Hard way to make an easy living

Thin green line is All-in EV (actually this is slightly flawed and should be about $300 higher, because HEM has difficulty coping with pots where you go all-in pre-flop against a small stack and later go all-in against a big stack. When the final all-in occurs, it calculates your equity against both small stack and big stack, rather than calculating two separate equities. EG. I had AA vs QQ (big stack) and 44 (small stack). I raised, qq called, 44 went all-in, I mini-reraised. QQ calls. Flop comes J42. I go all-in, QQ calls. I end up winning on the hand, but HEM puts my "equity" at about 10%, because it thinks I only have four outs against the smaller stack).

Thick green line is actual winnings. A good example to you of how luck can play such a large part in short-term results -- and a big indication of how live players could run good for a year or so, without realizing that they have been lucky rather than good.



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Update: Ran okay yesterday, ran shit this morning. All getting a bit dispiriting, even though I know that, eventually, it will pass. Mind you, I found myself playing on a very lively $1-$2 table where I dropped $200 but could just have easily won $400. That said, I really shoould learn to adapt my playing style quickly when I spot that I am at a table with three not incompetent lags.

I misplayed one hand, but, when you are running good, it can look inspired.

I was UTG+1 with TT. UTG limped and I raised to 3x. This was (predictably) called in three spots and then (equally predictably) raised to 13x by the big blind (Fishandchips, an old UK adversary). UTG promptly calls. Now, when you are fairly sure that you are going to get at least two other calls behind you, you can risk putting in 12% of your stack before you see a card. So I did.

Two players call behind, making it a 52BB pot, with me sitting on about 86BB.

Flop came A73 rainbow.

Big blind checks, UTG checks. I bet 32BB.

Wrong or right?

Well, if everyone folds, it looks brilliant. I've got nice a leverage threat (54BB behind) and the flop makes it look as if I have some kind of made hand rather than a draw.

But if you get a flat call behind you, it doesn't look so good.

That's what I got, and I decided that discretion was the better part of valour against these guys. Even if opponent isn't playing a set cagily, I may walk into a stubborn sonofabith who calls me with A8.

In metagame terms the bet isn't so bad -- it will encourage people to call big bets on the flop with hands that I beat. But really I don't think that this was one of my finest hours. It was, if you like, an example of hour six weeks of relentless shit wears down your feeling for the game.

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I actually played three heads up sitngoes over the weekend, on the netbook while watching TV. It will take some time to get the hang of how opponents play (and to get the hang of the game myself!) but early impressions were that at baby levels ($10 buy in) the opposition wasn't too frightening. So far I've re-upped on the Moshman book, and just following some general principles looks good enough. I'm probably playing a bit looser than he recommends when I have position and a bit tighter than he recommends when I don't -- that's mainly because of my comfort zone.

All in all it was quite fun, but it's no way to make a living. Either you four-table at, say $20 and win 60% at least of the games you play, or you play fewer tables at much higher levels (with the concomitant improvement in the quality of your opponents).

Life and poker bankrolls are taking a hell of a hammering, with news that the rent from downstairs is going to be somewhat less over the next couple of months because of maintenance work being an added pain in the bum. Oh well, these things are sent to try us....

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Further update Nov 24th. The nightmare continues.

This is meant to happen to other people, not to me. A couple of standard coolers tonight where opponents effectively made there mistake pre-flop (case 1) or on the turn (case 2), so I got stacked off in both. I think I hit three sets in 1000 hands and lost with all of them. Marvellous.

It's beginning to affect my sleep, and last night I kind of dreamt about it (except that I was playing live, and I confused an 8 card with an "18" card.... go figure).

I'll say one thing; my end-of-year graph is going to look like no other graph of mine from 2001 through to 2008. Lucky that I keep a super high bankroll...... But my confidence is taking a real hammering. It's so hard to keep yourself out of the famous Caro slough of despair, and so hard not to become a fatalistic calling station.

In that sense, I think that I did okay over this last session. But that didn't make it any less depressing. Am now running towards 4 losing weeks on the spin (unheard of), and two four-figure losses week on week (unheard of), a 20 buy-in downswing (unheard of) and so on and so on. I know that it will end, but I just wish that it would hurry up! Perhaps the beginning of December will be the sign.

I start each day in the right frame of mind. None of this "I'll just try not to lose". No becoming more passive, no becoming ultra-laggy. Just steady as she goes, with perhaps a few less of the "vclever-clever" plays and perhaps just a bit more ABC tight-aggressive. It makes no difference. I still get slaughtered. Sigh. Kill me now.

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