Money matters
Jul. 14th, 2007 12:25 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksThings get more and more concerning at Neteller. Gord Herman quit yesterday. The company continues to delay releasing its figures for 2006, and its shares remain suspended. Not really the kind of company that you want to leave several thousand dollars sitting in, I would say, even if the company continues to function and current transactions appear to be going through okay.
Since Neteller assures us that customers' deposits are kept separately, withdrawals only impact the company in the sense that it loses interest. And, to be honest, I'm fairly confident that the finances aren't too bad. But resignations of high-powered executives for unspecified reasons are enough to make me cautious and I'm going to reduce my exposure in case things do go belly-up.
Party and Ultimate seem willing to send me dollar cheques (although the one from UB hasn't arrived yet, and I only put in the Party withdrawal order this morning). This means that I should be able to get money into my Schwab account through the route of Main site to Neteller, Neteller to Party/Ultimate, Play enough hands at Party/Ultimate to merit a withdrawal, Order cheque withdrawal, Wait, Get cheque, deposit in Citibank, wait for cheque to clear, transfer to Schwab.
This compares with the old route of, er, Main site to Neteller, Neteller to Schwab.
As back-up, it looks as if I've got my UK bank account linked to Neteller as well, provided I am willing to take the disgraceful exchange rate hit.
I wrote before that there's no need for clever plays and no real need to stack people off in the games that I play. It's possible to win money simply by waiting for people to give it to you. If they give you small amounts quite frequently, that can add up to more than the once-a-session stack-off against the made gambler types. Here's a typical example.
GAME #600003061: Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1.00
Seat 1: Jackal24 ($135.00 in chips)
Seat 2: niker19 ($39.40 in chips)
Seat 3: boratz ($107.20 in chips)
Seat 4: Learnfromthebest ($97.65 in chips)
Seat 5: pahia24 ($119.85 in chips) DEALER
Seat 6: Fish ($81.75 in chips) (SB)
Seat 8: hero ($98.10 in chips) (BB)
Seat 9: arzinhooo ($93.50 in chips)
Seat 10: CaptainSkill ($26.90 in chips)
Fish: Post SB $0.50
Hero: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [2◊ 9◊]
arzinhooo: Call $1.00
CaptainSkill: Fold
Jackal24: Fold
niker19: Fold
boratz: Call $1.00
Learnfromthebest: Fold
pahia24: Fold
Fish: Call $0.50
Hero: Check
OK, so the table as a whole has already made an error by giving me a free ride. I've written many times that I am loath to limp if it means giving the big blind a free card. The theory in favour of it is that you might limp and then get BB to lose more than he would have if you raised pre-flop. Effectively this implies that you are "slow-playing" your hand against a random hand. Since the rank of hands is much closer pre-flop than post-flop, this is a blatant example of slow-playing when your hand is not strong enough. Unfortunately, there are times when a limp is better than a raise for other reasons - one being that you don't want the pot to get too large pre-flop and the other being that you don't want to let early players limp-reraise you. But in these cases I'd rather throw away my hand. Raise or fold! However, I'm always grateful for a free ride in the BB
*** FLOP *** [5♣ K♡ 9♣]
Fish: Check
Hero: Check
I'm not usually betting out in this situation. There are exceptions, but this isn't one of them. I'm also folding if one of the other players bets
arzinhooo: Check
boratz: Check
Many thanks guys.
*** TURN *** [5♡]
Fish: Bet $2.50
So, not only do all these nice guys let me in for free for two rounds, but then one of the players makes a bet, the size of which screams "attempted steal". If he had bet the size of the pot, I would probably fold. If he checks, I'm betting the pot myself (maybe a buck less than the pot). But the bet of 40% of the pot? Oh please. Why don't you hold up a sign?
Hero: Raise to $6.00
Arzinhooo: Fold
boratz: Fold
Fish: Fold
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $12.05 Rake $0.45
Hero: wins $12.05
Many players would consider these hands appetisers rather than main courses, but you only need one of them an hour and to break even elsewhere, and, well, you are doing fine. No-one made a massive stack-off mistake. None of my opponents walked away from this hand thinking: "hell, I fucked up there". But it's these errors, rather than the mistakes in the big hands, that turn 90% of these players into losers. The guys who blast off all their chips with TPTK (or worse) go broke too quickly. Players who make these kind of errors last much longer.
++++++++++++
How I Lose My Money
I had an odd day on Thursday. I kept getting drawing hands. Some worked, some failed, and I ended up a long session with a swing of about $3.
Here's one:
GAME #598794803: Texas Hold'em NL $0.25/$0.50
Seat 1: t3nn1splaya ($19.75 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero ($36.65 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: pokervince ($8.75 in chips)
Seat 4: Kurt444 ($8.25 in chips)
Seat 5: KRFlush222 ($65.15 in chips)
Seat 6: AliAlis ($81.40 in chips)
Seat 8: luckyducky3 ($12.48 in chips)
Seat 9: spibs ($40.85 in chips)
Seat 10: DerFisch ($30.30 in chips)
pokervince: Post SB $0.25
Kurt444: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to luckyducky3 [K◊ 8◊]
Dealt to Hero [A♣ 6♣]
KRFlush222: Fold
AliAlis: Fold
luckyducky3: Call $0.50
spibs: Call $0.50
DerFisch: Fold
t3nn1splaya: Fold
Hero: Raise $3.00
this is in tune with my raising style. If they are watching my range (which I doubt) I could have anything from Kxs through suited connectors through Axs, Ace-paint, any pair, AK-AQo. This range might widen even further against notable limp-folders and tight players in the blinds.
pokervince: Fold
Kurt444: Fold
luckyducky3: Call $2.50
spibs: Call $2.50
two callers is unusual here. Note that luckyducky3 is short-stacked.
*** FLOP *** [8♣ 9♣ K♡]
luckyducky3: Check
spibs: Check
Hero: Bet $7.00
I see no reason for not continuing here. If I get two callers and I miss on the turn, I'll check to get the free river.
luckyducky3: Allin $9.48
spibs: Fold
Hero: Call $2.48
mandatory. obviously
*** TURN *** [3♠]
*** RIVER *** [5♠]
I miss.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $27.31 Rake $1.40
luckyducky3: wins $27.31 with two pair, kings and eights.
+++++++++++
I only really mention that hand because this hand came up almost immediately on another table.
Texas Hold'em NL $0.25/$0.50
Seat 1: PikkuPoju ($18.90 in chips)
Seat 3: MeOnTilt ($77.60 in chips) DEALER
Seat 4: 2nik2007 ($38.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Hero ($44.00 in chips)
Seat 6: chameau79 ($29.30 in chips)
Seat 7: heyheypoker ($22.90 in chips)
Seat 8: Jenistotle1 ($53.60 in chips)
Seat 9: spibs ($38.75 in chips)
Seat 10: dsceurochamps5 ($19.00 in chips)
2nik2007: Post SB $0.25
Hero: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [10♡ K♡]
Dealt to MeOnTilt [A♠ Q♡]
Dealt to PikkuPoju [K◊ A◊]
chameau79: Fold
heyheypoker: Raise $2.00
Jenistotle1: Fold
spibs: Fold
dsceurochamps5: Fold
PikkuPoju: Call $2.00
MeOnTilt: Call $2.00
2nik2007: Fold
Hero: Call $1.50
"The Tunstall" (KT) is probably my least favourite hand, but suited and with three players against me and no chance of a reraise, I figured that I'd see three cards for a buck-fifty.
*** FLOP *** [A♡ 9♣ 3♡]
In a multi-wayer, I've seen worse flops. Now I'm drawing to the nuts.
Hero: Check
heyheypoker: Bet $5.00
PikkuPoju: Allin $16.90
MeOnTilt: Allin $75.60
Oh. I thought about this for a long time (like, three seconds.... which is forever, man) and then decided that the second all-in had reraised so early because his hand was vulnerable (say, AK...). If I'm only facing one all-in, I'm not really getting the odds here, but in this situation (much though I hate multi-wayers) and against the various ranges of opponents (and I still have the original bettor behind me!) I reckon that a call is just about +EV.
Hero: Allin $42.00
heyheypoker: Fold
*** TURN *** [4♠]
*** RIVER *** [J◊]
I miss.
Well, as it turns out, I'm putting in $42 to win $144, so I'm getting the pot odds as the cards lie. If it's set-over-set or similar, I'm also just about okay (well, if it's negative EV, it isn't by much). I'm probably only on the wrong side of the deal if larger stack has a set and smaller stack isn't taking away any of larger stack's outs.
I know I shouldn't have been "pleased" about this hand, but I was, in a way, because I had the courage to put in my entire stack when the odds were right (even though I was odds against).
Now, whether I was right to come in in the first place.....
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $144.75 Rake $3.00
PikkuPoju: wins $60.95
MeOnTilt: wins $83.80
++++++++++
I'm continuing $50 during the week and $100 at weekends at the moment, but I may try one or two $200 tables (rather than the three or four $100 tables which I'm playing at the moment) to see how comfortable I feel against the opposition. I've spotted a couple of plays at the $100 table that you don't see at the $50 (the check-mini-raise from a defended blind against a continuation bet on a raggy flop such as Qxx rainbow is a particular favourite) but nothing that seems in the least bit "difficult". I would imagine that there would be much more in the good player's armoury at $200 buy-in, but at least that would keep things intellectually challenging.
Since Neteller assures us that customers' deposits are kept separately, withdrawals only impact the company in the sense that it loses interest. And, to be honest, I'm fairly confident that the finances aren't too bad. But resignations of high-powered executives for unspecified reasons are enough to make me cautious and I'm going to reduce my exposure in case things do go belly-up.
Party and Ultimate seem willing to send me dollar cheques (although the one from UB hasn't arrived yet, and I only put in the Party withdrawal order this morning). This means that I should be able to get money into my Schwab account through the route of Main site to Neteller, Neteller to Party/Ultimate, Play enough hands at Party/Ultimate to merit a withdrawal, Order cheque withdrawal, Wait, Get cheque, deposit in Citibank, wait for cheque to clear, transfer to Schwab.
This compares with the old route of, er, Main site to Neteller, Neteller to Schwab.
As back-up, it looks as if I've got my UK bank account linked to Neteller as well, provided I am willing to take the disgraceful exchange rate hit.
- How I Make My Money
I wrote before that there's no need for clever plays and no real need to stack people off in the games that I play. It's possible to win money simply by waiting for people to give it to you. If they give you small amounts quite frequently, that can add up to more than the once-a-session stack-off against the made gambler types. Here's a typical example.
GAME #600003061: Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1.00
Seat 1: Jackal24 ($135.00 in chips)
Seat 2: niker19 ($39.40 in chips)
Seat 3: boratz ($107.20 in chips)
Seat 4: Learnfromthebest ($97.65 in chips)
Seat 5: pahia24 ($119.85 in chips) DEALER
Seat 6: Fish ($81.75 in chips) (SB)
Seat 8: hero ($98.10 in chips) (BB)
Seat 9: arzinhooo ($93.50 in chips)
Seat 10: CaptainSkill ($26.90 in chips)
Fish: Post SB $0.50
Hero: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [2◊ 9◊]
arzinhooo: Call $1.00
CaptainSkill: Fold
Jackal24: Fold
niker19: Fold
boratz: Call $1.00
Learnfromthebest: Fold
pahia24: Fold
Fish: Call $0.50
Hero: Check
OK, so the table as a whole has already made an error by giving me a free ride. I've written many times that I am loath to limp if it means giving the big blind a free card. The theory in favour of it is that you might limp and then get BB to lose more than he would have if you raised pre-flop. Effectively this implies that you are "slow-playing" your hand against a random hand. Since the rank of hands is much closer pre-flop than post-flop, this is a blatant example of slow-playing when your hand is not strong enough. Unfortunately, there are times when a limp is better than a raise for other reasons - one being that you don't want the pot to get too large pre-flop and the other being that you don't want to let early players limp-reraise you. But in these cases I'd rather throw away my hand. Raise or fold! However, I'm always grateful for a free ride in the BB
*** FLOP *** [5♣ K♡ 9♣]
Fish: Check
Hero: Check
I'm not usually betting out in this situation. There are exceptions, but this isn't one of them. I'm also folding if one of the other players bets
arzinhooo: Check
boratz: Check
Many thanks guys.
*** TURN *** [5♡]
Fish: Bet $2.50
So, not only do all these nice guys let me in for free for two rounds, but then one of the players makes a bet, the size of which screams "attempted steal". If he had bet the size of the pot, I would probably fold. If he checks, I'm betting the pot myself (maybe a buck less than the pot). But the bet of 40% of the pot? Oh please. Why don't you hold up a sign?
Hero: Raise to $6.00
Arzinhooo: Fold
boratz: Fold
Fish: Fold
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $12.05 Rake $0.45
Hero: wins $12.05
Many players would consider these hands appetisers rather than main courses, but you only need one of them an hour and to break even elsewhere, and, well, you are doing fine. No-one made a massive stack-off mistake. None of my opponents walked away from this hand thinking: "hell, I fucked up there". But it's these errors, rather than the mistakes in the big hands, that turn 90% of these players into losers. The guys who blast off all their chips with TPTK (or worse) go broke too quickly. Players who make these kind of errors last much longer.
++++++++++++
How I Lose My Money
I had an odd day on Thursday. I kept getting drawing hands. Some worked, some failed, and I ended up a long session with a swing of about $3.
Here's one:
GAME #598794803: Texas Hold'em NL $0.25/$0.50
Seat 1: t3nn1splaya ($19.75 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero ($36.65 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: pokervince ($8.75 in chips)
Seat 4: Kurt444 ($8.25 in chips)
Seat 5: KRFlush222 ($65.15 in chips)
Seat 6: AliAlis ($81.40 in chips)
Seat 8: luckyducky3 ($12.48 in chips)
Seat 9: spibs ($40.85 in chips)
Seat 10: DerFisch ($30.30 in chips)
pokervince: Post SB $0.25
Kurt444: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to luckyducky3 [K◊ 8◊]
Dealt to Hero [A♣ 6♣]
KRFlush222: Fold
AliAlis: Fold
luckyducky3: Call $0.50
spibs: Call $0.50
DerFisch: Fold
t3nn1splaya: Fold
Hero: Raise $3.00
this is in tune with my raising style. If they are watching my range (which I doubt) I could have anything from Kxs through suited connectors through Axs, Ace-paint, any pair, AK-AQo. This range might widen even further against notable limp-folders and tight players in the blinds.
pokervince: Fold
Kurt444: Fold
luckyducky3: Call $2.50
spibs: Call $2.50
two callers is unusual here. Note that luckyducky3 is short-stacked.
*** FLOP *** [8♣ 9♣ K♡]
luckyducky3: Check
spibs: Check
Hero: Bet $7.00
I see no reason for not continuing here. If I get two callers and I miss on the turn, I'll check to get the free river.
luckyducky3: Allin $9.48
spibs: Fold
Hero: Call $2.48
mandatory. obviously
*** TURN *** [3♠]
*** RIVER *** [5♠]
I miss.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $27.31 Rake $1.40
luckyducky3: wins $27.31 with two pair, kings and eights.
+++++++++++
I only really mention that hand because this hand came up almost immediately on another table.
Texas Hold'em NL $0.25/$0.50
Seat 1: PikkuPoju ($18.90 in chips)
Seat 3: MeOnTilt ($77.60 in chips) DEALER
Seat 4: 2nik2007 ($38.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Hero ($44.00 in chips)
Seat 6: chameau79 ($29.30 in chips)
Seat 7: heyheypoker ($22.90 in chips)
Seat 8: Jenistotle1 ($53.60 in chips)
Seat 9: spibs ($38.75 in chips)
Seat 10: dsceurochamps5 ($19.00 in chips)
2nik2007: Post SB $0.25
Hero: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [10♡ K♡]
Dealt to MeOnTilt [A♠ Q♡]
Dealt to PikkuPoju [K◊ A◊]
chameau79: Fold
heyheypoker: Raise $2.00
Jenistotle1: Fold
spibs: Fold
dsceurochamps5: Fold
PikkuPoju: Call $2.00
MeOnTilt: Call $2.00
2nik2007: Fold
Hero: Call $1.50
"The Tunstall" (KT) is probably my least favourite hand, but suited and with three players against me and no chance of a reraise, I figured that I'd see three cards for a buck-fifty.
*** FLOP *** [A♡ 9♣ 3♡]
In a multi-wayer, I've seen worse flops. Now I'm drawing to the nuts.
Hero: Check
heyheypoker: Bet $5.00
PikkuPoju: Allin $16.90
MeOnTilt: Allin $75.60
Oh. I thought about this for a long time (like, three seconds.... which is forever, man) and then decided that the second all-in had reraised so early because his hand was vulnerable (say, AK...). If I'm only facing one all-in, I'm not really getting the odds here, but in this situation (much though I hate multi-wayers) and against the various ranges of opponents (and I still have the original bettor behind me!) I reckon that a call is just about +EV.
Hero: Allin $42.00
heyheypoker: Fold
*** TURN *** [4♠]
*** RIVER *** [J◊]
I miss.
Well, as it turns out, I'm putting in $42 to win $144, so I'm getting the pot odds as the cards lie. If it's set-over-set or similar, I'm also just about okay (well, if it's negative EV, it isn't by much). I'm probably only on the wrong side of the deal if larger stack has a set and smaller stack isn't taking away any of larger stack's outs.
I know I shouldn't have been "pleased" about this hand, but I was, in a way, because I had the courage to put in my entire stack when the odds were right (even though I was odds against).
Now, whether I was right to come in in the first place.....
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $144.75 Rake $3.00
PikkuPoju: wins $60.95
MeOnTilt: wins $83.80
++++++++++
I'm continuing $50 during the week and $100 at weekends at the moment, but I may try one or two $200 tables (rather than the three or four $100 tables which I'm playing at the moment) to see how comfortable I feel against the opposition. I've spotted a couple of plays at the $100 table that you don't see at the $50 (the check-mini-raise from a defended blind against a continuation bet on a raggy flop such as Qxx rainbow is a particular favourite) but nothing that seems in the least bit "difficult". I would imagine that there would be much more in the good player's armoury at $200 buy-in, but at least that would keep things intellectually challenging.
It's the Math
Date: 2007-07-15 11:07 am (UTC)You don't seem to have calculated your pot odds correctly, as you are counting the entire remaining stack of the largest stack who covers you, instead of only the effective stack which is the amount he matches you, i.e $42 not $75.60. So what happens is that when it comes around to you and you call, $16.90 of your stack will go into the main pot matching shortie and that portion of the big stack that matches as well, along with the dead money of the prelop pot of $8 and heyhey's $5 that he put in on the flop but gave up when he folded. Thus in the main pot which is around 46.80 before you call, you are getting 16.90*2+8+5=46.80 to your own 16.90, or 2.77-1 odds. That means you only need 26.5% equity for that call. But for the rest of your stack of 42-16.90=25.1, you are only getting even money in the sidepot and need 50% equity to call. In toto you are getting 8+5+16.90+42=71.9 to your 42, which is only 1.7-1 odds, for which you need an overall equity of 36.9% to call.
Now if you run some sims either HU or 3 way, putting the big stack on 2 pairs or a set, and shortie on AK/AQ, you are only going to be getting 26-31% equity depending on whether the big stack has 2 pair or a set. Which means you are taking 6-11% the worst of it. What you needed there was for both of the other two stacks to nearly equal yours, instead of being left for the larger portion of it HU for even money as a substantial dog.
These kind of situations with main and sidepots can be tricky, so it's good to study this kind of situation and run sims occasionally on various matchups to be able to play them right. Now if the action had gone shortie pushed, 4th guy folded and then biggie only smoothcalled, then you could try to raise him out by pushing and capture his call as dead money to give you better pot odds against shortie when your hand vs. hand matchup is as a dog.
BTW, I am glad you seem to be doing reasonably well in nl-land and adjusting. It really is the only way to go unless limit somehow makes a giant comeback. Or unless of course you want to dip your toe back into the PLO waters :).
BluffTHIS!
Re: It's the Math
Date: 2007-07-15 02:44 pm (UTC)You are right, of course. My point on "I was getting pot odds as the cards lie" was based on the fact that I put in $42, and the entire pot was $144, which meant that I was betting $42 to win $102. But, as you say, that includes $30 that I couldn't win -- a point that I failed to notice (darned stupid way of reporting hands that thes poker sites have!)
Indeed, what you write reflects my instinctive thought shortly after the hand, which roughly went "hmm, I was probably putting too little in at 2-to-1 and too much in at evens". And your maths prove this to be the case.
The situation partially arose because I felt in the few seconds that I had available (I was four-tabling at the time, I think) I reckoned that, if I was negative EV, I probably wasn't seriously negative EV. I knew that the big raiser was capable of isolation plays, and my read here was right (it was just my maths that were slightly askew). As the cards lie I'm probably giving up about 5%, which, at these stakes, I'm prepared to live with. For a start, it shows that I'm willing to follow my judgement for my entire stack, and I like the metagame implications of that. And, secondly, if I'm going to make this kind of error, it's best to make it when the money isn't that significant! If I'd folded here, I'd probably be none the wiser about the whole affair. This way, I've learnt something.
BTW, at the time, my money went in without me having time to look at the size of the main and side pot. Had I had that time available and noticed how little the original punter was all-in for, I think I would have folded "instinctively". However, if we push the original punter's stack up to, say $30 (i.e, about 75% of my stack) then the decision gets quite tough.
PJ