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I'm just giving up on the market at the moment. I'm sure there's a reason for the FTSE 100 to be pushing 4700 (and see my Mrs Watanabe stuff yesterday); I'm sure there's good solid fundamental grounds for sterling to have fallen to $1.35 in March and to be back up above $1.70 today. I'm sure that the volatility in the oil price since January has closely followed fundamentals.
But, to be honest, I can't see what those reasons might be. Unlike the doomsters of last October, I thought then that there were good buying reasons and acted on them. But I can't see any reasons for optimism right now. Recoveries in numbers at companies have nothing to do with long-term sustainability. They are either about cost control (such as the hard running-down of inventories) or are short-term benefits because of quantitative easing. The stockmarket players are meant to look 18 months ahead, but at the moment they seem to be looking two days ahead.
Perhaps there's a bit of catastrophe theory in play here (tied in with game theory). Suppose everyone just reacted to news immediately, then the person who looked a day ahead would have an advantage, counterbalanced by the (small) chance that what is widely thought likely to happen, won't happen.
You then get into the standard "buy on rumour, sell on fact" scenario, where so much of the good news is factored into the price before the good news arrives, that when it does arrive, the price goes down.
But then you get into the longer term, where people start buying (or selling) based on the derivatives of acceleration or deterioration. "Yes, the market is deteriorating, but it's deteriorating slower this month than it did last month. BUY!!!"
And then you get into derivatives of derivatives, until you disappear up your own arse, at which point some kid, in a "the Emperor has no clothes" fashion, says "Oh, look, profits are up! Surely that means I should buy?" All time studies get thrown out of the window and everyone starts acting on the here and now.
I dunno, seems as good an explanation for the current silly bullishness as any other....
+++++++++
I suffered a misclick yesterday, the first as a result of severe multi-tabling. By way of an explanation, there were mitigating circumstances...
First, PA Hud wasn't working with Stars, so I was pissing around relaunching Table Manager, relaunching Hold Em Manager, all the time while sitting down at new tables, so I had eight tables running at the time.
At the particular table in question, I had a flush draw and a straight draw, so I called the turn bet because I was getting implied odds .... except that I didn't. What I had done was check the turn bet without remembering that I had done so. What in fact I had done was call opponent's river bet with the nut straight ... and he had top and middle two-pair as well. I guess that cost me about $30.
I then ran well on Stars (having fixed the HUD problem) and, about 400 hands in, found myself moving into weak-tight mode. This is better than "winner's tilt", but it's still a weakness.
Both the folds were marginal (one tactically, the other for metagame reasons) but, I am darned sure that if I had been $200 down rather than $200 up, I would have played them differently.
Hand one: I have QQ in the Big blind. $200 BI. Cut-off ($200 stack) raises to $8 and I reraise to $22. He reraises to $54. His steal ratio in CO/Button positions is about 28%. I fold. I'm probably worth one more bet here.
Hand two: I have AKo in the CO. I raise to $6 and Small Blind raises to $22. I fold. Small blind has a high steal ratio in CO and Button, and these players tend to reraise more often from the blinds. I'm definitely worth another bet here (nothing marginal about it), but the problem is that a small reraise that opponent cold-calls can put you in a difficult position against this kind of opponent on almost any flop apart from AAx, AKx or KKx. A small reraise to which opponent shoves also puts you in a tough position. A cold call by you is no good either. In other words, your reraise has to be lumpy and there is a strong argument for a shove. Remember, your AKo is still way ahead of opponent's range, but you are only likely to be either a small favourite or a small dog. What you really would like is to take it down here and now. A shove is probably positive EV to the tune of about ten bucks or so.
All of this seemed horrible to my mind and I really didn't feel like losing my session profit on a near coin-toss. This is a bad attitude to have. So I folded and I quit the tables for half an hour. Then I came back and picked up another hundred playing on Pacific.
In tactical terms, it was a dreadful fold, but strategically I think it was the right thing to do. A win would have pushed me towards winner's tilt and a loss would have pissed me off. But even better would have been for me to have recognized the mood coming on and to have quit the game even before the hand was dealt.
++++++++++++++++++++
News from Pittsburgh. Woman breaks off with man, thinks that he might be a bit upset, but that he will probably get over it in a week or two.
Man gets gun, goes to gym, shoots woman, shoots several others. shoots himself. Hmm, obviously he took it harder than she had initially thought.
Truly, women are from Venus, men are from Mars.
_________________
But, to be honest, I can't see what those reasons might be. Unlike the doomsters of last October, I thought then that there were good buying reasons and acted on them. But I can't see any reasons for optimism right now. Recoveries in numbers at companies have nothing to do with long-term sustainability. They are either about cost control (such as the hard running-down of inventories) or are short-term benefits because of quantitative easing. The stockmarket players are meant to look 18 months ahead, but at the moment they seem to be looking two days ahead.
Perhaps there's a bit of catastrophe theory in play here (tied in with game theory). Suppose everyone just reacted to news immediately, then the person who looked a day ahead would have an advantage, counterbalanced by the (small) chance that what is widely thought likely to happen, won't happen.
You then get into the standard "buy on rumour, sell on fact" scenario, where so much of the good news is factored into the price before the good news arrives, that when it does arrive, the price goes down.
But then you get into the longer term, where people start buying (or selling) based on the derivatives of acceleration or deterioration. "Yes, the market is deteriorating, but it's deteriorating slower this month than it did last month. BUY!!!"
And then you get into derivatives of derivatives, until you disappear up your own arse, at which point some kid, in a "the Emperor has no clothes" fashion, says "Oh, look, profits are up! Surely that means I should buy?" All time studies get thrown out of the window and everyone starts acting on the here and now.
I dunno, seems as good an explanation for the current silly bullishness as any other....
+++++++++
I suffered a misclick yesterday, the first as a result of severe multi-tabling. By way of an explanation, there were mitigating circumstances...
First, PA Hud wasn't working with Stars, so I was pissing around relaunching Table Manager, relaunching Hold Em Manager, all the time while sitting down at new tables, so I had eight tables running at the time.
At the particular table in question, I had a flush draw and a straight draw, so I called the turn bet because I was getting implied odds .... except that I didn't. What I had done was check the turn bet without remembering that I had done so. What in fact I had done was call opponent's river bet with the nut straight ... and he had top and middle two-pair as well. I guess that cost me about $30.
I then ran well on Stars (having fixed the HUD problem) and, about 400 hands in, found myself moving into weak-tight mode. This is better than "winner's tilt", but it's still a weakness.
Both the folds were marginal (one tactically, the other for metagame reasons) but, I am darned sure that if I had been $200 down rather than $200 up, I would have played them differently.
Hand one: I have QQ in the Big blind. $200 BI. Cut-off ($200 stack) raises to $8 and I reraise to $22. He reraises to $54. His steal ratio in CO/Button positions is about 28%. I fold. I'm probably worth one more bet here.
Hand two: I have AKo in the CO. I raise to $6 and Small Blind raises to $22. I fold. Small blind has a high steal ratio in CO and Button, and these players tend to reraise more often from the blinds. I'm definitely worth another bet here (nothing marginal about it), but the problem is that a small reraise that opponent cold-calls can put you in a difficult position against this kind of opponent on almost any flop apart from AAx, AKx or KKx. A small reraise to which opponent shoves also puts you in a tough position. A cold call by you is no good either. In other words, your reraise has to be lumpy and there is a strong argument for a shove. Remember, your AKo is still way ahead of opponent's range, but you are only likely to be either a small favourite or a small dog. What you really would like is to take it down here and now. A shove is probably positive EV to the tune of about ten bucks or so.
All of this seemed horrible to my mind and I really didn't feel like losing my session profit on a near coin-toss. This is a bad attitude to have. So I folded and I quit the tables for half an hour. Then I came back and picked up another hundred playing on Pacific.
In tactical terms, it was a dreadful fold, but strategically I think it was the right thing to do. A win would have pushed me towards winner's tilt and a loss would have pissed me off. But even better would have been for me to have recognized the mood coming on and to have quit the game even before the hand was dealt.
++++++++++++++++++++
News from Pittsburgh. Woman breaks off with man, thinks that he might be a bit upset, but that he will probably get over it in a week or two.
Man gets gun, goes to gym, shoots woman, shoots several others. shoots himself. Hmm, obviously he took it harder than she had initially thought.
Truly, women are from Venus, men are from Mars.
_________________
