A Life On The Gulf of Tonkin waves
Apr. 26th, 2007 04:31 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksThis will be my last post for a couple of days. Although the entire universe is meant to be within wireless internet access these days, I can't help but suspect that a junk on the Gulf of Tonkin is not one of them. It will be weird to be somewhere that, theoretically, is completely out of touch. Although I'm charging up both the mobile phones, just in case.
I wrote three stories today and conducted one interview, as well as attending two seminars. So I felt somewhat righteous. I could have wandered out for a stroll, but I didn't feel like saying "No Thank You" in a polite way again and again to the myriad transport offerers; and it would have been rude to go into a Birks impolite mode. As well as, perhaps, not a little risky.
So, to cut a long story short, I pissed around on Ultimate Bet for an hour. I know that Matt gets withdrawal symptoms if he can't tell me at least once a week how I've fucked up at the poker table, so I'll give him the pleasure of two hands where I didn't really know what I was doing.
Well, in the first case, I was confident that I was wrong the second that I did what I did. But my question is, would it have been the right thing to do if the board had not paired on the flop?
In the other two, well, the results were okay, but that's being results-oriented. Were my bet levels correct? Or even in the right zone?
NL: $50 max buy-in.
DevilsAce is at seat 1 with $62.95.
Birks is at seat 3 with $41.
Flanagan is at seat 5 with $24.20.
stomias is at seat 6 with $46.75.
LnlYpRisNWalL is at seat 7 with $8.80.
Karthgrid is at seat 8 with $31.65.
mcp2959 is at seat 9 with $22.65.
The button is at seat 3.
Flanagan posts the small blind of $.25.
stomias posts the big blind of $.50.
Birks (Button): Js 9s
Pre-flop:
LnlYpRisNWalL folds. Karthgrid folds. mcp2959
folds. DevilsAce raises to $1.75. Dolchstoss calls.
Flanagan folds. stomias folds.
Should I fold here? I was on the button and I was in the mood for seeing flops. My opponent saw 45% of flops, but did not raise often, so I suspected a big pair. Unfortunately, I didn't follow this through to its logical conclusion. Instead, I fell in love with my hand.
Flop (board: 8s Ts 8c):
DevilsAce bets $4.25. Birks raises to $13.
DevilsAce goes all-in for $61.20. Birks goes
all-in for $39.25. DevilsAce is returned $21.95
Should I just fold to his pot sized bet? Or should I call. I think that a flat call is the right play or, alternatively, punt it all-in. However, given the stack sizes, I prefer the flat call. I don't know what I was thinking about with this raise. Put it down to inexperience and lack of time to think.
When he reraised me I didn't even look at how much I had left in front of me. In fact my raise leaves me with $23 or thereabouts. I'd decided that, with a four-card straight flush open-ended, I was marginal favourite if I got my money all-in on the flop. However, this ceases to be the case if opponent has a big pair and the board is paired (as it is here). However, I'm getting nice value (given my stack size and his) with a flat call. However, I only figured this out with hindsight, and the entire hand still has me somewhat flummoxed.
Turn (board: 8s Ts 8c 8d):
(no action in this round)
River (board: 8s Ts 8c 8d 2c):
(no action in this round)
Showdown:
DevilsAce shows Kc Kd.
DevilsAce has Kc Kd 8s 8c 8d: full house, eights full of kings.
Birks shows Js 9s.
Birks has Js 8s Ts 8c 8d: three eights.
REBUY!
++++++
I played for another 10 minutes or so, picking up some bits and pieces and, I felt, playing okay (well, at least not going on tilt because of my previous fuck-up), when this hand appeared.
amsfan is at seat 0 with $23.
Birks is at seat 3 with $56.50.
elsapo924 is at seat 4 with $50.
Flanagan is at seat 5 with $18.35.
stomias is at seat 6 with $50.75.
go low 69 is at seat 7 with $19.
Karthgrid is at seat 8 with $47.80.
mcp2959 is at seat 9 with $26.60.
The button is at seat 0.
Birks posts the small blind of $.25.
elsapo924 posts the big blind of $.50.
Birks: Ad Ah
Pre-flop:
Flanagan folds. stomias folds. go low 69 folds.
Karthgrid raises to $3. mcp2959 folds. ramsfan
folds. Birks re-raises to $5.50. elsapo924
folds. Karthgrid calls.
I thought for about 10 seconds before reraising to $5.50. In fact, I was somewhat frozen by indecision. I wanted it to be heads up and I didn't want to tip my hand.
Flop (board: 2h 5d 3d):
Birks bets $9. Karthgrid calls.
About 80% of the size of the pot. Opponent has been seeing 45% of flops, and has been raising 17% of the time, but we were short-handed for much of this time. I don't really have a read on him, but raises seemed to indicate decent pairs. Opponents seemed to be of the "let's see how the flop develops if possible" type unless they had big pairs.
However, I'm still a bit lost about how things should be progressing. I'm playing to take the guy's money if he has queens or kings. If that's the case, this bet might be a bit too big. But, well, that's with the time to analyze it. At the table, I was just hitting and hoping that my bet sizes were roughly right.
Turn (board: 2h 5d 3d 8h):
Birks bets $16. Karthgrid goes all-in for
$33.30. Birks calls.
On that board, I'm putting all my money in if I can, and a good trick in tournaments is to bet a fraction less than half your opponent's stack. So, that's what I tried. Presumably my opponent saw a $16 bet into a $29 pot as a sign of weakness. Or, he thought "what the fuck, let's get it in now".
River (board: 2h 5d 3d 8h Ks):
(no action in this round)
I can't say that I was delighted to see that king.
Showdown:
Karthgrid shows Qc Qd.
Karthgrid has Qc Qd 5d 8h Ks: a pair of queens.
Birks shows Ad Ah.
Birks has Ad Ah 5d 8h Ks: a pair of aces.
Woohoo. Back to level, and now well caked-up at the table.
+++++++++++
I was coming up to 100 hands and getting ready to stand up when, blow me, I got Aces again. This is how it went down.
ramsfan is at seat 0 with $21.30.
DODGELUVR is at seat 1 with $28.50.
IMBLUFFING is at seat 2 with $26.30.
Birks is at seat 3 with $103.85.
elsapo924 is at seat 4 with $42.55.
Flanagan is at seat 5 with $25.60.
go low 69 is at seat 7 with $29.30.
henri177 is at seat 8 with $50.
mcp2959 is at seat 9 with $30.65.
The button is at seat 4.
Flanagan posts the small blind of $.25.
go low 69 posts the big blind of $.50.
Birks: As Ad
Pre-flop:
mcp2959 calls. ramsfan calls. DODGELUVR folds.
IMBLUFFING folds. Dolchstoss raises to $2.75.
elsapo924 folds. Flanagan folds. go low 69 folds.
mcp2959 calls. ramsfan calls.
With two limpers, both with about $30, is this about the right raise, or should I push it a bit harder? BTW, one area where I disagree with the "herd" is wen they say that you should always raise the same amount pre-flop, because to do otherwise is to give away your hand. For various reasons, I think that this line of argument is deeply flawed.
Flop (board: 4s Ac 3h):
Woohoo. Unless either of my opponents is a Gutshotter, I doubt that I am facing 5-2.
So, we are now into maximum extraction mode. What's the best way to do this?
mcp2959 checks. ramsfan checks. Birks bets $5.
mcp2959 raises to $10. ramsfan folds. Birks
re-raises to $32. mcp2959 goes all-in for $27.90.
I thought that I had bet too much when I put the money in (I thought about it for a good few seconds. The staking bit still confuses me on how much I am actually betting compared with what I have already put in and how much my opponent has already put in. I think that I'm putting in another $27 here and opponent is calling for his last $17. UB details the hand oddly.). But, whatever, opponent called.
Birks is returned $4.10 (uncalled).
Turn (board: 4s Ac 3h 8h):
(no action in this round)
River (board: 4s Ac 3h 8h Kh):
(no action in this round)
Showdown:
Birks shows As Ad.
Birks has As Ad Ac 8h Kh: three aces.
mcp2959 shows Ts Ah.
mcp2959 has Ts Ah Ac 8h Kh: a pair of aces.
Hand #41813800-1246 Summary:
$3 is raked from a pot of $64.80.
Birks wins $61.80 with three aces.
----------------------------------------------------------------
I think that I played this hand okay, in that the result was right and I was happy with my betting levels. But, well, as the Youngser says, sometimes there is less to this game than I think. What on earth is going through opponent's brain to call in this situation with a pair of Aces and a Ten kicker? I'd assumed either two-pair or (possibly) a pair of aces with a gutshot and some kind of backdoor flush draw.
+++++++++++++++
I wrote three stories today and conducted one interview, as well as attending two seminars. So I felt somewhat righteous. I could have wandered out for a stroll, but I didn't feel like saying "No Thank You" in a polite way again and again to the myriad transport offerers; and it would have been rude to go into a Birks impolite mode. As well as, perhaps, not a little risky.
So, to cut a long story short, I pissed around on Ultimate Bet for an hour. I know that Matt gets withdrawal symptoms if he can't tell me at least once a week how I've fucked up at the poker table, so I'll give him the pleasure of two hands where I didn't really know what I was doing.
Well, in the first case, I was confident that I was wrong the second that I did what I did. But my question is, would it have been the right thing to do if the board had not paired on the flop?
In the other two, well, the results were okay, but that's being results-oriented. Were my bet levels correct? Or even in the right zone?
NL: $50 max buy-in.
DevilsAce is at seat 1 with $62.95.
Birks is at seat 3 with $41.
Flanagan is at seat 5 with $24.20.
stomias is at seat 6 with $46.75.
LnlYpRisNWalL is at seat 7 with $8.80.
Karthgrid is at seat 8 with $31.65.
mcp2959 is at seat 9 with $22.65.
The button is at seat 3.
Flanagan posts the small blind of $.25.
stomias posts the big blind of $.50.
Birks (Button): Js 9s
Pre-flop:
LnlYpRisNWalL folds. Karthgrid folds. mcp2959
folds. DevilsAce raises to $1.75. Dolchstoss calls.
Flanagan folds. stomias folds.
Should I fold here? I was on the button and I was in the mood for seeing flops. My opponent saw 45% of flops, but did not raise often, so I suspected a big pair. Unfortunately, I didn't follow this through to its logical conclusion. Instead, I fell in love with my hand.
Flop (board: 8s Ts 8c):
DevilsAce bets $4.25. Birks raises to $13.
DevilsAce goes all-in for $61.20. Birks goes
all-in for $39.25. DevilsAce is returned $21.95
Should I just fold to his pot sized bet? Or should I call. I think that a flat call is the right play or, alternatively, punt it all-in. However, given the stack sizes, I prefer the flat call. I don't know what I was thinking about with this raise. Put it down to inexperience and lack of time to think.
When he reraised me I didn't even look at how much I had left in front of me. In fact my raise leaves me with $23 or thereabouts. I'd decided that, with a four-card straight flush open-ended, I was marginal favourite if I got my money all-in on the flop. However, this ceases to be the case if opponent has a big pair and the board is paired (as it is here). However, I'm getting nice value (given my stack size and his) with a flat call. However, I only figured this out with hindsight, and the entire hand still has me somewhat flummoxed.
Turn (board: 8s Ts 8c 8d):
(no action in this round)
River (board: 8s Ts 8c 8d 2c):
(no action in this round)
Showdown:
DevilsAce shows Kc Kd.
DevilsAce has Kc Kd 8s 8c 8d: full house, eights full of kings.
Birks shows Js 9s.
Birks has Js 8s Ts 8c 8d: three eights.
REBUY!
++++++
I played for another 10 minutes or so, picking up some bits and pieces and, I felt, playing okay (well, at least not going on tilt because of my previous fuck-up), when this hand appeared.
amsfan is at seat 0 with $23.
Birks is at seat 3 with $56.50.
elsapo924 is at seat 4 with $50.
Flanagan is at seat 5 with $18.35.
stomias is at seat 6 with $50.75.
go low 69 is at seat 7 with $19.
Karthgrid is at seat 8 with $47.80.
mcp2959 is at seat 9 with $26.60.
The button is at seat 0.
Birks posts the small blind of $.25.
elsapo924 posts the big blind of $.50.
Birks: Ad Ah
Pre-flop:
Flanagan folds. stomias folds. go low 69 folds.
Karthgrid raises to $3. mcp2959 folds. ramsfan
folds. Birks re-raises to $5.50. elsapo924
folds. Karthgrid calls.
I thought for about 10 seconds before reraising to $5.50. In fact, I was somewhat frozen by indecision. I wanted it to be heads up and I didn't want to tip my hand.
Flop (board: 2h 5d 3d):
Birks bets $9. Karthgrid calls.
About 80% of the size of the pot. Opponent has been seeing 45% of flops, and has been raising 17% of the time, but we were short-handed for much of this time. I don't really have a read on him, but raises seemed to indicate decent pairs. Opponents seemed to be of the "let's see how the flop develops if possible" type unless they had big pairs.
However, I'm still a bit lost about how things should be progressing. I'm playing to take the guy's money if he has queens or kings. If that's the case, this bet might be a bit too big. But, well, that's with the time to analyze it. At the table, I was just hitting and hoping that my bet sizes were roughly right.
Turn (board: 2h 5d 3d 8h):
Birks bets $16. Karthgrid goes all-in for
$33.30. Birks calls.
On that board, I'm putting all my money in if I can, and a good trick in tournaments is to bet a fraction less than half your opponent's stack. So, that's what I tried. Presumably my opponent saw a $16 bet into a $29 pot as a sign of weakness. Or, he thought "what the fuck, let's get it in now".
River (board: 2h 5d 3d 8h Ks):
(no action in this round)
I can't say that I was delighted to see that king.
Showdown:
Karthgrid shows Qc Qd.
Karthgrid has Qc Qd 5d 8h Ks: a pair of queens.
Birks shows Ad Ah.
Birks has Ad Ah 5d 8h Ks: a pair of aces.
Woohoo. Back to level, and now well caked-up at the table.
+++++++++++
I was coming up to 100 hands and getting ready to stand up when, blow me, I got Aces again. This is how it went down.
ramsfan is at seat 0 with $21.30.
DODGELUVR is at seat 1 with $28.50.
IMBLUFFING is at seat 2 with $26.30.
Birks is at seat 3 with $103.85.
elsapo924 is at seat 4 with $42.55.
Flanagan is at seat 5 with $25.60.
go low 69 is at seat 7 with $29.30.
henri177 is at seat 8 with $50.
mcp2959 is at seat 9 with $30.65.
The button is at seat 4.
Flanagan posts the small blind of $.25.
go low 69 posts the big blind of $.50.
Birks: As Ad
Pre-flop:
mcp2959 calls. ramsfan calls. DODGELUVR folds.
IMBLUFFING folds. Dolchstoss raises to $2.75.
elsapo924 folds. Flanagan folds. go low 69 folds.
mcp2959 calls. ramsfan calls.
With two limpers, both with about $30, is this about the right raise, or should I push it a bit harder? BTW, one area where I disagree with the "herd" is wen they say that you should always raise the same amount pre-flop, because to do otherwise is to give away your hand. For various reasons, I think that this line of argument is deeply flawed.
Flop (board: 4s Ac 3h):
Woohoo. Unless either of my opponents is a Gutshotter, I doubt that I am facing 5-2.
So, we are now into maximum extraction mode. What's the best way to do this?
mcp2959 checks. ramsfan checks. Birks bets $5.
mcp2959 raises to $10. ramsfan folds. Birks
re-raises to $32. mcp2959 goes all-in for $27.90.
I thought that I had bet too much when I put the money in (I thought about it for a good few seconds. The staking bit still confuses me on how much I am actually betting compared with what I have already put in and how much my opponent has already put in. I think that I'm putting in another $27 here and opponent is calling for his last $17. UB details the hand oddly.). But, whatever, opponent called.
Birks is returned $4.10 (uncalled).
Turn (board: 4s Ac 3h 8h):
(no action in this round)
River (board: 4s Ac 3h 8h Kh):
(no action in this round)
Showdown:
Birks shows As Ad.
Birks has As Ad Ac 8h Kh: three aces.
mcp2959 shows Ts Ah.
mcp2959 has Ts Ah Ac 8h Kh: a pair of aces.
Hand #41813800-1246 Summary:
$3 is raked from a pot of $64.80.
Birks wins $61.80 with three aces.
----------------------------------------------------------------
I think that I played this hand okay, in that the result was right and I was happy with my betting levels. But, well, as the Youngser says, sometimes there is less to this game than I think. What on earth is going through opponent's brain to call in this situation with a pair of Aces and a Ten kicker? I'd assumed either two-pair or (possibly) a pair of aces with a gutshot and some kind of backdoor flush draw.
+++++++++++++++
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
no subject
Date: 2007-04-26 06:45 pm (UTC)So playing the way you did is fine, although I would have raised more aggressively if the board hadnt been paired for sure. The only question is whether calling is better. Well, in general, no it isnt. If they're folding some of the time, and you have ~50% pot equity when they dont then that's a big edge. The only exception would be if you knew for sure that they'd happily go all the way with an overpair (even on a paired board) as your opponent did. In this case you have no fold equity so the question is whether calling the flop and getting away if the turn is unpleasant is better than your 50% equity. Well then it might be ... if they make a cheap flop bet it probably is ... but you didnt know the opponent would be allin with just a pair.
So to summarise: when you dont have fold equity and your OESFD isnt quite perfect (eg board paired, idiot end) and they bet cheap on the flop you might just want to call and fold blank turns. However for all normal OESFD's then put in a huge raise on the flop to force them to fold or be allin. [You might want to show these 'bluffs' when they fold then play flopped sets the identical way.]
matt
no subject
Date: 2007-04-26 11:21 pm (UTC)Yes, that makes sense, and I wish I could say that was going through my head at the time. In fact, what went through my head at the time was:
"I'm going to raise. Fuck. How does this slider work? How much is in the pot? How much does he have left? How much do I have left? What's that buzzing noise? Christ, I'm running out of time. Hmm $13. Does that mean my total bet is $13 and I raise him $9, or that I raise im $13? Darned if I know. Hell, nearly out of time. Click "Bet it" button."
In other words bet as much as it will take to make them fold if theyre going to fold.
This creates aninteresting mathematical situation. Take x as the probability that a default opponent will fold to a bet of size y with a pot of size z (and a stack size k) and then plot this for all levels of bet y and see how the curve is shaped. Clearly it would be flatter at the top end (if he's calling for 80% of his stack on the flop, then he's calling for 90%), but is it an 'S' shaped curve? Or is it more of a steep rise at the beginning, then flattening out at the end? I suspect the latter.
OK, I'm off to Ha Long Bay. Back Saturday night (my time).
PJ
no subject
Date: 2012-11-10 11:34 pm (UTC)