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peterbirksA definite British kind of weather day today. Cloudy, breezy. If it weren't for the neon signs everywhere, I could easily have been in Brighton.
I struggle on through long card-dead periods, "getting out" twice through flopping sets from the blinds:
In fact the first of these (in the Bellagio) indicates the different qualities of play that you have to adapt to. I was unaware of it at the time, but half the table was waiting to play $8-$16.
I picked up 77 in the big blind and there was a virtual family pot (this was unusual). I was sorely tempted to raise here, for value, as I have seven opponents and I can just walk away if I fail to hit my set. However, I just checked.
The flop came A74 rainbow, giving me the middle set, and I now have a choice of bet or check. At this level my "bet" might not have the desired effect of "oh, he would never bet out with a set". As far as my opponents are concerned, I could be a donkey who just plays his hand. So I opted for level 2 check. UTG+1 bets and MP2 raises out of turn. Dealer points it out. MP1 quietly folds. It's passed round to me.
This puts me in a quandary. A cold call here sends out all the wrong messages if my opponent knows that I am competent (and he is competent). But a three-bet could take down the pot there and then, which I don't really want if opponent happens to be on Ax or even two-pair.
I decide to call. UTG+1 calls. This guy is loose-passive-weak. I don't see him as mucho f a threat.
Turn brings nothing of significance (a five). I check. UTG+1 checks. MP 2 also checks.
Bollocks.
River brings a deuce. I bet, UTG+1 folds and MP2 calls to show AQ off.
I think that my best play here is to cold-call the raise on the flop and then to bet out on the turn. That might get a call from UTG+1 as well as MP2, thus making me a couple of extra bets.
Now, the interesting thing here is that MP2 won the pot for me, and my failure to raise pre-flop turned out to be correct (in a results-oriented fashion). This was because the lady one-off the button, who folded on the flop, would have hit a gutshot on the turn and won the pot. If I raise pre-flop and continue, she is getting odds for her gutshot. If MP2 does not raise on the flop, she is also getting odds for her gutshot.
Then again, I'm not happy with the guy's limp with AQ off in this situation. I's a hand that I'd either raise with or walk away from, solely because a flop of Axx is frequently going to get you into trouble in a big multi-wayer. As it did here.
The second hand was in the Flamingo against considerably weaker opponents. It was raised by MP2 (a frequent raiser). Three players cold-called and I called in the small blind with 66. Big blind completed. The flop came KK5 rainbow and I'm not really thinking about the hand any more. I check and, to my shock, it's checked by the other five players.
Turn brings a six and I see nothing wrong with betting here. Opponents seem to be of the "Won't Bet, Won't Fold" variety. It's passed round to the button who raises me. I three-bet, he four-bets and I think for a nano-second before capping it. He calls and the river is a deuce. I bet and he calls, showing K9s. Go figure. His call pre-flop was wrong, his check on the flop was wrong, and his four-bet on the turn was wrong. Good going.
Where the Boardwalk used to be.
A view from the strip to the I-15. If you look at my picture from last September you can see how much building has taken place in six months. I fact, I'll reproduce it (with my old, poorer, camera).
The Orleans from the Strip, September 2006.
An early morning dip in the Bellagio pond. These guys pick up $3,000 a day in pennies. (Well, maybe they do.)
Old poker player in baseball cap. I do this guy an injustice. Rumour has it that the University of Las Vegas Nevada Library is naming a wing after this guy in gratitude for his donation of his book collection. Yes, really.
This guy sat down in the No Limit game. Likely to be a fish or a shark? Make up your own mind.
I struggle on through long card-dead periods, "getting out" twice through flopping sets from the blinds:
In fact the first of these (in the Bellagio) indicates the different qualities of play that you have to adapt to. I was unaware of it at the time, but half the table was waiting to play $8-$16.
I picked up 77 in the big blind and there was a virtual family pot (this was unusual). I was sorely tempted to raise here, for value, as I have seven opponents and I can just walk away if I fail to hit my set. However, I just checked.
The flop came A74 rainbow, giving me the middle set, and I now have a choice of bet or check. At this level my "bet" might not have the desired effect of "oh, he would never bet out with a set". As far as my opponents are concerned, I could be a donkey who just plays his hand. So I opted for level 2 check. UTG+1 bets and MP2 raises out of turn. Dealer points it out. MP1 quietly folds. It's passed round to me.
This puts me in a quandary. A cold call here sends out all the wrong messages if my opponent knows that I am competent (and he is competent). But a three-bet could take down the pot there and then, which I don't really want if opponent happens to be on Ax or even two-pair.
I decide to call. UTG+1 calls. This guy is loose-passive-weak. I don't see him as mucho f a threat.
Turn brings nothing of significance (a five). I check. UTG+1 checks. MP 2 also checks.
Bollocks.
River brings a deuce. I bet, UTG+1 folds and MP2 calls to show AQ off.
I think that my best play here is to cold-call the raise on the flop and then to bet out on the turn. That might get a call from UTG+1 as well as MP2, thus making me a couple of extra bets.
Now, the interesting thing here is that MP2 won the pot for me, and my failure to raise pre-flop turned out to be correct (in a results-oriented fashion). This was because the lady one-off the button, who folded on the flop, would have hit a gutshot on the turn and won the pot. If I raise pre-flop and continue, she is getting odds for her gutshot. If MP2 does not raise on the flop, she is also getting odds for her gutshot.
Then again, I'm not happy with the guy's limp with AQ off in this situation. I's a hand that I'd either raise with or walk away from, solely because a flop of Axx is frequently going to get you into trouble in a big multi-wayer. As it did here.
The second hand was in the Flamingo against considerably weaker opponents. It was raised by MP2 (a frequent raiser). Three players cold-called and I called in the small blind with 66. Big blind completed. The flop came KK5 rainbow and I'm not really thinking about the hand any more. I check and, to my shock, it's checked by the other five players.
Turn brings a six and I see nothing wrong with betting here. Opponents seem to be of the "Won't Bet, Won't Fold" variety. It's passed round to the button who raises me. I three-bet, he four-bets and I think for a nano-second before capping it. He calls and the river is a deuce. I bet and he calls, showing K9s. Go figure. His call pre-flop was wrong, his check on the flop was wrong, and his four-bet on the turn was wrong. Good going.
Where the Boardwalk used to be.
A view from the strip to the I-15. If you look at my picture from last September you can see how much building has taken place in six months. I fact, I'll reproduce it (with my old, poorer, camera).
The Orleans from the Strip, September 2006.
An early morning dip in the Bellagio pond. These guys pick up $3,000 a day in pennies. (Well, maybe they do.)
Old poker player in baseball cap. I do this guy an injustice. Rumour has it that the University of Las Vegas Nevada Library is naming a wing after this guy in gratitude for his donation of his book collection. Yes, really.
This guy sat down in the No Limit game. Likely to be a fish or a shark? Make up your own mind.
no subject
Date: 2007-03-28 09:12 am (UTC)Noone in the history of live poker has ever folded for one more bet on the flop when they've raised. With an ace or two pair he may well reraise you. You seem to have 101 reasons for not betting/raising for every single scenario. Flop a set? Check. Get raised? Just call. Just in the spirit of experimentation try making your default behaviour raising if you decide (using your normal criteria) to play the hand?
matt
no subject
Date: 2007-03-28 03:20 pm (UTC)I definitely have a very pessimistic attitude to the game at the moment, and it's something I would like to get rid of. I suspect it's reflective of my attitude to life.
A three-bet (the ABC play, as it were) probably has a higher EV if you incorporate the idiocy factor. But Matt, the EV isn't as great as you state.
These days I have been three-betting more in this situation (online) because players will just call you down to the end. I haven't found that it has increased my rate of return at all. I've had folds (raise on flop was outright steal-attempt), folds on the turn, all sorts.
I'm looking to check-raise the turn and get called on the river. That would increase my EV by one small bet. If UTG would fold to a three-bet, but call a single raise, and then chase the turn, then my EV would increase by 2.5 big bets. On the downside, I'm risking an increased chance of a suckout.
Once again, Matt, you take single hands as representative of my entire style. That's unfair. The problem is, a large percentage of the ABC hands (where I three-bet the flop) don't make interesting hands to comment upon.
Pete
no subject
Date: 2007-03-28 03:41 pm (UTC)Pete
no subject
Date: 2007-03-28 06:06 pm (UTC)You'll only flop a set about one hand dealt in 200 (assuming you see a flop approx 2/3 of the time with a pair) so excessive timidity in this situation wouldnt necessarily show up in your stats. Every single Holdem authority I've ever read has stressed the importance of playing sets as fast as possible and yet you're not re-raising the flop and allowing the turn to be checked round. Maybe you're right and they're all wrong but you should at least consider the alternative. Besides you're in Vegas .... time to gamboooool!
matt