Easy come, easy go
Oct. 23rd, 2007 01:40 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksIf there's one area where you probably have to have currency hedging facilities in place, it's that of ship construction -- a long-term business frequently involving a range of currencies. However, it's also best to ensure that you have good compliance and auditing in place as well.
Step forward SembMarine of Singapore, which got the first bit right, but not the second. About US$248m seems to have been lost by the company's finance director. This is not proprietary trading gone wrong. Sembmarine doesn't allow for any speculative trading. All deals are meant to be hedges against 'real life' agreements. In other words, the only logical explanation for the loss is that the finance director discovered that he liked a punt, and currency trading can be the crack cocaine of punting fun. The markets hardly ever close. BTW, Sembmarine made a profit of $238m last year, so it looks like this gambling foray will wipe out a year's profits. Quality.
I hesitate to imply that it's in the Asian nature to like a gamble, despite the perpetually full betting shops in London's Chinatown. But one might recall that China Aviation Oil also had a senior executive (the CEO) who traded way beyond the company's means, and then he made the mistake of hiding it from investors. That was $500m or so down the pan. All this money presumably ends up somewhere -- although unfortunately not in my pocket. These guys must be the equivalent of the occasional big fish who turns up at a live or online poker game. The trading desks all go into a frenzy trying to get the money first. I look forward to Citigroup (or whichever counterparty it was) boasting in its quartlery results "yeah, we skinned that sucker alive". Unfortunately, I doubt that such a statement would see the light of day:
+++++++++++++++
I got lucky on this hand, but opponent still made some errors.
$100 USD NL Texas Hold'em -
Table Jackpot #1306360 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: Asiojena ( $98 USD )
Seat 1: Asiojena ( $98 USD )
Seat 3: SeaEagle2007 ( $80 USD )
Seat 4: grebgokz ( $18.88 USD )
Seat 6: strapatone ( $54.59 USD )
Seat 7: LudoA ( $19 USD )
Seat 8: Villain ( $149.70 USD )
Seat 9: Lobbut ( $166.50 USD )
Seat 10: SIMPLY_No_1 ( $146.35 USD )
Hero posts big blind [$1 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ J◊ K◊ ]
SeaEagle2007 folds.
grebgokz folds.
strapatone raises $1 [to $2 USD]
LudoA folds.
Villain calls [$2 USD]
Lobbut folds.
SIMPLY_No_1 folds.
Asiojena folds.
Hero calls [$1 USD]
Not much worry about calling this mini-raise.
** Dealing Flop ** [ T◊, 8♣, K♠ ]
Hero bets [$4 USD]
Not much point in not betting out if I hit top pair
strapatone calls [$4 USD]
Villain calls [$4 USD]
Woooh. Action. $18 in the pot
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9◊ ]
That gives me flush draw, gutshot draw and top pair. It also puts a potential straight on the board, but with only two opponents, two-pair is a bigger worry. But two-pair will likely be scared to raise here. All in all, I elected for 2/3 of the pot.
Hero bets [$12 USD]
strapatone calls [$12 USD]
Villain raises [$43 USD]
Ouch. However, Villain is deep-stacked. There’s $85 in the pot. Assuming that I am beaten and that I need a Queen to tie and a diamond to win, I reckon that I need an expected win of $120 or thereabouts to make my call right. That’s about $35 needed in implied odds. If the player on my left calls I’m definitely getting the odds. If he folds, it’s marginal. Oh, fuck it. Call
Hero calls [$31 USD]
strapatone folds.
$116 in the pot
** Dealing River ** [ 2◊ ]
Woo hoo.
Hero bets [$30 USD]
I have $50 behind. I think if I bet all of it, Villain will lay down even a straight. Judging these bets is really hard and you can never really be sure that you got it right. Opponent only needs to call my all-in bet about 60% of the time that he calls my $30 bet for the all-in to be right. But, well, my read is that $30 is about the maximum that this guy will take.
Villain calls [$30 USD]
Hero shows [ J◊, K◊ ]a flush, King high.
Villain shows [ J♡, Q♣ ]a straight Nine to King.
Hero wins $173 USD from the main pot with a flush, King high.
I think opponent should raise more than $31 on the turn. The pot is big enough to take down there and then. Depending on his feel for a gamble, I'd raise either $50 or I would shove.
Step forward SembMarine of Singapore, which got the first bit right, but not the second. About US$248m seems to have been lost by the company's finance director. This is not proprietary trading gone wrong. Sembmarine doesn't allow for any speculative trading. All deals are meant to be hedges against 'real life' agreements. In other words, the only logical explanation for the loss is that the finance director discovered that he liked a punt, and currency trading can be the crack cocaine of punting fun. The markets hardly ever close. BTW, Sembmarine made a profit of $238m last year, so it looks like this gambling foray will wipe out a year's profits. Quality.
I hesitate to imply that it's in the Asian nature to like a gamble, despite the perpetually full betting shops in London's Chinatown. But one might recall that China Aviation Oil also had a senior executive (the CEO) who traded way beyond the company's means, and then he made the mistake of hiding it from investors. That was $500m or so down the pan. All this money presumably ends up somewhere -- although unfortunately not in my pocket. These guys must be the equivalent of the occasional big fish who turns up at a live or online poker game. The trading desks all go into a frenzy trying to get the money first. I look forward to Citigroup (or whichever counterparty it was) boasting in its quartlery results "yeah, we skinned that sucker alive". Unfortunately, I doubt that such a statement would see the light of day:
+++++++++++++++
I got lucky on this hand, but opponent still made some errors.
$100 USD NL Texas Hold'em -
Table Jackpot #1306360 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: Asiojena ( $98 USD )
Seat 1: Asiojena ( $98 USD )
Seat 3: SeaEagle2007 ( $80 USD )
Seat 4: grebgokz ( $18.88 USD )
Seat 6: strapatone ( $54.59 USD )
Seat 7: LudoA ( $19 USD )
Seat 8: Villain ( $149.70 USD )
Seat 9: Lobbut ( $166.50 USD )
Seat 10: SIMPLY_No_1 ( $146.35 USD )
Hero posts big blind [$1 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ J◊ K◊ ]
SeaEagle2007 folds.
grebgokz folds.
strapatone raises $1 [to $2 USD]
LudoA folds.
Villain calls [$2 USD]
Lobbut folds.
SIMPLY_No_1 folds.
Asiojena folds.
Hero calls [$1 USD]
Not much worry about calling this mini-raise.
** Dealing Flop ** [ T◊, 8♣, K♠ ]
Hero bets [$4 USD]
Not much point in not betting out if I hit top pair
strapatone calls [$4 USD]
Villain calls [$4 USD]
Woooh. Action. $18 in the pot
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9◊ ]
That gives me flush draw, gutshot draw and top pair. It also puts a potential straight on the board, but with only two opponents, two-pair is a bigger worry. But two-pair will likely be scared to raise here. All in all, I elected for 2/3 of the pot.
Hero bets [$12 USD]
strapatone calls [$12 USD]
Villain raises [$43 USD]
Ouch. However, Villain is deep-stacked. There’s $85 in the pot. Assuming that I am beaten and that I need a Queen to tie and a diamond to win, I reckon that I need an expected win of $120 or thereabouts to make my call right. That’s about $35 needed in implied odds. If the player on my left calls I’m definitely getting the odds. If he folds, it’s marginal. Oh, fuck it. Call
Hero calls [$31 USD]
strapatone folds.
$116 in the pot
** Dealing River ** [ 2◊ ]
Woo hoo.
Hero bets [$30 USD]
I have $50 behind. I think if I bet all of it, Villain will lay down even a straight. Judging these bets is really hard and you can never really be sure that you got it right. Opponent only needs to call my all-in bet about 60% of the time that he calls my $30 bet for the all-in to be right. But, well, my read is that $30 is about the maximum that this guy will take.
Villain calls [$30 USD]
Hero shows [ J◊, K◊ ]a flush, King high.
Villain shows [ J♡, Q♣ ]a straight Nine to King.
Hero wins $173 USD from the main pot with a flush, King high.
I think opponent should raise more than $31 on the turn. The pot is big enough to take down there and then. Depending on his feel for a gamble, I'd raise either $50 or I would shove.
no subject
Date: 2007-10-24 12:58 am (UTC)