The Blogging Hype

[peterbirks]

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!

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Registration code: 8320809

Comments

Hurray! Brown's bottled it!

[(Anonymous)]

Gordon fails the test. Dancing in the aisles at Tory head office.

DY

Re: Hurray! Brown's bottled it!

[peterbirks.livejournal.com]

Hi David:

Yep, amazing. As we discussed on the phone, the Conservative bounce was utterly predictable. If it was this which changed Brown's mind, then his grasp of how opinion polls work (or, rather, how public support for a party varies according to media exposure) is dodgy indeed.

However, the important point is, Brown should have gone anyway; because, no matter how risky it looks now, it's a better bet than it will be in 18 months time. It's the classic scenario where a negative EV play in limit poker is the right play, because the alternative is even more negative EV.

Except that, in this case, we aren't even sure that the option he has turned down is negative EV.

Perhaps politicians are inherently optimistic (like salesmen) because you need that attribute of irrational self-belief to get to the top in politics. But I always thought of Brown as more than most a facts and figures man. And one look at the facts and figures must surely tell him that in 2009 things are not going to be looking very bright. Indeed, my bet now would be on a 2010 election, because if he puts it off now, he sure as hell isn't likely to go to the country a year earlier than necessary in the pit-shit of economic mess that we will be in in 2009.

I hate to be happy about this, because at heart I really do want society to work well, no matter how much I might be able to exploit its misery (join the Birks mattress fund now!)

And, well, maybe I'll get made redundant, and I won't be able to sell my flat at any price in order to finance my move to Riga, where I shall sit in self-imposed exile, paying the rent out of interest and modest winnings online, my times of ennui only leavened by the occasional visits of 20-year-old Latvian hookers for an evening of Scrabble.

PJ

Re: Hurray! Brown's bottled it!

[(Anonymous)]

Having spent a lifetime climbing the greasy pole, I was very doubtful that such a non-gambler would want to risk is all so soon. 120 days in office would seem awfully short after 35 years in politics. Even if he loses in autumn 2009 or spring 2010, he'll have 2-3 years as PM that no-one can ever take away from him. The +ev for him of staying in power is (for him) very significant.

Matt Harrison

[real-aardvark.livejournal.com]

And, more to the point, that sounds like fun. I look forward to reading about the inevitable car-crash/plucky little Brit comes good story.

For the rest of us non-poker-playing readers, however, could you spice it up by interpolating WTF covers between hands? As it were...