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Nothing new
May. 14th, 2009 12:50 pmIt's all a bit same-old same-old at the moment, isn't it? I remain a fraction bullish on sterling, but not really enough to plonk my money down at the moment. I see a medium-term upside (say, sometime in the next 12 months) of $1.66 to $1.68, but short-term I've got no idea where it is going. As my old boss in the currency world once said "we're at the mercy of politicians here". Nothing annoyed him more than reality getting in the way of his charts. But, well, he was a dick.
My short on Barclays (expires June, I think), has gained back about £150, and I'm letting it run. Definitely not one of my greatest bets of all time, though.
Poker has been a bit odd. I dropped over $300 yesterday after a nice run for a few days up to Tuesday at 10pm. $200 of the $300 was a single hand that I think I played badly, even though playing it very well would only have saved me $70. And there's a metagame factor involved.
I'll detail the hand later, but the most intersting thing about it was my lack of emotional involvement. Not only did I not go on tilt, but I woke up this morning trying to remember whether I had won or lost.
This could be a sign of incipient manicism or it could be a genuine inurement to my current stakes, where $200+ gains and losses are becoming somewhat run-of-the-mill.
Anyhoo, the hand went as follows. I've no worries or intention to alter any of my play before the river, even though I know it's not a typical style.
Blinds $1-$2, NL, 888 site. Full Ring, 10.15pm Table has a VPIP of about 26% and an average pot size of $32 or thereabouts.
Villain: UTG. Stats are 30% VPIP 9% raises. Aggression is about 1.7, which is slightly passive but not unduly so.
Villain ($218) limps for $2
Passed to Hero in MP2.
Hero ($200) (5h 5d) raises to $6
Passed round to Villain, who calls.
Flop comes 5c 6d 9c
Villain checks,
Hero bets $7
Villain raises to $14
Hero calls.
$42 in pot. Effective stack $180.
Turn Kd
Villain bets $36
Hero calls
$112 in pot, effective stack $144.
River 4h
Villain bets $70
Hero raises all-in to $144
Villain calls.
Villain shows 8s 7h for the flopped straigh
Hero mucks thee of a kind, fives.
Why the raise by me on the river? Well, to be frank, I don't know. I just knew that this was what I intended to do if a brick came on the river. It's not as if I didn't see the possible flopped straight; I just decided that he didn't have it. I was minorly scared of a set of nines or a set if sixes, and it was this and this alone that made me ponder just calling the river.
Sometimes I do this, and often I'm right, and I don't know why I take these views (given that opponent's play here is perfectly consistent with him flopping a straight). I can justify this to myself in metagame terms in that it's more likely to generate calls in future, but something in my head clearly felt that I was ahead of opponent's range?
But what am I actually beating? Not a lot. A bluff, obviously. A thin-value bluff (say, a pair of Kings bad kicker, pair of 10s, pair of 9s), and a lower set of 4s or 2s, but none of those hands fits with the check-raise on the flop.
I think that I've probably assigned an overpair to this guy (or, perhaps assumed that he has assigned me with and overpair/Ace-King) and that he has bet accordingly. In fact, he's just bet his hand in an ABC fashion. Meh. Lesson learnt.
___________
My short on Barclays (expires June, I think), has gained back about £150, and I'm letting it run. Definitely not one of my greatest bets of all time, though.
Poker has been a bit odd. I dropped over $300 yesterday after a nice run for a few days up to Tuesday at 10pm. $200 of the $300 was a single hand that I think I played badly, even though playing it very well would only have saved me $70. And there's a metagame factor involved.
I'll detail the hand later, but the most intersting thing about it was my lack of emotional involvement. Not only did I not go on tilt, but I woke up this morning trying to remember whether I had won or lost.
This could be a sign of incipient manicism or it could be a genuine inurement to my current stakes, where $200+ gains and losses are becoming somewhat run-of-the-mill.
Anyhoo, the hand went as follows. I've no worries or intention to alter any of my play before the river, even though I know it's not a typical style.
Blinds $1-$2, NL, 888 site. Full Ring, 10.15pm Table has a VPIP of about 26% and an average pot size of $32 or thereabouts.
Villain: UTG. Stats are 30% VPIP 9% raises. Aggression is about 1.7, which is slightly passive but not unduly so.
Villain ($218) limps for $2
Passed to Hero in MP2.
Hero ($200) (5h 5d) raises to $6
Passed round to Villain, who calls.
Flop comes 5c 6d 9c
Villain checks,
Hero bets $7
Villain raises to $14
Hero calls.
$42 in pot. Effective stack $180.
Turn Kd
Villain bets $36
Hero calls
$112 in pot, effective stack $144.
River 4h
Villain bets $70
Hero raises all-in to $144
Villain calls.
Villain shows 8s 7h for the flopped straigh
Hero mucks thee of a kind, fives.
Why the raise by me on the river? Well, to be frank, I don't know. I just knew that this was what I intended to do if a brick came on the river. It's not as if I didn't see the possible flopped straight; I just decided that he didn't have it. I was minorly scared of a set of nines or a set if sixes, and it was this and this alone that made me ponder just calling the river.
Sometimes I do this, and often I'm right, and I don't know why I take these views (given that opponent's play here is perfectly consistent with him flopping a straight). I can justify this to myself in metagame terms in that it's more likely to generate calls in future, but something in my head clearly felt that I was ahead of opponent's range?
But what am I actually beating? Not a lot. A bluff, obviously. A thin-value bluff (say, a pair of Kings bad kicker, pair of 10s, pair of 9s), and a lower set of 4s or 2s, but none of those hands fits with the check-raise on the flop.
I think that I've probably assigned an overpair to this guy (or, perhaps assumed that he has assigned me with and overpair/Ace-King) and that he has bet accordingly. In fact, he's just bet his hand in an ABC fashion. Meh. Lesson learnt.
___________
