Time short, cash rich
Feb. 16th, 2008 12:27 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksWell, unfortunately, not even the latter is true at the moment. Every morning I just get up and see another bill. It's fun this buy-to-let. Not.
I should be out buying a carpet and/or a lawnmower and/or a garden hose at the moment (or ironing), but, fuck it, I'm on holiday.
Oh, no, I'm not on holiday. Oh well, I don't care. I'm going back to the front room to read The Guardian, or a book, or watch The Wire.
I've got a nice piece to write on CDOs, but I know that it will take me 90 minutes or so, so, maybe tomorrow, which is at least a bit of a designated work day.
++++++++++
I dropped back down to $50 buy-in on Party to clear off the latest even-more-pathetic-than-last-time bonus (a cent a hand, by my reckoning).
I did this partly because I have no shame. If things are going wrong at $100 buy-in, drop back down and rebuild. One of the reasons given against dropping back down is that you tend to call too loosely. But if you are calling too infrequently (a flaw I suspected that I had on Party because of the nature of the game on the IP network), then making looser calls may be no bad thing. It also gives me an opportunity to play around with ideas that might be a bit expensive if they go wrong at the higher level.
This one worked.
$50 NL Texas Hold'em -
Table Jackpot (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: destiny11112 ( $19.05 )
Seat 2: accrobate111 ( $49.25 )
Seat 3: Fishheads4u ( $47.70 )
Seat 4: Hero ( $48.84 )
Seat 5: chuli123 ( $96.39 )
Seat 6: swandom ( $27.27 )
Seat 7: sasa198306 ( $17.64 )
Seat 8: Joe_Bluffer ( $53.79 )
Seat 9: OoopSiDidYa ( $140.98 )
Seat 10: Villain ( $29.58 ) (no stats to speak of, but what I had indicated looseness, but not much aggression).
Hero posts small blind [$0.25 ].
chuli123 posts big blind [$0.50 ].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ K◊ K♣ ]
swandom folds.
sasa198306 calls [$0.50 ]
Joe_Bluffer folds.
OoopSiDidYa folds.
Villain raises [$2.50 ]
destiny11112 folds.
accrobate111 folds.
Fishheads4u folds.
Hero raises [$7.75 ]
It appears that at the lower level you can raise by higher amounts (proportionally) for the same effect. Obviously players are looser, but it would appear that the absolute value/relative value dichotomy also exists. People think “it’s $5, rather than “it’s a pot bet”. Given the size of opponent's stack, I'm not far from being committed here no matter what the flop is.
chuli123 folds.
sasa198306 folds.
Villain calls [$5.50 ]
$16 in pot
** Dealing Flop ** [ A♣, 9◊, 8♡ ]
Hero checks.
On IP this play is virtually pointless. All that you will be doing is giving a lower pair a chance to hit a two-outer when he checks behind. However, if you decide that you are calling an all-in bet from opponent, you potentially gain more from checking than from betting. Other factors on my mind here. His call of my reraise mitigates against AK, which often goes all-in pre-flop in this kind of situation. That makes a pair a fraction above 50%.
Villain is all-In for $21.58
I'm only considering folding if opponent bets something like $10 here. Less than that and it's likely an attempt to get the pot cheaply. Much more and it's quite possibly a value-shove or total bluff.
Hero calls [$21.58 ]
If opponent has a set of nines or a set of eights, he would often bet a smaller amount. Sure, some players might shove with the big hand. But some would bet small. However, the player with a lower pair than an Ace is likely to either check or shove at this level (on IP, the pair would check behind 99% of the time). With AQ or AJ, why shove? It’s a rainbow board as well. This looks like the classic “I have an Ace” bet from a player who doesnn’t realize that, if he actually had an Ace, he would not be shoving.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2◊ ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4♡ ]
Hero shows [ K◊, K♣ ]a pair of Kings.
Villain doesn't show [ T♡, T♣ ]a pair of Tens.
Hero wins $56.66 from the main pot with a pair of Kings.
++++++++++++
Ticket for Speed The Plow at the Old Vic with Kevin Spacey and Jeff Goldblum arrived this morning. Yum Yum. Gold dust for good seats.
I should be out buying a carpet and/or a lawnmower and/or a garden hose at the moment (or ironing), but, fuck it, I'm on holiday.
Oh, no, I'm not on holiday. Oh well, I don't care. I'm going back to the front room to read The Guardian, or a book, or watch The Wire.
I've got a nice piece to write on CDOs, but I know that it will take me 90 minutes or so, so, maybe tomorrow, which is at least a bit of a designated work day.
++++++++++
I dropped back down to $50 buy-in on Party to clear off the latest even-more-pathetic-than-last-time bonus (a cent a hand, by my reckoning).
I did this partly because I have no shame. If things are going wrong at $100 buy-in, drop back down and rebuild. One of the reasons given against dropping back down is that you tend to call too loosely. But if you are calling too infrequently (a flaw I suspected that I had on Party because of the nature of the game on the IP network), then making looser calls may be no bad thing. It also gives me an opportunity to play around with ideas that might be a bit expensive if they go wrong at the higher level.
This one worked.
$50 NL Texas Hold'em -
Table Jackpot (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: destiny11112 ( $19.05 )
Seat 2: accrobate111 ( $49.25 )
Seat 3: Fishheads4u ( $47.70 )
Seat 4: Hero ( $48.84 )
Seat 5: chuli123 ( $96.39 )
Seat 6: swandom ( $27.27 )
Seat 7: sasa198306 ( $17.64 )
Seat 8: Joe_Bluffer ( $53.79 )
Seat 9: OoopSiDidYa ( $140.98 )
Seat 10: Villain ( $29.58 ) (no stats to speak of, but what I had indicated looseness, but not much aggression).
Hero posts small blind [$0.25 ].
chuli123 posts big blind [$0.50 ].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ K◊ K♣ ]
swandom folds.
sasa198306 calls [$0.50 ]
Joe_Bluffer folds.
OoopSiDidYa folds.
Villain raises [$2.50 ]
destiny11112 folds.
accrobate111 folds.
Fishheads4u folds.
Hero raises [$7.75 ]
It appears that at the lower level you can raise by higher amounts (proportionally) for the same effect. Obviously players are looser, but it would appear that the absolute value/relative value dichotomy also exists. People think “it’s $5, rather than “it’s a pot bet”. Given the size of opponent's stack, I'm not far from being committed here no matter what the flop is.
chuli123 folds.
sasa198306 folds.
Villain calls [$5.50 ]
$16 in pot
** Dealing Flop ** [ A♣, 9◊, 8♡ ]
Hero checks.
On IP this play is virtually pointless. All that you will be doing is giving a lower pair a chance to hit a two-outer when he checks behind. However, if you decide that you are calling an all-in bet from opponent, you potentially gain more from checking than from betting. Other factors on my mind here. His call of my reraise mitigates against AK, which often goes all-in pre-flop in this kind of situation. That makes a pair a fraction above 50%.
Villain is all-In for $21.58
I'm only considering folding if opponent bets something like $10 here. Less than that and it's likely an attempt to get the pot cheaply. Much more and it's quite possibly a value-shove or total bluff.
Hero calls [$21.58 ]
If opponent has a set of nines or a set of eights, he would often bet a smaller amount. Sure, some players might shove with the big hand. But some would bet small. However, the player with a lower pair than an Ace is likely to either check or shove at this level (on IP, the pair would check behind 99% of the time). With AQ or AJ, why shove? It’s a rainbow board as well. This looks like the classic “I have an Ace” bet from a player who doesnn’t realize that, if he actually had an Ace, he would not be shoving.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2◊ ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4♡ ]
Hero shows [ K◊, K♣ ]a pair of Kings.
Villain doesn't show [ T♡, T♣ ]a pair of Tens.
Hero wins $56.66 from the main pot with a pair of Kings.
++++++++++++
Ticket for Speed The Plow at the Old Vic with Kevin Spacey and Jeff Goldblum arrived this morning. Yum Yum. Gold dust for good seats.
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
No shame?
Date: 2008-02-16 07:25 pm (UTC)I like your reasoning in the kings hand and I would call quite often in this kind of spot. The ace would actually give me some pause though, if instead the flop came k-high and I had queens for example no hesitation at all. I can't really imagine why a certain kind of opponent views the all-in bet as a decent plan here, personally I'm checking with AK I'd say around 80% of the time on that board.
Since it's not that easy to search for this specific type of situation I'm just going by memory, but although I agree with your play I've recently lost more than in these spots than I've won. I must have had the misfortune to be against foes who simply think, 'top pair, stick 'em all in!' and I've just outwitted myself by crediting them with some (limited) imagination.
I find the third alternative unlikely: do we really think that the average player in the $50 - $200 buyin levels is capable of repping a bluff on a board with no flush draw?
Mattito.
no subject
Date: 2008-02-17 04:24 am (UTC)What episode are have you gotten to on the Wire? Ive watched up to Episode 7 of Season 5. It makes me very sad to think that shortly I will never again watch a new episode.
no subject
Date: 2008-02-17 09:58 am (UTC)On The Wire, I am up to Episode 9, Series 3. White mayor-to-be is just getting his act together, while Avon is increasingly looking like yesterday's man in the new corporatised drug culture. Marlo is on the up, Stringer is frustrated with bureaucracy. A guy at work is renting each episode from Amazon, although Series two, first disc, took too long, so I went out and bought the series.
On the KK hand, you must take some of the credit for this. I thought of your "use opponent's aggression" line as well as Matt's mantra of "giving opponents the chance to make a mistake". If I bet here, I give my opponent virtually no chance to make a mistake. If I check, he might make a mistake. The question is, how likely is it? If it's very unlikely, then betting is better than checking.
If opponent bets v small here I'll probably check-raise enough for me to get away from the hand if he then goes all-in. If opponent bets about a third of his stack, that's usually the classic "suck-em-in" bet size, and I guess I walk away.
PJ
no subject
Date: 2008-02-19 03:55 am (UTC)