2008 Poker Round Up
Dec. 31st, 2008 08:22 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksFirst, the hard figures:
Hours Played
Hands Played
Last year I played 158,000 hands in 883 hours, so this year I've played an extra 60,000 hands (40% more) in an extra 120 hours (13% more).
Last year's hourly rate was $10.86, while the win rate per 100 hands was $6.07.
This year the hourly rate has been $16.65, with a win rate per 100 hands of $7.67.
At the start of the year I targeted a win of between $12K and $15K and a win rate of (I think) between $13 and $15. I exceeded both of those targets.
However, the devastating performance was in the last four months of the year, where I never won less than $2,000 per month and I clocked up about $10K profit at a rate of between $25 and $30 an hour.
There's little doubt that I ran well here. Although HoldEm Manager's All-In EV chart has weaknesses (the major ones being that if you get 98% of opponent's money in when he is a big underdog, but then pay him off for the final 2% when he hits his one-outer, it looks as if you made a bad call, and, of course, that it ignores non-showdown hands), it's a fair guide to how well you have been running.
I ran well on NoIQ (despite the abysmal performance) and on Pacific, while I ran badly on Party. The others were in line with expectations.
As you can see, it all kicked off from when I got back from holiday in August. After a very damp time from end-March to end-May, I decided to do a bit of rebuilding -- three-tabling at $50, not worrying about any deposit bonuses. Just focusing on winning at the tables. This did me a lot of good.
I've left off the $50 line, but it can be easily deduced from the total and the $100 line.
My standard deviation at $100NL thus far is $97 an hour with a win rate of $10.62 an hour. Rakeback and bonuses probably boost this to something like $14.50 an hour.
Lessons learnt from the year? I think that the main four have been:
1) Different sites and different levels play very differently. The more you play, the more you are in tune with how other players tend to play (the 'default" style for a site, a stake level) and you can exploit this. Playing the same way at all sites is detrimental to your earnings.
2) The conventional wisdom is often wrong.
3) Specialization is vital these days. You can't be an all-rounder any more.
4) Forget about bringing your live game to the online game or vice-versa. The games have moved further apart this year than ever. However, this is less true as you move up the levels, where single-tabling is more frequent and the player pool is smaller.
++++++++
No specific targets yet for 2009. I think that I would be happy to maintain this year's win level, which is a significant jump from earlier performances. My long-term aim remains an average 20% increase in earnings per annum, and this year's 80% jump is probably a bit of an outlier. The performance of the last four months of the year (equal to $30K a year) is unsustainable at $100 NL.
Many will expecting the games to get tougher next year, but recessions are funny things. Suddenly you get a large number of people with time on their hands and money in their pockets (see "payoffs"). Many of these will have worked in the financial sector and will have played poker socially or online at weekends (they may even be winners). Suddenly they will decide to try to make a bit of money playing more often.
And, of course, they will get slaughtered.
So, I'm not that pessimistic about the games. I think that expansion into virgin teritories and a new player base in the UK will be good news.
________________
| SITE | BONUS | $50 | $100 | FREEROLL | $200 | RAKEBACK | $400 | $5 HU | $10 HU | $20 HU | Grand Total |
| PTY | $974 | $950 | $147 | --- | -$336 | $280 | --- | --- | --- | --- | $2,013 |
| FTP | $640 | -$142 | --- | $26 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | $525 |
| NO_IQ | $94 | -$231 | -$170 | --- | -$84 | $1,063 | --- | $6 | $8 | -$37 | $649 |
| BetFred | $1,805 | $17 | $1,506 | $112 | $873 | --- | $7 | --- | --- | --- | $4,319 |
| Stars | $360 | $43 | -$145 | --- | $169 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | $428 |
| Pacific | $157 | $221 | $7,315 | --- | $234 | $466 | $351 | --- | --- | --- | $8,743 |
| Grand Total | $4,030 | $857 | $8,652 | $138 | $856 | $1,809 | $358 | $6 | $8 | -$37 | $16,677 |
Hours Played
| SITE | BONUS | $50 | $100 | FREEROLL | $200 | RAKEBACK | $400 | $5 | $10 | $20 | Grand Total |
| PTY | 0 | 81 | 139 | --- | 12 | 1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | 233 |
| FTP | 0 | 7 | --- | 1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | 8 |
| NO_IQ | 0 | 36 | 112 | --- | 40 | 0 | --- | 0 | 3 | 1 | 192 |
| BetFred | 0 | 28 | 155 | 3 | 22 | --- | 0 | --- | --- | --- | 209 |
| Stars | 0 | 33 | 70 | --- | 3 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | 106 |
| Pacific | 0 | 26 | 219 | --- | 8 | 0 | 1 | --- | --- | --- | 254 |
| Grand Total | 0 | 210 | 695 | 4 | 85 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1,002 |
Hands Played
| SITE | BONUS | $50 | $100 | FREEROLL | $200 | RAKEBACK | $400 | $5 | $10 | $20 | Grand Total |
| PTY | 0 | 18,372 | 34,657 | --- | 2,664 | 0 | --- | --- | --- | --- | 55,693 |
| FTP | 0 | 2,558 | --- | 100 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | 2,658 |
| NO_IQ | 0 | 7,250 | 24,886 | --- | 8,615 | 0 | --- | 80 | 627 | 223 | 41,681 |
| BetFred | 0 | 5,886 | 34,554 | 300 | 5,381 | --- | 5 | --- | --- | --- | 46,126 |
| Stars | 0 | 6,649 | 14,740 | --- | 622 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | 22,011 |
| Pacific | 0 | 4,211 | 43,603 | --- | 1,177 | 0 | 265 | --- | --- | --- | 49,256 |
| Grand Total | 0 | 44,926 | 152,440 | 400 | 18,459 | 0 | 270 | 80 | 627 | 223 | 217,425 |
Last year I played 158,000 hands in 883 hours, so this year I've played an extra 60,000 hands (40% more) in an extra 120 hours (13% more).
Last year's hourly rate was $10.86, while the win rate per 100 hands was $6.07.
This year the hourly rate has been $16.65, with a win rate per 100 hands of $7.67.
At the start of the year I targeted a win of between $12K and $15K and a win rate of (I think) between $13 and $15. I exceeded both of those targets.
However, the devastating performance was in the last four months of the year, where I never won less than $2,000 per month and I clocked up about $10K profit at a rate of between $25 and $30 an hour.
There's little doubt that I ran well here. Although HoldEm Manager's All-In EV chart has weaknesses (the major ones being that if you get 98% of opponent's money in when he is a big underdog, but then pay him off for the final 2% when he hits his one-outer, it looks as if you made a bad call, and, of course, that it ignores non-showdown hands), it's a fair guide to how well you have been running.
I ran well on NoIQ (despite the abysmal performance) and on Pacific, while I ran badly on Party. The others were in line with expectations.
As you can see, it all kicked off from when I got back from holiday in August. After a very damp time from end-March to end-May, I decided to do a bit of rebuilding -- three-tabling at $50, not worrying about any deposit bonuses. Just focusing on winning at the tables. This did me a lot of good.
I've left off the $50 line, but it can be easily deduced from the total and the $100 line.
My standard deviation at $100NL thus far is $97 an hour with a win rate of $10.62 an hour. Rakeback and bonuses probably boost this to something like $14.50 an hour.
Lessons learnt from the year? I think that the main four have been:
1) Different sites and different levels play very differently. The more you play, the more you are in tune with how other players tend to play (the 'default" style for a site, a stake level) and you can exploit this. Playing the same way at all sites is detrimental to your earnings.
2) The conventional wisdom is often wrong.
3) Specialization is vital these days. You can't be an all-rounder any more.
4) Forget about bringing your live game to the online game or vice-versa. The games have moved further apart this year than ever. However, this is less true as you move up the levels, where single-tabling is more frequent and the player pool is smaller.
++++++++
No specific targets yet for 2009. I think that I would be happy to maintain this year's win level, which is a significant jump from earlier performances. My long-term aim remains an average 20% increase in earnings per annum, and this year's 80% jump is probably a bit of an outlier. The performance of the last four months of the year (equal to $30K a year) is unsustainable at $100 NL.
Many will expecting the games to get tougher next year, but recessions are funny things. Suddenly you get a large number of people with time on their hands and money in their pockets (see "payoffs"). Many of these will have worked in the financial sector and will have played poker socially or online at weekends (they may even be winners). Suddenly they will decide to try to make a bit of money playing more often.
And, of course, they will get slaughtered.
So, I'm not that pessimistic about the games. I think that expansion into virgin teritories and a new player base in the UK will be good news.
________________
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no subject
Date: 2009-01-02 02:43 pm (UTC)Your decision to target a similar level of performance to 2008 makes lots of sense; 2009 might be to 2008 as 2006 was to 2005 and you'd still be up $12k for the year - possibly a disappointing result, but still a very handy sum. When the time comes to set yourself a higher target (2010?), how do you envision changing your play in order to meet it?
a) Do you envision taking on multi-tabling with more tables?
b) What sort of progress do you need in order for your bankroll to permit you to move to a higher limit?
c) Do you envision spending more or less time playing poker? You averaged close to three hours a day in 2009, which is a pretty hefty chunk of your leisure time.
A couple of other questions, if you would indulge me. Do you feel you're getting better at either the cardplay or the game selection? I remember that in previous years you've been able to quote a figure for progress in terms of BB per hundred hands; it took me a while to work out that the reason why you didn't quote that is that the concept of BB in no-limit poker probably applies differently...
It's very interesting to see how the various sites compared in terms of bonus and rakeback, particularly in terms of rates of bonus and rakeback per hour spent on each site. Do you have a strategy for maximising these? What's the outlook for 2009 in these regards?
Questions
Date: 2009-01-02 02:55 pm (UTC)I'll try to answer them piecemeal, because to do otherwise would make for a mega-post all of its own>
1) Do I envision multi-tabling with more tables?
A) Although I can five-table on most sites and six-table with a bit of concentration, all that this does is compress the same number of hands into a rather less enjoyable time (because it's more like hard work) before I begin to tire. I think that 500 hands is my maximum before I need a break. In addition, my EV of 600 hands in two hours of six-tabling is less than 600 hands in three hours of four-tabling. So, I intend to reserve six-tabling for short bursts when I am under time pressure elsewhere or when I want to clear a bonus.
2) "What sort of progress do you need in order for your bankroll to permit you to move to a higher limit?"
A) I've currently got more than $20K "in play" (this includes Neteller but excludes my US bank accounts). This would support a $400 NL Buy In level if I was in the mood. I'm sure that most players would see it as supporting a $600 or even $1000 Buy In Level. The nutters would go for $2000 or $5000 Buy Ins. Meanwhile, BlueScouse would be sitting straight in at $100-$200 NL. However, at the moment I feel so "in the zone" at $100 Buy In, a move up would be an investment for the long term rather than an expectation of fast rewards.
3) "Do you envision spending more or less time playing poker"?
A) Given the collapse of my current (or should that be ex-) emotional relationship, I might well spend more time playing poker! However, I may play some live games in order to mainatin social contact with the rest of the world.
More later.
PJ
Re: Questions
Date: 2009-01-02 03:10 pm (UTC)Am I getting better at table selection or cardplay?
A) I certainly move around a bit more than I used to -- quitting games that are dire and trying new ones where I have reached the top of the waiting list. But, to be honest, finding a good table is usually a matter of luck, because the second a live one appears, the waiting list is a mile long. The important thing is to stay there as long as the live one is still around. At ttimes this means you have to play into your "tired zone" and here you have to be careful. If the live one is so bad that all you have to do is stay awake, then, fine, carry on. But in most cases the donator as some skill. You don't want to tire yourself to the level where you make bad decisions.
2) Do I have a strategy for maximizing bonuses?
A) I still take the Stars and Party bonuses when they are offered, mainly because these are the two sites thhat I use to take out cheques. But I haven't exploited a "new deposit" bonus since the first half of last year. The best rakeback is on IP Network, but the games got so bad that playing there would only have been worthwhile as a 12-tabling short-stacked faux bot. Most play is now on Pacific, Party and Stars. Party games are getting better and Pacific games are getting worse. The Stars bonus is a bit of an insult, but, like I say, it's nice to keep my hand in at several sites, else you risk falling into the "can only beat one kind of game" trap.
PJ