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The price is a secret
Jul. 9th, 2011 04:15 pmI made one of my more dutiful trips into Lewisham Shopping Centre yesterday. "Dutiful" shopping basically entails anything that does not involve visiting a bookshop. You see student gang members practising their swaggering gait and the wearing of low-slung trousers (hint, they use a concealed bit of string at the front to keep them from falling down -- surreptitious use of a small-but-sharp pair of scissors could reduce gangland swagger to embarrassed trouser-holding within minutes). You see airhead girls looking for some kind of fashion that they can afford that lets them pretend that they are like their talentless airhead heroes on The Only Way Is Essex. And, of course, you see the elderly mobility scooter racers who seem to think that seven miles an hour is a minimum speed on a crowded pavement. The person who described going shopping as "fun" was clearly mentally ill.
This particular journey required me to make one of the worst parts of dutiful shopping -- a visit to the Post Office. Of course, Lewisham doesn't have a Post Office any more. The Post Office was packed and WH Smith was empty, so they merged the two. I don't think that I've been to the Post Office for three years, but my recollections of the last time I went were not pleasant. This time round I had to go because my driving licence needed renewing and the Post Office offering seemed likely to be the most error-proof. I reckoned that 3pm on a Friday might be a good metagame time to go there. The pension collectors arrive early in the morning and the business users (or amateurs trying to make a living on eBay) would probably have got everything done.
That, at least, turned out to be the right decision. And the staff were rather efficient, TBH, as well as courteous. Clearly the Post Office has been implementing some customer-service training in the past few years. Or maybe male African counterhands just tend to be more helpful. Who knows.
Another required purchase was a pair of trousers. I wore three different pairs of trousers to work this week and decided that all three of them had to go - for reasons of comfort (lack thereof) or style (lack thereof). Part of the problem is that my stomach is, er, somewhat flatter than it was a few months ago (although, to my concern, it still looks horrifically pot-bellied to me). This means that, although 34-inch trousers still fit me -- albeit somewhat looser than they did -- the waistband tends to sit considerably higher on my body. That results in trouser bottoms that look like they have had a row with my shoes and have opted for a trial separation. My 32-inch waist trousers (of which I have a couple of pairs) are still a little tight for everyday wear, so I decided that a trek to buy a couple of 34x32 pairs (I used to buy 34x30) was necessary.
Well, I only managed one pair, and that was in BHS. My shopping willpower for clothes then vanished. And BHS no longer does trouser lengths -- just short, regular, and long. I half-measured some 34S (the only pair the shop had available -- another store heading for the knacker's yard, I suspect) against my legs, and bought them on spec. Haven't tried them on yet, though.
On the way back I noticed a Holland & Barrett in the shopping centre. I had it in my head that the nearest H&B was in Blackheath. There were a couple of things that I wanted to pick up, so I popped in.
H&B have a bit of a hold on certain products -- no-one else sells them in shopping centres or supermarkets. Whey Protein and Amino Acid muscle-builder tablets are two of them. They also do a nice line in muesli constituents at a reasonable price (well, cheaper than Tesco).
When I write "cheaper than Tesco" I am, actually, guessing. This is because one of the most annoying things about H&B is that it's impossible to work out how much you are going to pay for something. The company -- and this is far and away the most irritating thing about Holland & Barrett -- uses its pricing power not to ostensibly rip you off, but to try to fool you into thinking that you are getting a bargain.
So, I picked up some pumpkin seeds (reasonably, but not generously, priced at £6.50) and sunflower seeds (similarly at £5.09). However, if I bought one thing I got the second at half price. So that meant I paid £9.05 for the pair. How much did I pay for each? Well, to calculate that is beyond my mental calculation abilities. Indeed, even now I'd have to fire up the spreadsheet to get the ratios calculated (650/1159 = ?/905) and (509/1159 = ?/905).
But that was as nothing to the purchase of the whey protein (list "anchor" price way too high at £34.99) and amino acid tablets (list price way too high at £13.50). For, not only did I get the "buy one and get the second at half price" offer, but if I bought the magazine "Healthy For Men" for 99p, then I got £4 off the amino acid tablets and 50% off the whey protein. And, on top of that, I got the "buy one get the seond one at half price" as well. With me so far? I can't see how, because I wasn't with me, and neither was the cashier.
So, in theory, how much did I save? There was a list price on all four items of a staggering £60, give or take a few pence, and my bill was £30.30. I guess I was meant to be dancing out of there thinking that I'd "saved" £30. But in fact I'd saved fuck-all. What I had in my bag was probably worth £30, give or take a couple of quid. But I had very little idea how much each individual item had cost me. For Holland & Barrett, that is the secret. How do you measure inflation when it's impossible to tell how much something really cost you, even after you bought it? H&B could remove some of these giant discounts, cut its prices by 5%, and yet have a higher profit margin. Is that inflation or deflation? You decide.
+++++++++++++++
Mr Nye said yesterday or the day before that he was feeling somewhat "Pooterish". I was also feeling something of a lack. I do not lack friends, although I think that it might be an idea if I mixed more with my own kind than with younger people. I suffer from two distinct disadvantages here. (1) I am in my mid-fifties, so that the younger people crowd in London, although (I hope!) they find my company acceptable, and not too old-bloke curmudgeonly, they still don't really know what to do with me. As such, I am inevitably excluded from many things that they do, not through unkindness, but probably because of a "oh, it wouldn't suit him" attitude. (2) I am single, not part of a couple. This also makes people uncomfortable - a single bloke is bad enough at many of these things if he is in his thirties, but a single bloke in his fifties, even if you get along with him, is a bit too close to bringing your dad along. And, finally (3) I don't drink -- a factor that still makes many in their thirties (most of whom are still drinking) both uncomfortable and slightly guilt-ridden. I am, as it were, one of the casualties, albeit walking wounded, of what "hard drinking" can do to you. If you are in your mid-thirties and are still drinking as if you were in your mid-twenties, this is not a recipe for a comfortable social occasion whern I am in attendance - the ghost at Banquo's feast, indeed. (Oddly, I get on better with those in their 20s, perhaps because there is less of a discomfort zone for them. With people in their thirties I'm too young to be of their parents' generation, but too old to be "a mate". For people in their 20s, I AM in their parents' generation, and I can be treated accordingly).
So, well, fuck it. I think that I might actually take up something else this autumn -- the piano is a great joy and solace for me, but it's very isolationist. One thing that I have learnt from my current exercise regime is that my balance needs work (or, for the cognoscenti among you, my 'core' muscle groups). Although pilates yoga is an obvious candidate here, I fear that I would be a square peg in a round hole, and I don't fancy the idea of being the only fifty-something bloke in a class of late-twenties women petrified that the next generation of girls is coming along just a little bit too quickly, and that their stomach just doesn't seem as flat as it used to be.
However, dance has an appeal. Not line-dancing, obv. And not traditional tea-dance ballroom -- it just wouldn't be for me. I'd actually like to learn 'proper' dance, but I may be too old for that, and I should begin to realize my limitations. Salsa is the current 'amateur' fad (although 'tap' is another option) and I wouldn't mind giving that a go. I'd just hope that there aren't too many 20-something or 30-something people there, and that there will be a few more people my age.
I can imagine those of you who have managed to get this far (for which, since this is an excessively narcissistic post, I congratulate you) wondering "what on earth is he worried about? What could be better than being a bloke in a class of beautiful late-20-year-olds?" But, well, I'm getting a bit fed up with being the odd one out, TBH.
It's a bit sad how over the years I have lost touch with so many people of my generation. Part of this is my penance, I guess. But from the early days of the Diplomacy hobby, there's only Craig, Geoff C, Ron and Greg left. Of the "second generation" there are a few more - Brian, John Dodds, John Harrington, Mikey, Paul, Pete Berlin, Brian Dolton, Bryan Betts. But many of these have virtually become Christmas card acquaintances or "Facebook friends". With the death of Richard in 2003 the social circle virtually ended, and some friendships that I really valued have vanished in the wind. Perhaps that's the way it is for all people, but I do seem to have lost contact with a large number of people over the years (although thankfully the wonders of Facebook and Linked In have helped me reestablish some friendships). I know virtually no-one from my undergraduate days and very few from my post-grad days (well, just Rich Moore and Colin, basically). I'm losing touch with ex-girlfriends like it's going out of fashion. Once they find new relationships, things obviously get difficult. I used to think that it was my drinking that caused this, and perhaps it was. But sobriety doesn't seem to have made much difference. People still fade away. I guess that I'm not that good at this wide circle of friends thing. Certainly I'm fairly good at not getting invited back. So, value those who value you (no matter how old they are), is my motto from now on. Friendship for networking sake, do not apply.
+++++++++
On the weight-training side, I was most disappointed at the impact of just taking a week off my exercise and diet regime when I was in Bermuda. Only now (three weeks later) am I back to roughly where I was before leaving, although perhaps my strength has gone up a fraction. I just can't afford to give up whole months like that. And so, in my typically obsessive manner, I'm looking to get better faster. If this means a stricter focus on diet and training, then so be it.
I'm definitely getting stronger in the upper and lower body, although the speed of improvement is frustratingly slow. I'm coming to grips with the effect of certain training strategies. Pushing for a personal best in any strength- (rather than stamina-) related exercise seems to have a "zapping" effect on the body. I had a decent sleep last night. Got up. Played 90 minutes on Stars. Went to gym after the requisite carbohydrate intake, and did a tough session that included a personal best lat pulldown (a rep of 5 pulldowns at 65kg). Promptly came home, read my free FT (one of the benefits of going to the gym on Saturday!) and then had to go back to bed at 11am. Slept for two and a half hours. Wow. Other tough sessions (no personal bests, but an hour of focus on one particular muscle group) don't have that immediate effect, but creep up on you. Within 24 hours those muscles ache like shit, and it takes 72 hours to recover fully.
PS, managed a personal best of 17:21 for 4k on rowing machine on Wednesday, (equates to 2:10.2 per 500m) and this was solely down to improved upper body strength. My "pull-through" was faster and I maintained about 22 strokes per minute throughout. So, I know that I AM improving (the numbers on everything say so, except the scales!), but some days it just doesn't feel like it.
+++++++++++
Poker has been going okay for a few weeks now. The disastrous start to the month (six buy-ins down within a few hours!) was pulled back to 1.5 buy-ins down at the end of day one, and a quick move into profit since then. I'm now well into the black in open play at $50 buy-in on Stars, but I have a 20 buy-in deficit still to make up on Party. There's some modest bonuses doing the rounds in the wake of the Full Tilt fiasco (plus some total bollocks from some of the incompetent players -- Victor Chandler and Paradise spring to mind). That helps the bottom line, but the important thing is to get into the black in open play. That, basically, is the baseline. If you aren't winning in open play, either you should be playing at a lower level, or playing fewer tables, or you shouldn't be playing at all. I've both dropped a level AND cut down on the number of open tables. This definitely gives me more time to think and to make table-specific plays. Since the margin is so thin (a single standard deviation per hour is about 25 times as large as your target open-play profit, is my rough calculation) just one or two 'better' decisions per hour (out of some 600 decisions per hour) can make the difference between expected profit and expected loss. The additional money 'gained back' through Stars' and Party's cunning rakeback structure, which favours significant multi-tabling and playing for long hours, does not compensate for the margin that you give up in open play.
So, for now, my target is very modest; to get into open-play profit at $50, then to reduce the open-play deficit at $100 by a significant amount by the end of the year. My current regime of eight-tabling Stars and six-tabling Party is 'comfortable', although I have to be careful that no more than one or two of the tables on Party (two or three of the tables on Stars) are "speed" tables. If I manage that, the bottom line should take care of itself by the end of the year and I should be back into a (very) modest profit for the whole year. We shall see.
______________
This particular journey required me to make one of the worst parts of dutiful shopping -- a visit to the Post Office. Of course, Lewisham doesn't have a Post Office any more. The Post Office was packed and WH Smith was empty, so they merged the two. I don't think that I've been to the Post Office for three years, but my recollections of the last time I went were not pleasant. This time round I had to go because my driving licence needed renewing and the Post Office offering seemed likely to be the most error-proof. I reckoned that 3pm on a Friday might be a good metagame time to go there. The pension collectors arrive early in the morning and the business users (or amateurs trying to make a living on eBay) would probably have got everything done.
That, at least, turned out to be the right decision. And the staff were rather efficient, TBH, as well as courteous. Clearly the Post Office has been implementing some customer-service training in the past few years. Or maybe male African counterhands just tend to be more helpful. Who knows.
Another required purchase was a pair of trousers. I wore three different pairs of trousers to work this week and decided that all three of them had to go - for reasons of comfort (lack thereof) or style (lack thereof). Part of the problem is that my stomach is, er, somewhat flatter than it was a few months ago (although, to my concern, it still looks horrifically pot-bellied to me). This means that, although 34-inch trousers still fit me -- albeit somewhat looser than they did -- the waistband tends to sit considerably higher on my body. That results in trouser bottoms that look like they have had a row with my shoes and have opted for a trial separation. My 32-inch waist trousers (of which I have a couple of pairs) are still a little tight for everyday wear, so I decided that a trek to buy a couple of 34x32 pairs (I used to buy 34x30) was necessary.
Well, I only managed one pair, and that was in BHS. My shopping willpower for clothes then vanished. And BHS no longer does trouser lengths -- just short, regular, and long. I half-measured some 34S (the only pair the shop had available -- another store heading for the knacker's yard, I suspect) against my legs, and bought them on spec. Haven't tried them on yet, though.
On the way back I noticed a Holland & Barrett in the shopping centre. I had it in my head that the nearest H&B was in Blackheath. There were a couple of things that I wanted to pick up, so I popped in.
H&B have a bit of a hold on certain products -- no-one else sells them in shopping centres or supermarkets. Whey Protein and Amino Acid muscle-builder tablets are two of them. They also do a nice line in muesli constituents at a reasonable price (well, cheaper than Tesco).
When I write "cheaper than Tesco" I am, actually, guessing. This is because one of the most annoying things about H&B is that it's impossible to work out how much you are going to pay for something. The company -- and this is far and away the most irritating thing about Holland & Barrett -- uses its pricing power not to ostensibly rip you off, but to try to fool you into thinking that you are getting a bargain.
So, I picked up some pumpkin seeds (reasonably, but not generously, priced at £6.50) and sunflower seeds (similarly at £5.09). However, if I bought one thing I got the second at half price. So that meant I paid £9.05 for the pair. How much did I pay for each? Well, to calculate that is beyond my mental calculation abilities. Indeed, even now I'd have to fire up the spreadsheet to get the ratios calculated (650/1159 = ?/905) and (509/1159 = ?/905).
But that was as nothing to the purchase of the whey protein (list "anchor" price way too high at £34.99) and amino acid tablets (list price way too high at £13.50). For, not only did I get the "buy one and get the second at half price" offer, but if I bought the magazine "Healthy For Men" for 99p, then I got £4 off the amino acid tablets and 50% off the whey protein. And, on top of that, I got the "buy one get the seond one at half price" as well. With me so far? I can't see how, because I wasn't with me, and neither was the cashier.
So, in theory, how much did I save? There was a list price on all four items of a staggering £60, give or take a few pence, and my bill was £30.30. I guess I was meant to be dancing out of there thinking that I'd "saved" £30. But in fact I'd saved fuck-all. What I had in my bag was probably worth £30, give or take a couple of quid. But I had very little idea how much each individual item had cost me. For Holland & Barrett, that is the secret. How do you measure inflation when it's impossible to tell how much something really cost you, even after you bought it? H&B could remove some of these giant discounts, cut its prices by 5%, and yet have a higher profit margin. Is that inflation or deflation? You decide.
+++++++++++++++
Mr Nye said yesterday or the day before that he was feeling somewhat "Pooterish". I was also feeling something of a lack. I do not lack friends, although I think that it might be an idea if I mixed more with my own kind than with younger people. I suffer from two distinct disadvantages here. (1) I am in my mid-fifties, so that the younger people crowd in London, although (I hope!) they find my company acceptable, and not too old-bloke curmudgeonly, they still don't really know what to do with me. As such, I am inevitably excluded from many things that they do, not through unkindness, but probably because of a "oh, it wouldn't suit him" attitude. (2) I am single, not part of a couple. This also makes people uncomfortable - a single bloke is bad enough at many of these things if he is in his thirties, but a single bloke in his fifties, even if you get along with him, is a bit too close to bringing your dad along. And, finally (3) I don't drink -- a factor that still makes many in their thirties (most of whom are still drinking) both uncomfortable and slightly guilt-ridden. I am, as it were, one of the casualties, albeit walking wounded, of what "hard drinking" can do to you. If you are in your mid-thirties and are still drinking as if you were in your mid-twenties, this is not a recipe for a comfortable social occasion whern I am in attendance - the ghost at Banquo's feast, indeed. (Oddly, I get on better with those in their 20s, perhaps because there is less of a discomfort zone for them. With people in their thirties I'm too young to be of their parents' generation, but too old to be "a mate". For people in their 20s, I AM in their parents' generation, and I can be treated accordingly).
So, well, fuck it. I think that I might actually take up something else this autumn -- the piano is a great joy and solace for me, but it's very isolationist. One thing that I have learnt from my current exercise regime is that my balance needs work (or, for the cognoscenti among you, my 'core' muscle groups). Although pilates yoga is an obvious candidate here, I fear that I would be a square peg in a round hole, and I don't fancy the idea of being the only fifty-something bloke in a class of late-twenties women petrified that the next generation of girls is coming along just a little bit too quickly, and that their stomach just doesn't seem as flat as it used to be.
However, dance has an appeal. Not line-dancing, obv. And not traditional tea-dance ballroom -- it just wouldn't be for me. I'd actually like to learn 'proper' dance, but I may be too old for that, and I should begin to realize my limitations. Salsa is the current 'amateur' fad (although 'tap' is another option) and I wouldn't mind giving that a go. I'd just hope that there aren't too many 20-something or 30-something people there, and that there will be a few more people my age.
I can imagine those of you who have managed to get this far (for which, since this is an excessively narcissistic post, I congratulate you) wondering "what on earth is he worried about? What could be better than being a bloke in a class of beautiful late-20-year-olds?" But, well, I'm getting a bit fed up with being the odd one out, TBH.
It's a bit sad how over the years I have lost touch with so many people of my generation. Part of this is my penance, I guess. But from the early days of the Diplomacy hobby, there's only Craig, Geoff C, Ron and Greg left. Of the "second generation" there are a few more - Brian, John Dodds, John Harrington, Mikey, Paul, Pete Berlin, Brian Dolton, Bryan Betts. But many of these have virtually become Christmas card acquaintances or "Facebook friends". With the death of Richard in 2003 the social circle virtually ended, and some friendships that I really valued have vanished in the wind. Perhaps that's the way it is for all people, but I do seem to have lost contact with a large number of people over the years (although thankfully the wonders of Facebook and Linked In have helped me reestablish some friendships). I know virtually no-one from my undergraduate days and very few from my post-grad days (well, just Rich Moore and Colin, basically). I'm losing touch with ex-girlfriends like it's going out of fashion. Once they find new relationships, things obviously get difficult. I used to think that it was my drinking that caused this, and perhaps it was. But sobriety doesn't seem to have made much difference. People still fade away. I guess that I'm not that good at this wide circle of friends thing. Certainly I'm fairly good at not getting invited back. So, value those who value you (no matter how old they are), is my motto from now on. Friendship for networking sake, do not apply.
+++++++++
On the weight-training side, I was most disappointed at the impact of just taking a week off my exercise and diet regime when I was in Bermuda. Only now (three weeks later) am I back to roughly where I was before leaving, although perhaps my strength has gone up a fraction. I just can't afford to give up whole months like that. And so, in my typically obsessive manner, I'm looking to get better faster. If this means a stricter focus on diet and training, then so be it.
I'm definitely getting stronger in the upper and lower body, although the speed of improvement is frustratingly slow. I'm coming to grips with the effect of certain training strategies. Pushing for a personal best in any strength- (rather than stamina-) related exercise seems to have a "zapping" effect on the body. I had a decent sleep last night. Got up. Played 90 minutes on Stars. Went to gym after the requisite carbohydrate intake, and did a tough session that included a personal best lat pulldown (a rep of 5 pulldowns at 65kg). Promptly came home, read my free FT (one of the benefits of going to the gym on Saturday!) and then had to go back to bed at 11am. Slept for two and a half hours. Wow. Other tough sessions (no personal bests, but an hour of focus on one particular muscle group) don't have that immediate effect, but creep up on you. Within 24 hours those muscles ache like shit, and it takes 72 hours to recover fully.
PS, managed a personal best of 17:21 for 4k on rowing machine on Wednesday, (equates to 2:10.2 per 500m) and this was solely down to improved upper body strength. My "pull-through" was faster and I maintained about 22 strokes per minute throughout. So, I know that I AM improving (the numbers on everything say so, except the scales!), but some days it just doesn't feel like it.
+++++++++++
Poker has been going okay for a few weeks now. The disastrous start to the month (six buy-ins down within a few hours!) was pulled back to 1.5 buy-ins down at the end of day one, and a quick move into profit since then. I'm now well into the black in open play at $50 buy-in on Stars, but I have a 20 buy-in deficit still to make up on Party. There's some modest bonuses doing the rounds in the wake of the Full Tilt fiasco (plus some total bollocks from some of the incompetent players -- Victor Chandler and Paradise spring to mind). That helps the bottom line, but the important thing is to get into the black in open play. That, basically, is the baseline. If you aren't winning in open play, either you should be playing at a lower level, or playing fewer tables, or you shouldn't be playing at all. I've both dropped a level AND cut down on the number of open tables. This definitely gives me more time to think and to make table-specific plays. Since the margin is so thin (a single standard deviation per hour is about 25 times as large as your target open-play profit, is my rough calculation) just one or two 'better' decisions per hour (out of some 600 decisions per hour) can make the difference between expected profit and expected loss. The additional money 'gained back' through Stars' and Party's cunning rakeback structure, which favours significant multi-tabling and playing for long hours, does not compensate for the margin that you give up in open play.
So, for now, my target is very modest; to get into open-play profit at $50, then to reduce the open-play deficit at $100 by a significant amount by the end of the year. My current regime of eight-tabling Stars and six-tabling Party is 'comfortable', although I have to be careful that no more than one or two of the tables on Party (two or three of the tables on Stars) are "speed" tables. If I manage that, the bottom line should take care of itself by the end of the year and I should be back into a (very) modest profit for the whole year. We shall see.
______________
