Nuts to the Nuts
Sep. 16th, 2007 02:01 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksI continue to run like a dog’s breakfast on Full Tilt.
I might have ballsed up this first hand. To be honest, I’m not really sure.
The second hand is just one of those things that happen when you are running bad. One of the other players actually congratulated me on how well I took it! (The player who beat me disappeared within a couple of seconds... obviously).
This was my first hand at the table. Ain’t it always the way. (Well. No, it isn't. Why do people say that?)
$0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 1: Topomango ($48.10) (Button. Rubdown Cunt. Please insult him if you see him at the tables.)
Seat 2: LuckyLittleGirl ($105.30)
Seat 3: Hero ($100)
Seat 4: uptownslim ($88.35)
Seat 5: bogdanelu73 ($69.65)
Seat 6: Dirty Ives ($25.35)
Seat 7: oddtime ($101.30)
Seat 8: Herard19 ($19.85)
Seat 9: Billy Zest ($107.15)
LuckyLittleGirl posts the small blind of $0.50
Hero posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [T♣ T◊]
All fold to
Topomango raises to $5
LuckyLittleGirl folds
Hero raises to $13
Topomango calls $8
I think this reraise is ok.
Pot size $25.50 or thereabouts.
Stacks remaining. Me $87. Villain $35.10
*** FLOP *** [4♡ 5◊ 9◊]
Hero bets $20
Topomango calls $20
I’m not sure about this. I’m either betting $20, $25, or going all-in. I’m pot-committed either way, and I’m trying to size the bet so that opponent calls me with overcards. If I had the time here I could do some range estimations and equity in all likely scenarios. Off the top of my head I reckoned that I was ahead of opponent about 90% of the time here. In some cases he had six outs, in some cases just three, and in some cases just two. If I’m behind, I have two outs. If I know that opponent will call an all-in bet, that's what I'm betting, but should I also go all-in if I think opponent will fold?. The question is, if opponent has an average of, say, six outs (balancing the lower number of outs scenarios with the hands where I am behind), do I win more by betting $20 and having him chase, or do I win more by going all-in and taking down the pot there and then?
I dunno, maybe I should just shove. This was late Saturday night US time. Shoving probably gets a call and therefore probably has the highest EV. If he folds, the EV lost by missing the call for a lower bet is not that great.
*** TURN *** [4♡ 5◊ 9◊] [A♡]
Just about the shittiest card in the deck but, like I say, I’m committed here. Hell, opponent might still have a small pair, and at least he's committed too.
Hero bets $15
Topomango raises to $15.10, and is all in
Hero calls $0.10
Topomango shows [A◊ Q♡]
Hero shows [T♣ T◊]
*** RIVER *** [4♡ 5◊ 9◊ A♡] [6◊]
Topomango shows a pair of Aces
Hero shows a pair of Tens
Topomango wins the pot ($93.70) with a pair of Aces
A nice way to start the morning.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $96.70 | Rake $3
Board: [4♡ 5◊ 9◊ A♡ 6◊]
Seat 1: Topomango (button) showed [A◊ Q♡] and won ($93.70) with a pair of Aces
Seat 3: Hero (big blind) showed [T♣ T◊] and lost with a pair of Tens
One interesting thing about this hand was that it was a good example of SPR in action, but it made no difference that I sat down with a full stack, because opponent had a half-buy-in, so effectively I was playing a half-buy-in. I'm not quite sure how I'd play this against a full-stacked opponent. I guess that if I reraise, I'm committed to some kind of bet on the flop, and $20 strikes me as good as any. But then what do I do when the Ace comes on the turn? I can't see me being in front a third of the time, so I guess there's a case for check-fold, even though on some rare occasions this means that you are folding to a lower pair or to a hand like KQ. Actually, maybe there's an argument for another $25 bet (into a $66 pot) or something like that. If opponent has the small pair or KQ, he'll fold, and if he has the Ace, he'll either call or raise. That way you only risk $25 to win a possible $66. I dunno. These areas are still difficult for me.
A few hands later this player (who, it transpired, was around 40%/20% VPIP/Raise) almost certainly sucked out to a flush against my two pair (in fact the fourth of the suit on the river probably saved me). Stacks were deep enough to allow me to fold.
A couple of hands after that he raised to $4 in late and I reraised to $12 on the button. He folded quickly.
We then got the following chat:
Topomango: now all u gotta do is learn how to play post flop
bogdanelu73 bets $4
Topomango: gl
Dirty Ives folds
Uncalled bet of $4 returned to bogdanelu73
Hero: y
bogdanelu73 mucks
bogdanelu73 wins the pot ($3.80)
Hero: I believe the phrase is GIQ
+++++++++++++
No self-criticism about this following hand. It happened about four minutes after the above hand, so I had been sitting down for five minutes and was already half a buy-in down.
FullTiltPoker Game $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:45ET - 2007/09/16
Seat 1: sornmajstr ($30.50)
Seat 2: Villain ($85.45)
Seat 3: Beauner ($58.30)
Seat 4: drdrillem ($93)
Seat 5: kauppa ($53.15)
Seat 6: jiffybag ($137) (Button)
Seat 7: Jammin D ($74.85) (SB)
Seat 8: windchaser ($171.50) (BB)
Seat 9: Hero ($96) (UTG)
Jammin D posts the small blind of $0.50
windchaser posts the big blind of $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [A♡ Q♣]
Hero raises to $3
I probably do more of these than I should, but my numbers are coming out good with this kind of bet (they also came out good with the mini-raise, but I sensed that I was facing an increasing likelihood of a reraise, so I upped the ante a bit. For the moment, the $3 is usually working well). But I’m not dogmatically tied to it.
sornmajstr folds
Villain calls $3
Opponent appears to be laggyish.
All other fold
*** FLOP *** [T♠ K♠ J◊]
Ahh, a flopped straight. I believe that this is good
Hero bets $5
Villain raises to $10
and it’s getting better.
Hero raises to $35
Villain raises to $82.45, and is all in
Hero calls $47.45
Villain shows [T♡ J♣]
Hero shows [A♡ Q♣]
*** TURN *** [T♠ K♠ J◊] [T♣]
Whoops, no, it got worse again.
*** RIVER *** [T♠ K♠ J◊ T♣] [8♠]
Villain shows a full house, Tens full of Jacks
Hero shows a straight, Ace high
Villain wins the pot ($169.40) with a full house, Tens full of Jacks
Hero: :-)
Hero: This site hates me.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $172.40 | Rake $3
Board: [T♠ K♠ J◊ T♣ 8♠]
Seat 2: Villain showed [T♡ J♣] and won ($169.40) with a full house, Tens full of Jacks
Seat 9: Hero showed [A♡ Q♣] and lost with a straight, Ace high
I'm now $450 down at the tables on Full Tilt this month -- soon I'll need to win the Gold Iron Man Challenge to break even.
+++++++++++++++++++
Some interesting developments in the blogging world. Pinky has given up the pro life, noting that it's very hard to bring your 'A' game to the table 40 hours a weak. He also spotted that he had been focusing more on rakeback and not enough on winning at the tables. I confess, this is a hole that I fall into occasionally, but I really try to drag myself out of it. Pinky should feel no shame in failing. He gave it a shot and got out when it didn't work out.
Simon Young (Suffolk Punch) has also re-entered the world of paid employment. I don't know what to say about a nice guy who chooses mysterious employers (he left The Sun, and has moved to PartyGaming). I hope it all works out well for him, but I would treat any deal signed with PartyGaming to deep and serious consideration. They are not people I would want as an employer. I think that any perusal of their dealings with EmpireGaming (a grown-up operation that knew how to look after itself, much to PartyGaming's legal cost) would show what kind of moral attitude they have to the whole business.
Oh, and look at the IPO price (equals, money that went from investors into the pockets of the founders) and look at the price now (equals, the money the investors would get today if they sold their shares on the open market). Yes, I think we can see who ran out the winners on that one.
+++++++++++
Nice to see that Mr Hellmuth, among all his other lovable traits, is also a slow-roller (see the account of one WSOPE player who said that he had been waiting "many years" to get back at Hellmuth for a slow-roll he had performed once). Why am I not surprised? What would have been really nice would have been if a security guard had come up to Hellmuth while he was talking to the TV feature table and said "Excuse me sir, are you still in this competition? If not, I'll have to ask you to leave the successful players to their game."
"Don't you know who I am?!!! I have 11 WSOP bracelets!!"
"The past is the past, sir. You'll still have to leave the TV area."
Perhaps Hellmuth might like to compare tapes of him as a youngster at the poker tables with the poise with which Annette 15 (and the rest of the TV table, as far as I could see) is comporting herself.
____________
I might have ballsed up this first hand. To be honest, I’m not really sure.
The second hand is just one of those things that happen when you are running bad. One of the other players actually congratulated me on how well I took it! (The player who beat me disappeared within a couple of seconds... obviously).
This was my first hand at the table. Ain’t it always the way. (Well. No, it isn't. Why do people say that?)
$0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 1: Topomango ($48.10) (Button. Rubdown Cunt. Please insult him if you see him at the tables.)
Seat 2: LuckyLittleGirl ($105.30)
Seat 3: Hero ($100)
Seat 4: uptownslim ($88.35)
Seat 5: bogdanelu73 ($69.65)
Seat 6: Dirty Ives ($25.35)
Seat 7: oddtime ($101.30)
Seat 8: Herard19 ($19.85)
Seat 9: Billy Zest ($107.15)
LuckyLittleGirl posts the small blind of $0.50
Hero posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [T♣ T◊]
All fold to
Topomango raises to $5
LuckyLittleGirl folds
Hero raises to $13
Topomango calls $8
I think this reraise is ok.
Pot size $25.50 or thereabouts.
Stacks remaining. Me $87. Villain $35.10
*** FLOP *** [4♡ 5◊ 9◊]
Hero bets $20
Topomango calls $20
I’m not sure about this. I’m either betting $20, $25, or going all-in. I’m pot-committed either way, and I’m trying to size the bet so that opponent calls me with overcards. If I had the time here I could do some range estimations and equity in all likely scenarios. Off the top of my head I reckoned that I was ahead of opponent about 90% of the time here. In some cases he had six outs, in some cases just three, and in some cases just two. If I’m behind, I have two outs. If I know that opponent will call an all-in bet, that's what I'm betting, but should I also go all-in if I think opponent will fold?. The question is, if opponent has an average of, say, six outs (balancing the lower number of outs scenarios with the hands where I am behind), do I win more by betting $20 and having him chase, or do I win more by going all-in and taking down the pot there and then?
I dunno, maybe I should just shove. This was late Saturday night US time. Shoving probably gets a call and therefore probably has the highest EV. If he folds, the EV lost by missing the call for a lower bet is not that great.
*** TURN *** [4♡ 5◊ 9◊] [A♡]
Just about the shittiest card in the deck but, like I say, I’m committed here. Hell, opponent might still have a small pair, and at least he's committed too.
Hero bets $15
Topomango raises to $15.10, and is all in
Hero calls $0.10
Topomango shows [A◊ Q♡]
Hero shows [T♣ T◊]
*** RIVER *** [4♡ 5◊ 9◊ A♡] [6◊]
Topomango shows a pair of Aces
Hero shows a pair of Tens
Topomango wins the pot ($93.70) with a pair of Aces
A nice way to start the morning.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $96.70 | Rake $3
Board: [4♡ 5◊ 9◊ A♡ 6◊]
Seat 1: Topomango (button) showed [A◊ Q♡] and won ($93.70) with a pair of Aces
Seat 3: Hero (big blind) showed [T♣ T◊] and lost with a pair of Tens
One interesting thing about this hand was that it was a good example of SPR in action, but it made no difference that I sat down with a full stack, because opponent had a half-buy-in, so effectively I was playing a half-buy-in. I'm not quite sure how I'd play this against a full-stacked opponent. I guess that if I reraise, I'm committed to some kind of bet on the flop, and $20 strikes me as good as any. But then what do I do when the Ace comes on the turn? I can't see me being in front a third of the time, so I guess there's a case for check-fold, even though on some rare occasions this means that you are folding to a lower pair or to a hand like KQ. Actually, maybe there's an argument for another $25 bet (into a $66 pot) or something like that. If opponent has the small pair or KQ, he'll fold, and if he has the Ace, he'll either call or raise. That way you only risk $25 to win a possible $66. I dunno. These areas are still difficult for me.
A few hands later this player (who, it transpired, was around 40%/20% VPIP/Raise) almost certainly sucked out to a flush against my two pair (in fact the fourth of the suit on the river probably saved me). Stacks were deep enough to allow me to fold.
A couple of hands after that he raised to $4 in late and I reraised to $12 on the button. He folded quickly.
We then got the following chat:
Topomango: now all u gotta do is learn how to play post flop
bogdanelu73 bets $4
Topomango: gl
Dirty Ives folds
Uncalled bet of $4 returned to bogdanelu73
Hero: y
bogdanelu73 mucks
bogdanelu73 wins the pot ($3.80)
Hero: I believe the phrase is GIQ
+++++++++++++
No self-criticism about this following hand. It happened about four minutes after the above hand, so I had been sitting down for five minutes and was already half a buy-in down.
FullTiltPoker Game $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:45ET - 2007/09/16
Seat 1: sornmajstr ($30.50)
Seat 2: Villain ($85.45)
Seat 3: Beauner ($58.30)
Seat 4: drdrillem ($93)
Seat 5: kauppa ($53.15)
Seat 6: jiffybag ($137) (Button)
Seat 7: Jammin D ($74.85) (SB)
Seat 8: windchaser ($171.50) (BB)
Seat 9: Hero ($96) (UTG)
Jammin D posts the small blind of $0.50
windchaser posts the big blind of $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [A♡ Q♣]
Hero raises to $3
I probably do more of these than I should, but my numbers are coming out good with this kind of bet (they also came out good with the mini-raise, but I sensed that I was facing an increasing likelihood of a reraise, so I upped the ante a bit. For the moment, the $3 is usually working well). But I’m not dogmatically tied to it.
sornmajstr folds
Villain calls $3
Opponent appears to be laggyish.
All other fold
*** FLOP *** [T♠ K♠ J◊]
Ahh, a flopped straight. I believe that this is good
Hero bets $5
Villain raises to $10
and it’s getting better.
Hero raises to $35
Villain raises to $82.45, and is all in
Hero calls $47.45
Villain shows [T♡ J♣]
Hero shows [A♡ Q♣]
*** TURN *** [T♠ K♠ J◊] [T♣]
Whoops, no, it got worse again.
*** RIVER *** [T♠ K♠ J◊ T♣] [8♠]
Villain shows a full house, Tens full of Jacks
Hero shows a straight, Ace high
Villain wins the pot ($169.40) with a full house, Tens full of Jacks
Hero: :-)
Hero: This site hates me.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $172.40 | Rake $3
Board: [T♠ K♠ J◊ T♣ 8♠]
Seat 2: Villain showed [T♡ J♣] and won ($169.40) with a full house, Tens full of Jacks
Seat 9: Hero showed [A♡ Q♣] and lost with a straight, Ace high
I'm now $450 down at the tables on Full Tilt this month -- soon I'll need to win the Gold Iron Man Challenge to break even.
+++++++++++++++++++
Some interesting developments in the blogging world. Pinky has given up the pro life, noting that it's very hard to bring your 'A' game to the table 40 hours a weak. He also spotted that he had been focusing more on rakeback and not enough on winning at the tables. I confess, this is a hole that I fall into occasionally, but I really try to drag myself out of it. Pinky should feel no shame in failing. He gave it a shot and got out when it didn't work out.
Simon Young (Suffolk Punch) has also re-entered the world of paid employment. I don't know what to say about a nice guy who chooses mysterious employers (he left The Sun, and has moved to PartyGaming). I hope it all works out well for him, but I would treat any deal signed with PartyGaming to deep and serious consideration. They are not people I would want as an employer. I think that any perusal of their dealings with EmpireGaming (a grown-up operation that knew how to look after itself, much to PartyGaming's legal cost) would show what kind of moral attitude they have to the whole business.
Oh, and look at the IPO price (equals, money that went from investors into the pockets of the founders) and look at the price now (equals, the money the investors would get today if they sold their shares on the open market). Yes, I think we can see who ran out the winners on that one.
+++++++++++
Nice to see that Mr Hellmuth, among all his other lovable traits, is also a slow-roller (see the account of one WSOPE player who said that he had been waiting "many years" to get back at Hellmuth for a slow-roll he had performed once). Why am I not surprised? What would have been really nice would have been if a security guard had come up to Hellmuth while he was talking to the TV feature table and said "Excuse me sir, are you still in this competition? If not, I'll have to ask you to leave the successful players to their game."
"Don't you know who I am?!!! I have 11 WSOP bracelets!!"
"The past is the past, sir. You'll still have to leave the TV area."
Perhaps Hellmuth might like to compare tapes of him as a youngster at the poker tables with the poise with which Annette 15 (and the rest of the TV table, as far as I could see) is comporting herself.
____________
no subject
Date: 2007-09-17 12:55 pm (UTC)If he's calling 20 on the flop with 6 outs and giving up on river if he misses then this play loses 20 13/15 of the time and wins 60 2/15 of the time ... net result ~ -9. [If he misses and wants to call off another 15 on the end to win 80 then thats another -EV error.] If he would call a shove then he loses 35 about 3/4 of the time and wins 60 1/4 of the time so net ~ -11 or so.
So it doesnt make much difference. If betting 20 elicits a call where shoving wouldnt then it's definitely better.
matt
no subject
Date: 2007-09-17 10:44 pm (UTC)If the guy calls for 20 on the flop with six outs, one assumes he'll call for 15 (all that he has left) on the turn as well if he misses there, since he's getting 75-to-15 for his money. That was really the reason I structured the bets that way -- he's getting bad odds for both bets. If he's going to make the two -EV errors, is that a bigger error (compounded) than the single minus EV error if I shove on the flop.
I don't think that there's much in it, so it's not worth losing sleep over. If he would have folded to my shove on the flop, then I played it right ... I think.
PJ
no subject
Date: 2007-09-17 10:54 pm (UTC)If I shove on flop and opponent folds, I get +26. I'm only looking to win another 35 from opponent. So, although opponent's fold on flop to my shove would be the correct play from his point of view, it still might be the best play for me to shove on flop and take it down, rather than to battle for the extra 35 and risk the initial 26. I have problems with these types of calculations, and I shouldn't have. I get there if I sit down with a bit of paper and work it out slowly, but I can't see the answer in my head straight away.
Let's see.
26 in pot. I shove, he folds. Net profit to me over 100 hands, 2600.
26 in pot. I bet 20. He calls (folds on turn if he misses).
I win 46 about 85 times and lose 45 about 15 times, yes? That gives me 3350 over the 100 hands. So, yes, the 20 bet is right.
See, I just need the paper.
PB