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Easy easing
Oct. 7th, 2011 12:12 amWell, Dexia effectively went bust (see my post on September 18th). The BoE comes out with some more Quantitative Easing, which had the predictable effect on the stockmarket (up nearly 200 points), because the same thing will happen as happened last time -- the extra money sloshing around will go into equities. Or London property. Whatever. What it won't do is kick-start the economy.
I bottled it on my short euro position. The retracement of 3 cents against the dollar was one cent more than I was comfortable with, so I shut the lot down for an overall £1,200 gain (down from a £2,000 gain). I still think that we'll see $1.25 to €1 eventually, but I'm no longer so sure that it's going to be a smooth path. So, await developments and perhaps move back in when the position looks right. It looks to me as if the forthcoming news will be vaguely euro-positive, before the next wave of "omigod the euro is total shit" sentiment hits the streets. That this will come is certain. When it will come is harder to divine. I can't see euro-dollar going back above $1.45, and I'd probably lay money against it going above $1.42. Certainly if we do see those levels over the next three months I shall be moving back into the market.
After a horrible September at cards I've been trundling away at $50 buy in, solely because it at least seems to be my base level of "at least this I can beat". I've now returned to this level three times after bad runs (2008, twice,and now 2011) which means, I suppose, that there is hope that I shall one day once again return to the higher levels where in 2009 I seemed to sweep all before me (= ran good). I like the Big Dave solution -- far fewer tables, significantly higher stakes – but I just haven't got the confidence at the moment. By this, what I mean is, you have to be able to sit down, go $1,500 to $2,000 up, and be willing to carry on playing if you know that you are plus EV. Not only that, but you have to be able to carry on playing the right way. At the moment, I'd either be tempted to leave, or (worse) make myself stay, but start playing weak-tight.
The death of Steve Jobs made me think about things. I looked around the office and saw myself, basically frittering away the finite number of days I have leaft on this earth. At what point do I say "sod this, I have enough" and get out there to do something that is less unstimulating than my life at the moment? At what point do I have the courage to throw off the security blanket that I have so carefully constructed in the 12 years that I have not been drinking? At what point, in other words, do I start taking risks again? Because, let's face it, what I have at the moment is what my mum probably thinks I should be satisfied with. Whereas I find it deeply unsatisfying. At heart I probably want to go out there and make a few millions from property. I reckon that, with some hard work, I could do it. It's all about leverage. But, then again, there's a chance of going broke. And going broke in your mid-fifties is bad news indeed. But then I look at the alternative -- which just feels like fossilizing within my own, paid-for, three-bedroom flat, saying "I've gone two buy-ins up! Deal me out!" And I feel like a wimp.
Oh well, we only get one shot on this earth. I've learnt a few things about myself this year, and a few more in the past month. And one of those things is, basically, you've got to decide what you want and go out there to get it. And don't let anyone, or anything, divert you from that aim. This time round, I might actually do it.
__________________
I bottled it on my short euro position. The retracement of 3 cents against the dollar was one cent more than I was comfortable with, so I shut the lot down for an overall £1,200 gain (down from a £2,000 gain). I still think that we'll see $1.25 to €1 eventually, but I'm no longer so sure that it's going to be a smooth path. So, await developments and perhaps move back in when the position looks right. It looks to me as if the forthcoming news will be vaguely euro-positive, before the next wave of "omigod the euro is total shit" sentiment hits the streets. That this will come is certain. When it will come is harder to divine. I can't see euro-dollar going back above $1.45, and I'd probably lay money against it going above $1.42. Certainly if we do see those levels over the next three months I shall be moving back into the market.
After a horrible September at cards I've been trundling away at $50 buy in, solely because it at least seems to be my base level of "at least this I can beat". I've now returned to this level three times after bad runs (2008, twice,and now 2011) which means, I suppose, that there is hope that I shall one day once again return to the higher levels where in 2009 I seemed to sweep all before me (= ran good). I like the Big Dave solution -- far fewer tables, significantly higher stakes – but I just haven't got the confidence at the moment. By this, what I mean is, you have to be able to sit down, go $1,500 to $2,000 up, and be willing to carry on playing if you know that you are plus EV. Not only that, but you have to be able to carry on playing the right way. At the moment, I'd either be tempted to leave, or (worse) make myself stay, but start playing weak-tight.
The death of Steve Jobs made me think about things. I looked around the office and saw myself, basically frittering away the finite number of days I have leaft on this earth. At what point do I say "sod this, I have enough" and get out there to do something that is less unstimulating than my life at the moment? At what point do I have the courage to throw off the security blanket that I have so carefully constructed in the 12 years that I have not been drinking? At what point, in other words, do I start taking risks again? Because, let's face it, what I have at the moment is what my mum probably thinks I should be satisfied with. Whereas I find it deeply unsatisfying. At heart I probably want to go out there and make a few millions from property. I reckon that, with some hard work, I could do it. It's all about leverage. But, then again, there's a chance of going broke. And going broke in your mid-fifties is bad news indeed. But then I look at the alternative -- which just feels like fossilizing within my own, paid-for, three-bedroom flat, saying "I've gone two buy-ins up! Deal me out!" And I feel like a wimp.
Oh well, we only get one shot on this earth. I've learnt a few things about myself this year, and a few more in the past month. And one of those things is, basically, you've got to decide what you want and go out there to get it. And don't let anyone, or anything, divert you from that aim. This time round, I might actually do it.
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