All of the 'conventional' things work on Pacific. You get to see speculative flops cheaply. You don't get reraised 90% of the time when you cold-call a small raise with your speculative pair in the cut-off. And when you do hit, top pair top kicker will pay you off.

Because you play so many more hands online, the multi-tabler fests see far stronger hand v hand situations when all the chips go in. Bottom set isn't much use against an opponent who will only commit all his chips with middle set or better. Agaionst opponents who will smack it all in with TPTK, it's gold dust. I've learnt to judge how players in games tend to play their hands, and that's enabled me to make some correct laydowns with good cards and correct calls with bad ones.

I've also adopted a more aggressive continuation technique. Actually, that's not true. I'm CB-ing less than I used to. But when I do continuation-bet, I'm more likely to fire a second barrell on the turn, even with only AK over a rag board. I also like the technique of betting small on the flop (say, half the pot), but following up with a pot bet on the turn. This is probably exploitable, but it's currently generating a large proportion of folds.

The important thing, of course, is to have the strength to make these bets for value the right proportion of the time (a high proportion against a lot of turn callers, not so often against a lot of turn folders), and also to be able to judge flops and turn cards correctly in comparison to opponent's range.

Other lessons. Pot-size bets on wet boards are minus EV for me. If three of a suit comes down and I have, for example TP and a bad kicker, I'm getting better results from half-pot bets than from full-pot bets. As with all situations, however, the sizes of opponents' stacks are more important than the shape of the board.

My rate per 100 for the year is $6.28, a fraction below target. However, my move up to 6-tabling in mid-September has boosted the hourly rate to $13.64, which is perfectly satisfactory. I've played 160,000 hands this year already, in 737 hours -- about 217 hannds per hour. If I 6-table I can get anywhere up to 380 hands an hour, probably averaging 330. However, 90 minutes at a time is about the maximum that I can manage at the moment -- and watching 'Homicide' at the same time is a no-no.

tables, charts, etc, for the geek in us all )

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