Some Limit matters
Mar. 4th, 2006 01:05 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksWhat would be your view of this hand?
A typical $2-$4 game on Party, Sunday morning US time: No reads on players except where indicated.
You get A♥ 7♥ in MP2
UTG (conservative possibly weak-tight) limps. UTG+1 folds. MP1 limps. You limp. Button (loose-passive) limps. Small blind (slightly aggressive, dangerous) raises. Big blind calls (always defends blind). UTG calls. MP1 calls. You call. Button calls. Pot = $24.
Flop comes J♥, 6♣, 4♥
Small blind bets out, big blind folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls. You raise. Button folds. SB three-bets. UTG calls, MP1 calls. You call. $48 in pot.
Turn brings J♠. Small Blind bets out. UTG raises. MP1 folds. $60 in pot. What do you do? And what question are you asking at the moment?
There is nothing unusual about this situation. I must have seen variants of it posted many times on 2+2. And, as is often the case, it's the wrong question. However, question it remains, so let's answer it. You call. Even though you might be drawing dead or you might make your hand and still lose, you are getting sufficient odds to make the call correct. SB might be KK or AA. UTG is probably something like JQs, JKs or AJ off. If you make your flush (22%) you are probably 80% to win it. So you are getting 7.5 to 1 about a 6 to 1 shot.
But, like I say, it's the wrong question. The question that you should be asking is, what was I doing, limping with A7s in MP2 in the first place? This kind of limp is probably the most typical and the biggest leak that I see amongst $2-$4 players, and with good reason. Because this hand was not a $2-$4 hand on Party. It is actually on page 150 of Ed Miller's Small Stakes Hold'em. And he makes no adverse comment about the limp pre-flop.
Now, Ed is a good player. Why does he make no comment?
Because he is talking about games like $2-$4 in the Flamingo some afternoons — slot machine Hold'em, where people put in $2 pre-flop with anything. There are very few raises pre-flop (except by you, when you want to build a pot). I remember playing in one of these games a couple of years ago and after a couple of hours when I had ritually been dumping stuff like 87s UTG, I realized that I could safely call with these cards, because no-one else was going to raise.
But, ask this question. If you know there is going to be a raise behind you, do you limp with A7s in this position? I certainly don't. So, push the question further. What does the likelihood of a raise have to be before A7s becomes a fold? 10%? 20%? 50%? That's a tougher question, and one which I haven't really thought about too much. In the games that I play online, this hand is a fold. I have other things to think about.
+++++++++++
Here's a hand where my newly adopted "take risks and build pots" strategy paid off nicely, but I still think I might have misplayed it at the end.
$3/$6 Texas Hold'em
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1 (BB): bigred23111 ( $31 )
Seat 2: Birks ( $249.50 )
Seat 3: lxzhypt ( $172 )
Seat 4: kitty75222 ( $159.51 )
Seat 5: DuffHombre ( $150 )
Seat 6: Bolibompa123 ( $175 )
Seat 7: jy_yang ( $167 )
Seat 8: hansekhagen ( $190 )
Seat 9 (Button): maxmilian21 ( $137.50 )
Seat 10 (SB): gravedigger ( $179 )
Dealt to Birks [ Q♦ Q♣ ]
Birks raises [$6].
jy_yang (very loose, 83% of pots, 14% raises) calls [$6].
bigred23111 (no info) calls [$3].
$19 in the pot.
Flop [ 2♦, Q♥, 9♥ ]
bigred23111 checks.
Birks checks.
jy_yang checks.
My instinct is to bet here unless the flop is something like Q92 rainbow. Part of this is based on the fact that I always bet out in this kind of situation. Therefore a check must indicate a set of Queens, right? But this is late Friday. These guys aren’t paying attention. As far as they are concerned, a check might be weakness from a conservative player. I half expect jy_yang to bet with anything. If he does, I’ll pull the trigger on the flop rather than wait for the turn and risk giving a free card.
Turn [ 6♦ ]
Two diamonds, two hearts. I might well get some action here that is very anti-percentage for the opponents.
bigred23111 bets [$6].
Even better
Birks raises [$12].
jy_yang folds.
bigred23111 calls [$6].
River [ K♥ ]
bigred23111 bets [$6].
Birks calls [$6].
bigred23111 shows [ 6♡, K♠ ] two pairs, kings and sixes.
Birks shows [ Q◊, Q♡ ] three of a kind, queens.
Birks wins $52.50 from the main pot with three of a kind, queens.
The question is, should I value raise the river? I want to be better than 60% to put in the raise and be confident that I am going to be called (the raise is valueless if opponent has a missed flush draw and no pair, for example). I suppose that the question is, therefore, what kind of hands can opponent have that he will call with that lose. What hands that he will call with and win. And what hands that he will three-bet with (let’s ignore the three-bet bluff for the moment)? This is a real toughie and is not an easy one to work out quickly when you are three-tabling, so I erred on the side of conservatism. Part of my reasoning was that I thought that his bet on the turn was a bet on a draw. The third heart might have completed that draw. But he is more likely to have two diamonds than two hearts, because he checked the flop. I’m still not certain whether the value raise is right or wrong here, but perhaps I should start erring on the side of gambling, rather than caution.
A typical $2-$4 game on Party, Sunday morning US time: No reads on players except where indicated.
You get A♥ 7♥ in MP2
UTG (conservative possibly weak-tight) limps. UTG+1 folds. MP1 limps. You limp. Button (loose-passive) limps. Small blind (slightly aggressive, dangerous) raises. Big blind calls (always defends blind). UTG calls. MP1 calls. You call. Button calls. Pot = $24.
Flop comes J♥, 6♣, 4♥
Small blind bets out, big blind folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls. You raise. Button folds. SB three-bets. UTG calls, MP1 calls. You call. $48 in pot.
Turn brings J♠. Small Blind bets out. UTG raises. MP1 folds. $60 in pot. What do you do? And what question are you asking at the moment?
There is nothing unusual about this situation. I must have seen variants of it posted many times on 2+2. And, as is often the case, it's the wrong question. However, question it remains, so let's answer it. You call. Even though you might be drawing dead or you might make your hand and still lose, you are getting sufficient odds to make the call correct. SB might be KK or AA. UTG is probably something like JQs, JKs or AJ off. If you make your flush (22%) you are probably 80% to win it. So you are getting 7.5 to 1 about a 6 to 1 shot.
But, like I say, it's the wrong question. The question that you should be asking is, what was I doing, limping with A7s in MP2 in the first place? This kind of limp is probably the most typical and the biggest leak that I see amongst $2-$4 players, and with good reason. Because this hand was not a $2-$4 hand on Party. It is actually on page 150 of Ed Miller's Small Stakes Hold'em. And he makes no adverse comment about the limp pre-flop.
Now, Ed is a good player. Why does he make no comment?
Because he is talking about games like $2-$4 in the Flamingo some afternoons — slot machine Hold'em, where people put in $2 pre-flop with anything. There are very few raises pre-flop (except by you, when you want to build a pot). I remember playing in one of these games a couple of years ago and after a couple of hours when I had ritually been dumping stuff like 87s UTG, I realized that I could safely call with these cards, because no-one else was going to raise.
But, ask this question. If you know there is going to be a raise behind you, do you limp with A7s in this position? I certainly don't. So, push the question further. What does the likelihood of a raise have to be before A7s becomes a fold? 10%? 20%? 50%? That's a tougher question, and one which I haven't really thought about too much. In the games that I play online, this hand is a fold. I have other things to think about.
+++++++++++
Here's a hand where my newly adopted "take risks and build pots" strategy paid off nicely, but I still think I might have misplayed it at the end.
$3/$6 Texas Hold'em
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1 (BB): bigred23111 ( $31 )
Seat 2: Birks ( $249.50 )
Seat 3: lxzhypt ( $172 )
Seat 4: kitty75222 ( $159.51 )
Seat 5: DuffHombre ( $150 )
Seat 6: Bolibompa123 ( $175 )
Seat 7: jy_yang ( $167 )
Seat 8: hansekhagen ( $190 )
Seat 9 (Button): maxmilian21 ( $137.50 )
Seat 10 (SB): gravedigger ( $179 )
Dealt to Birks [ Q♦ Q♣ ]
Birks raises [$6].
jy_yang (very loose, 83% of pots, 14% raises) calls [$6].
bigred23111 (no info) calls [$3].
$19 in the pot.
Flop [ 2♦, Q♥, 9♥ ]
bigred23111 checks.
Birks checks.
jy_yang checks.
My instinct is to bet here unless the flop is something like Q92 rainbow. Part of this is based on the fact that I always bet out in this kind of situation. Therefore a check must indicate a set of Queens, right? But this is late Friday. These guys aren’t paying attention. As far as they are concerned, a check might be weakness from a conservative player. I half expect jy_yang to bet with anything. If he does, I’ll pull the trigger on the flop rather than wait for the turn and risk giving a free card.
Turn [ 6♦ ]
Two diamonds, two hearts. I might well get some action here that is very anti-percentage for the opponents.
bigred23111 bets [$6].
Even better
Birks raises [$12].
jy_yang folds.
bigred23111 calls [$6].
River [ K♥ ]
bigred23111 bets [$6].
Birks calls [$6].
bigred23111 shows [ 6♡, K♠ ] two pairs, kings and sixes.
Birks shows [ Q◊, Q♡ ] three of a kind, queens.
Birks wins $52.50 from the main pot with three of a kind, queens.
The question is, should I value raise the river? I want to be better than 60% to put in the raise and be confident that I am going to be called (the raise is valueless if opponent has a missed flush draw and no pair, for example). I suppose that the question is, therefore, what kind of hands can opponent have that he will call with that lose. What hands that he will call with and win. And what hands that he will three-bet with (let’s ignore the three-bet bluff for the moment)? This is a real toughie and is not an easy one to work out quickly when you are three-tabling, so I erred on the side of conservatism. Part of my reasoning was that I thought that his bet on the turn was a bet on a draw. The third heart might have completed that draw. But he is more likely to have two diamonds than two hearts, because he checked the flop. I’m still not certain whether the value raise is right or wrong here, but perhaps I should start erring on the side of gambling, rather than caution.
no subject
Date: 2006-03-04 05:00 pm (UTC)In QQ hand the King on the river completes the straightdraw too. These kind of value raises are very player dependant. Aginst unknown I probably just call here too, but my riverplay isn't world class :(
aksu
no subject
Date: 2006-03-04 07:41 pm (UTC)And, just out of curiosity, do you limp if you know that you are going to be raised? That was my major query really. As I said in my piece, limping is fine if you know that you are not going to be raised. So, assuming that you don't like the limp if you know that you are going to be raised, at what level of probability does the limp become wrong? Or are you happy with the limp even if a raise comes in behind you? This really strikes me as odd, as you seem to be playing only for a flush or trip sevens on the flop.
I am genuinely curious here (see my reply to Simon) because it just isn't a way that I play or that I could feel comfortable with playing.
no subject
Date: 2006-03-05 01:11 am (UTC)So simulations show that A7s is a dog against good hands. Also if I somehow knew that there will be a raise behind me I would fold. Fortunately those things have not much to do with our decision in a real game.
In real game A7s could very well be the best hand after two limpers.