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In need of narrative
Feb. 19th, 2010 09:27 amIt's been said before, but it merits saying again every few months, just to remind people that history is written by the victors: Nearly all the great success stories, in anything, ignore the far larger number of people who tried and failed. When the person who is interviewed is asked to what he (or she) attributes his or her success, the replies usually involve "hard work and talent" and not much else. Definitely not the "oh, and I was fucking lucky" line.
It's much harder to get accurate stats from the other side, because the failures are usually not heard from again.
But three recent events emphasize that, when meejuh people (or bloggists) start from the beginning, rather than from the end, then the chances of a success story are thin indeed.
Here's one guy who tried to make it as a pro player:
http://whiteheatsyd.blogspot.com/
Then there was the "$2m in two months" TV series. Also a fail, despite, to my mind, a not particularly onerous target (hell, four apparently top-flight players playing poker for eight weeks doesn't seem to me to add up to a desperately difficult hourly rate requirement at today's nosebleed stakes).
And this morning we have interactive investor's end-of-coverage of Slackbelly's attempt to double his £5k in a couple of weeks of day-trading and margin spreadbetting.
http://www.iii.co.uk/specials/specialdisplay.jsp?special_id=10076866
Guess what? He went skint.
I write these things partly to remind myself that I have not failed by not reaching higher levels of winnings (say, "only" 30 cents a hand as BDD once termed Clarkatroid's performance), but that I have succeeded far far better than thousands of others who have tried, failed, and never been heard from again. Eventually, of course, one has two outcomes. Either you stop where you are for not going higher and curse yourself in later years for your cowardice, or you push yourself higher and, eventually, you fail.
What's the answer? The answer is, of course, not to curse yourself for stopping at a winning level and sticking to it, despite the urgings from others to move up a level. Unfortunately, I don't think I have that confidence in myself. So, paradoxically, you end up going higher through a lack of confidence in yourself (bowing to peer pressure of the "expected") rather than because you believe it's the right thing to do.
______________
It's much harder to get accurate stats from the other side, because the failures are usually not heard from again.
But three recent events emphasize that, when meejuh people (or bloggists) start from the beginning, rather than from the end, then the chances of a success story are thin indeed.
Here's one guy who tried to make it as a pro player:
http://whiteheatsyd.blogspot.com/
Then there was the "$2m in two months" TV series. Also a fail, despite, to my mind, a not particularly onerous target (hell, four apparently top-flight players playing poker for eight weeks doesn't seem to me to add up to a desperately difficult hourly rate requirement at today's nosebleed stakes).
And this morning we have interactive investor's end-of-coverage of Slackbelly's attempt to double his £5k in a couple of weeks of day-trading and margin spreadbetting.
http://www.iii.co.uk/specials/specialdisplay.jsp?special_id=10076866
Guess what? He went skint.
I write these things partly to remind myself that I have not failed by not reaching higher levels of winnings (say, "only" 30 cents a hand as BDD once termed Clarkatroid's performance), but that I have succeeded far far better than thousands of others who have tried, failed, and never been heard from again. Eventually, of course, one has two outcomes. Either you stop where you are for not going higher and curse yourself in later years for your cowardice, or you push yourself higher and, eventually, you fail.
What's the answer? The answer is, of course, not to curse yourself for stopping at a winning level and sticking to it, despite the urgings from others to move up a level. Unfortunately, I don't think I have that confidence in myself. So, paradoxically, you end up going higher through a lack of confidence in yourself (bowing to peer pressure of the "expected") rather than because you believe it's the right thing to do.
______________
