i should follow my online rules
Sep. 29th, 2006 09:36 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksNot the best of days at Bellagio. Running bad, then a long run of bad cards that made for a lot of folding, which of course starts to make hands such as 54s look attractive, particularly since many of your opponents refuse to raise with anything pre-flop (this can make post-flop analysis hard, but it does at least make limping from early position less troublesome).
Question: If in a looseish game (lots of six-players-seeing-the flop) three of a suit flops, what is the chance that one of the six players who saw the flop has a flush, assuming you have none of that suit?
I did a rough in-my-head calculation at the table and came up with about 20%.
Now, suppose you flop the flush, but it's a low one. What is the chance that one of your opponents has also flopped the flush? I made this about a 10% to 12% chance. That's a higher probability than people would instinctively expect, and it's one of the reasons I dislike low to medium suited connectors. For a start, more than a third of the time that three of a suit appears on the board, a fourth will make an appearance. For a second, in a loose game, you can lose to higher flushes where two of the suit are in your opponent's hand. That's what happened to me twice today - once with a nutter with a set putting in the raises on the flop, turn and river, while two players with modest flushes were calling cautiously. Needless to say, my flush was the more modest of the two.
I sometimes wonder if I am just running bad at the Bellagio or if I need to make some fundamental adjustments to my play. The game certainly plays differently from the MGM. Then again, as I wrote before, Thursday is an unusual kind of day.
No pics. At 5pm it was just too hot to make it up to interesting photo places. Perhaps tomorrow.
Current figures, modestly down.
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Question: If in a looseish game (lots of six-players-seeing-the flop) three of a suit flops, what is the chance that one of the six players who saw the flop has a flush, assuming you have none of that suit?
I did a rough in-my-head calculation at the table and came up with about 20%.
Now, suppose you flop the flush, but it's a low one. What is the chance that one of your opponents has also flopped the flush? I made this about a 10% to 12% chance. That's a higher probability than people would instinctively expect, and it's one of the reasons I dislike low to medium suited connectors. For a start, more than a third of the time that three of a suit appears on the board, a fourth will make an appearance. For a second, in a loose game, you can lose to higher flushes where two of the suit are in your opponent's hand. That's what happened to me twice today - once with a nutter with a set putting in the raises on the flop, turn and river, while two players with modest flushes were calling cautiously. Needless to say, my flush was the more modest of the two.
I sometimes wonder if I am just running bad at the Bellagio or if I need to make some fundamental adjustments to my play. The game certainly plays differently from the MGM. Then again, as I wrote before, Thursday is an unusual kind of day.
No pics. At 5pm it was just too hot to make it up to interesting photo places. Perhaps tomorrow.
Current figures, modestly down.
+++++++++
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no subject
Date: 2006-09-29 09:29 am (UTC)Move over to the 15-30. You won't get 7 limpers every pot and your hand definition will be easier. By my calculations, your baby flush will be good when you flop it an additional 65.47% compared to the $8/16.
Now get on with it man.
Simon "not envious" G.
no subject
Date: 2006-09-29 10:25 am (UTC)matt
no subject
Date: 2006-09-29 01:32 pm (UTC)Yes, I'm raising and reraising every street when I think that I am ahead -- I've spotted that one. That won a couple of nice pots in the Flamingo when my flopped two-pairs became full houses.
Irritatingly (and this is all part of running bad) a couple of times I raised with AJ or AQ, flopped JJx and QQx, made my continuation bet and got a stream of folders. Duh, I said to myself, that isn't meant to happen. I wonder if I have a tell? (Of course, that isn't it ... it's just the kind of thing that you think for a second when you fail to get paid off in a game where everyone else gets paid off!)
I don't particularly overweight suckouts. In fact I thought more about the low suited connectors, where I was distinctly behind all the way. Then again, my two good wins at the Flamingo came with suited connectors, via full houses... :-)
PJ
no subject
Date: 2006-09-29 01:41 pm (UTC)DY
flushes
Date: 2006-09-29 01:44 pm (UTC)Can you tell me how you calculated the odds of somebody having suited hole cards that matched the three on the flop, because 20% seems a little high to me. I'm probably just looking at it the wrong way, but this situation comes up quite a bit, and I'd like to know that I'm not way off base. Thanks.
Scott
Re: flushes
Date: 2006-09-29 03:26 pm (UTC)Approximately: the chance that any arbitrary player has two of the suit is 10/47 * 9/46 = 4.16%
Again, disregarding a pile of combination-type stuff, the chance that none of the opponents has it is, for varying numbers of 'em:
1: 95.8%
2: 91.8%
3: 88.0%
4: 84.4%
5: 80.8%
6: 77.5%
Or thereabouts. So the chance that one of them hit is 100% minus whatever the relevant number turns out to be.
Mike
Re: flushes
Date: 2006-09-29 03:27 pm (UTC)Say there are five opponents. There are 47 unknown cards, so 47x46/2 = about 1100 (in fact, 1081). Of these possible two-card holdings, 10x9/2 or 45 are two of the suit on board. That gives you 45/1100. Multiply the first number by five (because you have five opponents) and you get 225/1100, or about 20%.
I suspect you are looking at the chance fr one individual hand, rather than the group of five opponents.
Pete
no subject
Date: 2006-09-29 03:29 pm (UTC)PJ
Re: flushes
Date: 2006-09-29 03:46 pm (UTC)Scott