Factored In
Oct. 29th, 2007 11:34 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksBuy on the rumour, sell on the news is an old adage -- so old, in fact, that in currencies it can be a good idea to sell ahead of the news. Exactly when to sell ahead of the news is the real art.
With Sterling now close to its previous high of $2.0650, the money markets have clearly priced in a quarter-point cut by the US this Wednesday. Indeed, it could be argued that they have priced in a fair chance of a 0.5% cut.
Personally I don't think there's an ice-cream's chance in Los Angeles that Bernanke will sanction a 0.5% cut. He doesn't want even a 0.25% cut, and this could be an interesting time for him to "stand up to the markets" and do nothing. That's the kind of gutsy thing that Greenspan would have done, but Bernanke is made of softer stuff. he will probably capitulate and cut by 0.25%.
But, all of that put together makes me feel that there's time for a bit of a pullback. No rune-reading or anything; just a feeling that there's a lot of money that's been made that's begging to be pocketed. Perhaps a pullback to something like $2.0380. That's a potential two-cent gain from the current position. When it comes, the newspaper mutter about fundamental weaknesses in the UK economy, the housing market, etc, as "causes". Narrative fallacy boys, narrative fallacy.
++++++++++
Now that the Central Line is being extended to Poland for peak-hour services, the elections in Poland are of some interest to London residents -- unlike, for example, elections in places like Ireland or Scotland. (The Irish and Scottish politicians are indistringuishable from the English ones ayway, so there is little of interest to hold us there).
I see that President "Lech" Kaczynski has failed to appear in public to congratulate the victorious Civic Platform opposition. Meanwhile, the defeated prime minister, "Jaroslaw" Kaczynski, is set to resign on November 5.
All of this is a marvellous myth. There is only one Kaczynski - Tomas "Tommy" Kaczynski. Tommy played two roles as a child actor in The Man Who Stole The Moon (1962), but the film's creators pretended for marketing purposes that Tommy was twins. The parents were quite happy with this, receiving two fees rather than one, on condition that they kept quiet.
Since then Tommy Kaczynski has edged his way up the political ladder, working hard in two roles throughout. He reached the pinnacle of his ambition when he managed to be elected president in one role and prime minister in the other. Now, even with defeat as prime minister, he remains president. Putin himself couldn't have come up with such a dazzling scheme.
With Sterling now close to its previous high of $2.0650, the money markets have clearly priced in a quarter-point cut by the US this Wednesday. Indeed, it could be argued that they have priced in a fair chance of a 0.5% cut.
Personally I don't think there's an ice-cream's chance in Los Angeles that Bernanke will sanction a 0.5% cut. He doesn't want even a 0.25% cut, and this could be an interesting time for him to "stand up to the markets" and do nothing. That's the kind of gutsy thing that Greenspan would have done, but Bernanke is made of softer stuff. he will probably capitulate and cut by 0.25%.
But, all of that put together makes me feel that there's time for a bit of a pullback. No rune-reading or anything; just a feeling that there's a lot of money that's been made that's begging to be pocketed. Perhaps a pullback to something like $2.0380. That's a potential two-cent gain from the current position. When it comes, the newspaper mutter about fundamental weaknesses in the UK economy, the housing market, etc, as "causes". Narrative fallacy boys, narrative fallacy.
++++++++++
Now that the Central Line is being extended to Poland for peak-hour services, the elections in Poland are of some interest to London residents -- unlike, for example, elections in places like Ireland or Scotland. (The Irish and Scottish politicians are indistringuishable from the English ones ayway, so there is little of interest to hold us there).
I see that President "Lech" Kaczynski has failed to appear in public to congratulate the victorious Civic Platform opposition. Meanwhile, the defeated prime minister, "Jaroslaw" Kaczynski, is set to resign on November 5.
All of this is a marvellous myth. There is only one Kaczynski - Tomas "Tommy" Kaczynski. Tommy played two roles as a child actor in The Man Who Stole The Moon (1962), but the film's creators pretended for marketing purposes that Tommy was twins. The parents were quite happy with this, receiving two fees rather than one, on condition that they kept quiet.
Since then Tommy Kaczynski has edged his way up the political ladder, working hard in two roles throughout. He reached the pinnacle of his ambition when he managed to be elected president in one role and prime minister in the other. Now, even with defeat as prime minister, he remains president. Putin himself couldn't have come up with such a dazzling scheme.
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no subject
Date: 2007-10-29 12:14 pm (UTC)Trying to technical trade currencies is not wise. If you try funda-"mentalism" then you need something more than "oversold".
The future sees... the majority of world dollars in China. China giving up the Yuan to become the de facto owner of the dollar and some unknown in Beijing becoming the new head of the Fed.
Join me in the dark side Peter.
JayBee. xxx
no subject
Date: 2007-10-29 12:24 pm (UTC)I still see $2.10 before March next year (although there are problems with Sterling that make me more amenable to being long euro/dollar). And the thing about the dollar is that it is like catholicism -- eventually the bloody thing just produces itself out of trouble. With softs being the new black, the dollar could actually be in for a period of favouritism in the second half of next year. Is that fundamental enough for you? :-)
PJ
no subject
Date: 2007-10-29 12:31 pm (UTC)PS - I have your blog RSS-ed so I comment nice and early because your posts are there in Thunderbird. I have nothing else better to do. Not a stalking situation. Honest.
no subject
Date: 2007-10-29 05:51 pm (UTC)Oh well, two days to go to lose my £10 bet. Sterling/Dollar is tricky because both sides are flailing around at the moment. Euro/Dollar is tricky because, well, because Sarkozy. Not to mention the imminent implosion of the Spanish economy. Interesting politics, there ... I foresee a European constitution that "isn't" a constitution (not when speaking in English, anyhow) and a European currency that just isn't, period. The worst of both worlds, really.
I suspect that Swiss Francs/Dollar would be a more stable bet. Shame I closed my account there (it was, needless to say, denominated in dollars; let no-one deny that I am consistent in my stupidity).