Unlucky For Some?
Mar. 19th, 2007 08:24 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksI've long been of the opinion that our formative experiences at various types of poker dictate our specialties. I can throw out countless reasons why I play cash rather than tournaments, including the "I don't like the timetable" aspect of it, plus the "the problem with tournaments is that you virtually always walk away from it feeling pissed off at your elimination" factor.
However, I reckon that the main reason for my preference for cash games is that, when I came back into poker (in a serious way) in 1999, I was unlucky in tournaments. When I started playing limit online on Paradise in 2000, I was lucky. So, short-term variance dictated long-term commitment.
And this becomes self-reinforcing. I became more practised at cash games, so I got better. Meanwhile, my tournament skills did not improve at the same pace. Sure, I read the theory, but nothing beats constant practice for a 'feel' for the game.
So I approached yesterday's freeroll on Paradise (I have 2,500 Players' Club Points that I want to use up ASAP so that I can get away from the place forever) without much enthusiasm. About 400 runners, only five places paid. Then again, it was a $1,000 prize pool. Is it worth me turning up for these things with an EV of about $2.50? God knows.
Things actually went well for an hour or so. I picked up a big pair and eliminated another guy with a reraise of his standard raise, committing just over half his stack. He reraised all-in (which was the idea behind my raise) and I virtually doubled through (KK held up against AK with two cards to come. Amazing.)
Then I picked up AA in MP2, was trying to work out how much to raise, only for a player to go all-in in front of me (he had an M of about, ooooh, 20). It says something about how tournaments normally go for me to report that I think this is the first time this has happened to me in seven years. I reraised with my extra $300 (I can't be bothered with any fancy plays here) and my AA beat KQ. Amazing again.
In the second hour, another 80% shot held up to push me up to $9,500 from the original $1,500, and I found myself 18th out of the 90 players left.
Then I went card-dead and gradually the blinds increased. Bearing in mind the "start going all-in sooner rather than later" concept with which I started the tourney, I found myself with 97o on the button, a stack of $9,000, and blinds of 150-300 and 50 antes. I had SB and BB outstacked. It was passed round to me and I shoved it in.
Small blind thinks for a nano-second and calls with AJo. Oh well, I thought, I just need to get lucky,
No good, and I'm down to $3,000. So I'm just about shoving in at the first opportunity if no-one comes in in front of me. This situation arrived a couple of hands later and I put it all-in with my J5o. This time I get called on the button with .... J8s.
Maybe I played it wrong. I didn't really care that much. Life is too short and I was watching a movie at the same time, so I don't give these tourneys a lot of attention and I don't really care about going out (42nd of the 400, by the way). But I do seem to get zero rub of the green on the rare times that I foray into tournament land. I'm sure that other players tend to run well and, as a matter of course, come to expect to run well. I've never, absolutely never, had that kind of streak in tournaments.
One reason, of course, is that I no longer play them often enough for such a streak to appear.
I think that if I focused on MTTs, I would make money. The players seemed to make lots of mistakes, even in my half-attention mode. I tend to do better if I don't force things, but this time I decided to play a "force things" game. Not because it's more fun (for a player like me, this kind of bet is less fun, because it's aesthetically repulsive) but because I know that, with such a lop-sided payout, it's the most positive EV play. When it goes wrong, negative reinforcement rears its head, and it's tempting to draw back to the wrong "I'll just wait for a good hand" kind of play.
I still think that the 97o bet was right. Perhaps I should do some PokerStove to prove it to myself. But, then again, I don't really care if it was wrong. Tournaments just fail to engage me. Weird.
However, I reckon that the main reason for my preference for cash games is that, when I came back into poker (in a serious way) in 1999, I was unlucky in tournaments. When I started playing limit online on Paradise in 2000, I was lucky. So, short-term variance dictated long-term commitment.
And this becomes self-reinforcing. I became more practised at cash games, so I got better. Meanwhile, my tournament skills did not improve at the same pace. Sure, I read the theory, but nothing beats constant practice for a 'feel' for the game.
So I approached yesterday's freeroll on Paradise (I have 2,500 Players' Club Points that I want to use up ASAP so that I can get away from the place forever) without much enthusiasm. About 400 runners, only five places paid. Then again, it was a $1,000 prize pool. Is it worth me turning up for these things with an EV of about $2.50? God knows.
Things actually went well for an hour or so. I picked up a big pair and eliminated another guy with a reraise of his standard raise, committing just over half his stack. He reraised all-in (which was the idea behind my raise) and I virtually doubled through (KK held up against AK with two cards to come. Amazing.)
Then I picked up AA in MP2, was trying to work out how much to raise, only for a player to go all-in in front of me (he had an M of about, ooooh, 20). It says something about how tournaments normally go for me to report that I think this is the first time this has happened to me in seven years. I reraised with my extra $300 (I can't be bothered with any fancy plays here) and my AA beat KQ. Amazing again.
In the second hour, another 80% shot held up to push me up to $9,500 from the original $1,500, and I found myself 18th out of the 90 players left.
Then I went card-dead and gradually the blinds increased. Bearing in mind the "start going all-in sooner rather than later" concept with which I started the tourney, I found myself with 97o on the button, a stack of $9,000, and blinds of 150-300 and 50 antes. I had SB and BB outstacked. It was passed round to me and I shoved it in.
Small blind thinks for a nano-second and calls with AJo. Oh well, I thought, I just need to get lucky,
No good, and I'm down to $3,000. So I'm just about shoving in at the first opportunity if no-one comes in in front of me. This situation arrived a couple of hands later and I put it all-in with my J5o. This time I get called on the button with .... J8s.
Maybe I played it wrong. I didn't really care that much. Life is too short and I was watching a movie at the same time, so I don't give these tourneys a lot of attention and I don't really care about going out (42nd of the 400, by the way). But I do seem to get zero rub of the green on the rare times that I foray into tournament land. I'm sure that other players tend to run well and, as a matter of course, come to expect to run well. I've never, absolutely never, had that kind of streak in tournaments.
One reason, of course, is that I no longer play them often enough for such a streak to appear.
I think that if I focused on MTTs, I would make money. The players seemed to make lots of mistakes, even in my half-attention mode. I tend to do better if I don't force things, but this time I decided to play a "force things" game. Not because it's more fun (for a player like me, this kind of bet is less fun, because it's aesthetically repulsive) but because I know that, with such a lop-sided payout, it's the most positive EV play. When it goes wrong, negative reinforcement rears its head, and it's tempting to draw back to the wrong "I'll just wait for a good hand" kind of play.
I still think that the 97o bet was right. Perhaps I should do some PokerStove to prove it to myself. But, then again, I don't really care if it was wrong. Tournaments just fail to engage me. Weird.
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Date: 2007-03-19 09:31 am (UTC)According to officialpokerrankings.com I have an ROI of 133% ($1181 won, of which $675 was profit) in the last 120 days and 114% ($4611 & $2457) going back to Mar-05. This on Stars, where I play most of my tournaments. Apparently they think I'm in the top 9% (but not in the top 8%) for tournament play. I'd guess the ~100% ROI would be sustained if you added in my efforts at FTP, PokerRoom and the rest. My earn rate is OK*: my average buyin is slightly above the $20+2 level and my preferred event size means about 4 hours to collect the winner's dosh. Call it an average of 2.5 hours per tournament to account for the early busts. That's $8 an hour, $32 for four-tournamenting. Theoretically. Not counting variance. The problem is that I can't actually concentrate or usually allocate 4 hours. So I play SNGs and try to do better than break-even in the cash games.
Ho hum.
* Edited: I originally said "not great", then I did the sums.
no subject
Date: 2007-03-20 07:21 pm (UTC)matt
no subject
Date: 2007-03-20 07:55 pm (UTC)I just had a mantra "sooner rather than later" and my eye on the 10% return on investment ($950 in the pot). I don't really use the big blind as a multiple any more, just the size of the pot. I figured on an expected three steals and one "get lucky" to push me to about $21,000, even without a good hand. If I got a good hand, I would have to rethink about whether to shove or whether to make a standard raise.
PJ