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Aug. 17th, 2007 08:50 pmIT may be a hostage to fortune when posting in the middle of a five buy-in downswing (I'm glad that it started mid-session, so that the Excel graph doesn't look so horrible, but pokergrapher doesn't lie...) but I've been thinking a lot about how much to raise in late position, with what hands.
Although I had been doing it somewhat instinctively, a glance at my records shows that I've been changing my raising habits against tight short-stacked players in the blinds who have won a couple of pots. In $100 buy in (50c-$1 blinds) this would mean that they have between $22 and $33 - something like that.
Before I talk about this kind of player, let's have a brief look at the other likely opponents in $100-max games.
1) Tight short-stack with less than $20
2) Tight aggressive deep stack ($60 or more, usually in the $100 region)
3) Loose passive small stack
4) loose passive big stack
5) loose aggressive big stack
I'll perhaps come back to these at a later time. Each seems to me to demand a different kind of hand ranking and a different kind of raise-sizing.
But, for our player with $22 to $33, I seem to have been having considerable success with raises of a level that effectively commits them to the hand, but which I can get away from if my hand isn't strong enough to call a reraise.
This level appears to be about a between a fifth and a quarter of their stack. Effectively that means that any reraise from them has to be a shove. But if they do shove, they risk quite a lot if I wake up with a hand. Say I'm raising 30% of the time in the Cut-off against this kind of player, and I'm raising $5 to $6 every time I raise. What happens?
Well, 95% of the time, at this level, they bottle it. Sometimes the Small blind pokes his nose in and very rarely I get cold called or reraised from the button. I would imagine that as I move up in stakes, these irritants would occur more often (plus reraises from button and Small blind). At this level, it's about a 1-in-10 event that someone fights back (given that the Big Blind is as I described and that I don't have a "Never Fold" player (say, 90% VPIP or more) on the Button or in the SB).
So, even if my raise is in the upper range ($6), I'm taking down the $1.50, 9 times in 10. My fear is that this is exploitable. It won't be long before people catch on to what I am doing and counterplay it. The obvvious counterplay is to reraise more lightly. At the moment they are falling into the trap of waiting for a hand and then cold-calling my raise. That gives me the flop as an escape route if I am raising light.
But, with only $22 to $33 in front of them, my liability isn't that nightmarish anyway, provided I get to see a flop.
And, if I am raising with 30% of hands and the Big blind elects to shove, I can call the shove with ... what? I think I am getting too tight here and that I should be calling the shove with at least a third of the hands with which I raise.
The other counterplay which I haven't come across, but which would cause me a problem, is a "stop and go". Suppose the big blind calls about half the time. Then he pushes all in on a flop such as Paint-x-x. Or Pair-x? Plus, of course, he pushes all in on any flop when he actually makes a hand.
But I haven't come across this play yet. I assume that I have to call very thin in these situations, perhaps with as little as Ace high and a backdoor flush draw.
Washing machine update. Still fucked despite an hour and a half of fun this morning. Another man coming tomorrow (Saturdday). Wet clothes everywhere.
Life is hard.
Although I had been doing it somewhat instinctively, a glance at my records shows that I've been changing my raising habits against tight short-stacked players in the blinds who have won a couple of pots. In $100 buy in (50c-$1 blinds) this would mean that they have between $22 and $33 - something like that.
Before I talk about this kind of player, let's have a brief look at the other likely opponents in $100-max games.
1) Tight short-stack with less than $20
2) Tight aggressive deep stack ($60 or more, usually in the $100 region)
3) Loose passive small stack
4) loose passive big stack
5) loose aggressive big stack
I'll perhaps come back to these at a later time. Each seems to me to demand a different kind of hand ranking and a different kind of raise-sizing.
But, for our player with $22 to $33, I seem to have been having considerable success with raises of a level that effectively commits them to the hand, but which I can get away from if my hand isn't strong enough to call a reraise.
This level appears to be about a between a fifth and a quarter of their stack. Effectively that means that any reraise from them has to be a shove. But if they do shove, they risk quite a lot if I wake up with a hand. Say I'm raising 30% of the time in the Cut-off against this kind of player, and I'm raising $5 to $6 every time I raise. What happens?
Well, 95% of the time, at this level, they bottle it. Sometimes the Small blind pokes his nose in and very rarely I get cold called or reraised from the button. I would imagine that as I move up in stakes, these irritants would occur more often (plus reraises from button and Small blind). At this level, it's about a 1-in-10 event that someone fights back (given that the Big Blind is as I described and that I don't have a "Never Fold" player (say, 90% VPIP or more) on the Button or in the SB).
So, even if my raise is in the upper range ($6), I'm taking down the $1.50, 9 times in 10. My fear is that this is exploitable. It won't be long before people catch on to what I am doing and counterplay it. The obvvious counterplay is to reraise more lightly. At the moment they are falling into the trap of waiting for a hand and then cold-calling my raise. That gives me the flop as an escape route if I am raising light.
But, with only $22 to $33 in front of them, my liability isn't that nightmarish anyway, provided I get to see a flop.
And, if I am raising with 30% of hands and the Big blind elects to shove, I can call the shove with ... what? I think I am getting too tight here and that I should be calling the shove with at least a third of the hands with which I raise.
The other counterplay which I haven't come across, but which would cause me a problem, is a "stop and go". Suppose the big blind calls about half the time. Then he pushes all in on a flop such as Paint-x-x. Or Pair-x? Plus, of course, he pushes all in on any flop when he actually makes a hand.
But I haven't come across this play yet. I assume that I have to call very thin in these situations, perhaps with as little as Ace high and a backdoor flush draw.
Washing machine update. Still fucked despite an hour and a half of fun this morning. Another man coming tomorrow (Saturdday). Wet clothes everywhere.
Life is hard.
