One Flu in The Birks Nest
Nov. 2nd, 2008 02:10 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksAs the good Doctor Channing would doubtless testify, since he seems to be suffering at the moment as well, having the 'flu is no fun. And there's no sick pay for poker players. and it's no good "dragging yourself into work", because, if you feel like shit, you are likely to lose.
It's a bit of a bummer getting it just as the weekend is starting, but, on the plus side, it does mean that I can maintain what's now somehwere close to four years without a day off sick.
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One of my flaws in calling market moves is that things which I think are already discounted by the market (because everyone knows about them and they are public knowledge), turn out not to be discounted at all. One example of this was the company Senior, in which I've got a lumpyish holding (for me).
Senior, a British success story in the aviation manufacturing sector, was one of my stellar stocks. I bought at 50p many years ago and bought again at 25p in the depths of the early 2003 slump. Over the years this holding looked ever nicer as the share price rose to 120p. I sold half my stock at 85p (on the way up) and have kept the rest.
Senior was doing fine until the beginning of last month, when it plummeted. It suffered not just from the widespread selling, but also from its announcement that the Boeing strike would not affect it unless it lasted beyond mid-November. Since the strike at that time showed no signs of ending, Senior's stock went into a minor freefall, down to about 37p at one point.
Then last weekend, the strike was settled. I awaited the share bounce, but what little came was muted and roughly in line with last week's minor recovery. This puzzled me somewhat. Perhaps it wasn't the strike that had hit the price?
But, lo and behold, on Friday it appears that the London market spotted that the strike was over, and the share price zoomed, so that it's now at about 160% of its low price and 150% of its price when the strike was settled. Although I'm obviously happy that my existing holding has gone up in value, I still see it as a missed opportunity to make a bit of cash.
And I'm promptly going to miss another one. I think that this week will be bad for the markets. For a start, we are going to learn exactly (well, maybe not exactly, let's say "partially") in what kind of shit HBoS finds itself. And it's going to be horrible. Five billion quid or something. More than even Durrr could win in an evening at $1000/$2000, that's for sure.
Now I know this. I assume the market knows this. But I bet you that when HBoS says it, the markets will react downwards.
Given that much of last week was a tedhnical correction, the outlook for the first half of November is grim indeed.
So, whay don't I just sell all of my stocks, short what I'm allowed to short, and rake in the money?
Lazinesss, pure fucking laziness. I've never been a short-term stock trader, and I'm too old to start now.
_________________
It's a bit of a bummer getting it just as the weekend is starting, but, on the plus side, it does mean that I can maintain what's now somehwere close to four years without a day off sick.
+++++++
One of my flaws in calling market moves is that things which I think are already discounted by the market (because everyone knows about them and they are public knowledge), turn out not to be discounted at all. One example of this was the company Senior, in which I've got a lumpyish holding (for me).
Senior, a British success story in the aviation manufacturing sector, was one of my stellar stocks. I bought at 50p many years ago and bought again at 25p in the depths of the early 2003 slump. Over the years this holding looked ever nicer as the share price rose to 120p. I sold half my stock at 85p (on the way up) and have kept the rest.
Senior was doing fine until the beginning of last month, when it plummeted. It suffered not just from the widespread selling, but also from its announcement that the Boeing strike would not affect it unless it lasted beyond mid-November. Since the strike at that time showed no signs of ending, Senior's stock went into a minor freefall, down to about 37p at one point.
Then last weekend, the strike was settled. I awaited the share bounce, but what little came was muted and roughly in line with last week's minor recovery. This puzzled me somewhat. Perhaps it wasn't the strike that had hit the price?
But, lo and behold, on Friday it appears that the London market spotted that the strike was over, and the share price zoomed, so that it's now at about 160% of its low price and 150% of its price when the strike was settled. Although I'm obviously happy that my existing holding has gone up in value, I still see it as a missed opportunity to make a bit of cash.
And I'm promptly going to miss another one. I think that this week will be bad for the markets. For a start, we are going to learn exactly (well, maybe not exactly, let's say "partially") in what kind of shit HBoS finds itself. And it's going to be horrible. Five billion quid or something. More than even Durrr could win in an evening at $1000/$2000, that's for sure.
Now I know this. I assume the market knows this. But I bet you that when HBoS says it, the markets will react downwards.
Given that much of last week was a tedhnical correction, the outlook for the first half of November is grim indeed.
So, whay don't I just sell all of my stocks, short what I'm allowed to short, and rake in the money?
Lazinesss, pure fucking laziness. I've never been a short-term stock trader, and I'm too old to start now.
_________________
