Amidst The Gold Rush
Apr. 16th, 2005 11:23 amBack in the 1980s it seemed as if half the companies in the UK were looking for new ways in which they could throw money down the drain by investing in the US. Marks & Spencer was just one of the retailers that got burnt, while Midland Bank got hit so hard by its failure to spot who the mug was at the table (the Midland, in case you didn't guess) that shortly after it fell gratefully into the arms of HSBC.
So it was with some hilarity that I read the newswire announcement yesterday that Dixon's had found its new Eldorado -- that mythical land which was apparently made of gold. In this case, Russia. And the company it is going to invest in? You betta believe it. Eldorado.
Eldorado is an eletrical goods retailer in the Russia and, if you believe its own figures, grew buy 83% last year. Dixons will swear blind that things are different this time round and that it is well-protected against serious damage, but the fact remains that if it all goes belly-up, Dixons will be $190m in the hole.
And the reasons for the investment are all wrong. This is the standard case of: "we need to expand to support the share price. The UK sucks. Where can we expand? I know! Russia!" It's not a matter of looking at the potential rationally. Dixons needs this to work. Its alternative is to hold up its hands and say "that's it, we are a mature business, it's all downhill from here". The point is, this could well be the correct strategy. As John Harrington noted, if Wang had done that in the late 1980s, its shareholders would have been a lot better off. Struggling to find somewhere to put your money and then trying to justify it post hoc is a bad sign.
And what of Eldorado? Not only is this company from outside Moscow, since 1999 it's been from outside Russia. It moved from the Urals (where it was founded in 1995) to the Ukraine. To be frank, in the case of a company just 10 years old that has shifted location to one of the most corrupt countries in the east (prior to the recent elections) I wouldn't care if it did have 600 stores in 420 towns. I would want to take a very hard look at both the numbers and at the reality behind the numbers before I promised $190m of hard-earned cash.
So it was with some hilarity that I read the newswire announcement yesterday that Dixon's had found its new Eldorado -- that mythical land which was apparently made of gold. In this case, Russia. And the company it is going to invest in? You betta believe it. Eldorado.
Eldorado is an eletrical goods retailer in the Russia and, if you believe its own figures, grew buy 83% last year. Dixons will swear blind that things are different this time round and that it is well-protected against serious damage, but the fact remains that if it all goes belly-up, Dixons will be $190m in the hole.
And the reasons for the investment are all wrong. This is the standard case of: "we need to expand to support the share price. The UK sucks. Where can we expand? I know! Russia!" It's not a matter of looking at the potential rationally. Dixons needs this to work. Its alternative is to hold up its hands and say "that's it, we are a mature business, it's all downhill from here". The point is, this could well be the correct strategy. As John Harrington noted, if Wang had done that in the late 1980s, its shareholders would have been a lot better off. Struggling to find somewhere to put your money and then trying to justify it post hoc is a bad sign.
And what of Eldorado? Not only is this company from outside Moscow, since 1999 it's been from outside Russia. It moved from the Urals (where it was founded in 1995) to the Ukraine. To be frank, in the case of a company just 10 years old that has shifted location to one of the most corrupt countries in the east (prior to the recent elections) I wouldn't care if it did have 600 stores in 420 towns. I would want to take a very hard look at both the numbers and at the reality behind the numbers before I promised $190m of hard-earned cash.