A PLO hand
Jun. 25th, 2005 12:41 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksOh well, here's a PLO hand that I won (a rarity in itself at the moment). It worked out okay, but at the time I was not sure that I was doing the right thing.
Birks is at seat 0 with $49.
dudelbwski is at seat 1 with $24.30.
mystiko is at seat 3 with $38.30.
LFS1 is at seat 4 with $48.35.
dtydad is at seat 6 with $11.50.
coldeeze is at seat 7 with $103.45.
Cornier is at seat 8 with $46.50.
pokernanny is at seat 9 with $9.25.
The button is at seat 9.
Birks posts the small blind of $.25.
dudelbwski posts the big blind of $.50.
Birks: As 4s 5h 7d
mystiko folds. LFS1 calls. dtydad calls. coldeeze folds. Cornier folds. pokernanny calls. Birks calls. dudelbwski raises to $3. LFS1 folds. dtydad calls. pokernanny calls. Birks calls.
The big blind raiser has been doing this quite a lot. He was also not that strong a player (indeed, later he would go broke, but not to me!) I probably shouldn't call this pre-flop raise. Perhaps the same ranks of cards, but double-suited, or something like A456. But really this is a little bit weak. The first signs of tilt at getting so little to play for an hour or so? Perhaps. In fact, after this hand, I settled down again.
Flop 8c Jh 3d
This isn't any kind of flop for me, and I'm quite happy to fold to a 50 cent bet. Except that it doesn't come.
Birks checks. dudelbwski checks. dtydad checks. pokernanny checks.
Turn 8c Jh 3d 6s
And, out of pig's ears do silk purses come. I know that this is a pretty good wrap. The check-round on the flop seems to indicate no sets, unless someone has just hit their sixes. And it's the kind of board where people find it hard to resist trying a "steal". There's no flush danger, so if I hit my hand on the river, I may well get called for a reasonably sized bet. Alternatively, I would be quite happy to take down the pot now.
Birks checks. dudelbwski bets $.50. dtydad calls. pokernanny calls.
I think that this confirms that there is no set out there. I think that the most I am up against is two pairs. I'm not sure of my equity against a single opponent with two-pairs, but I reckon that it's pretty good, especially since I might be able to force a laydown with a raise.
Birks raises to $15. dudelbwski folds. dtydad folds. pokernanny folds. Birks is returned $14.50 (uncalled).
$.70 is raked from a pot of $14.50.
Birks wins $13.80.
So, let's assume my opponents have 2-pair twice and a ropey drawing hand once. If they put me on a set of sixes, it's hard for them to call this bet. But, this is low-limit and you do get some truly dreadful calls. Let's put my calling opponent (if he had called) on AJT8. What's my equity on this "super wrap"?
Turns out that I'm 42.5% to 57.5% dog.
Does that make my raise wrong? Should I just flat-call for the superb equity that I am getting to 50 cents?
Well, it all comes down to psychology. If there is NO chance that I will win this pot uncontested, and if it is 100% certain that one of my opponents has 2-pair, then, yes, a call is the correct bet. Assuming that I bet $3 on the river if I hit, and this is always called (I could apply different numbers here, such as a $6 bet that is called half the time, or a pot bet that is called 20% of the time -- they all generate the same $3 river return( then we have an expected return of:
-50c 57.5% of the time (= minus .29)
$15 + $3 42.5% of the time (=$7.65)
for an EV of $7.36.
If I raise $15 and am called, we now have $45 in the pot. Let's assume that I bet $8 into this if I hit and am called 100% of the time (equal to a pot bet being called about 15% of the time).
That gives us -$15 57.5% of the time (= - $8.62)
and +$38 42.5% of the time (= +16.15)
for an EV of $7.53.
That's close enough to say "it makes no difference". If we assume that the chance that I have horribly misread the hand and that I am far worse off than I thought cancels out with the chance that I am called by a pile of shit, then ANY chance that I take down the pot uncontested raises the latter EV into a seriously positive edge.
Suppose I think there is only a 25% chance that all the opponents will fold (my own estimate was closer to 60%)
That gives the second play an EV of:
+$15 25% of the time = $3.75
-$15 43% of the time = -$6.49
+$38 32% of the time = $12.16
for a total EV of $9.42.
This is not just a PLO point, it's a technique used time and again by Ulliott, Brunson, Cloutier and Negreanu. There only needs to be a small chance that your opponent will meekly lie down and die for the raise in this situation to be mathematically correct.
Birks is at seat 0 with $49.
dudelbwski is at seat 1 with $24.30.
mystiko is at seat 3 with $38.30.
LFS1 is at seat 4 with $48.35.
dtydad is at seat 6 with $11.50.
coldeeze is at seat 7 with $103.45.
Cornier is at seat 8 with $46.50.
pokernanny is at seat 9 with $9.25.
The button is at seat 9.
Birks posts the small blind of $.25.
dudelbwski posts the big blind of $.50.
Birks: As 4s 5h 7d
mystiko folds. LFS1 calls. dtydad calls. coldeeze folds. Cornier folds. pokernanny calls. Birks calls. dudelbwski raises to $3. LFS1 folds. dtydad calls. pokernanny calls. Birks calls.
The big blind raiser has been doing this quite a lot. He was also not that strong a player (indeed, later he would go broke, but not to me!) I probably shouldn't call this pre-flop raise. Perhaps the same ranks of cards, but double-suited, or something like A456. But really this is a little bit weak. The first signs of tilt at getting so little to play for an hour or so? Perhaps. In fact, after this hand, I settled down again.
Flop 8c Jh 3d
This isn't any kind of flop for me, and I'm quite happy to fold to a 50 cent bet. Except that it doesn't come.
Birks checks. dudelbwski checks. dtydad checks. pokernanny checks.
Turn 8c Jh 3d 6s
And, out of pig's ears do silk purses come. I know that this is a pretty good wrap. The check-round on the flop seems to indicate no sets, unless someone has just hit their sixes. And it's the kind of board where people find it hard to resist trying a "steal". There's no flush danger, so if I hit my hand on the river, I may well get called for a reasonably sized bet. Alternatively, I would be quite happy to take down the pot now.
Birks checks. dudelbwski bets $.50. dtydad calls. pokernanny calls.
I think that this confirms that there is no set out there. I think that the most I am up against is two pairs. I'm not sure of my equity against a single opponent with two-pairs, but I reckon that it's pretty good, especially since I might be able to force a laydown with a raise.
Birks raises to $15. dudelbwski folds. dtydad folds. pokernanny folds. Birks is returned $14.50 (uncalled).
$.70 is raked from a pot of $14.50.
Birks wins $13.80.
So, let's assume my opponents have 2-pair twice and a ropey drawing hand once. If they put me on a set of sixes, it's hard for them to call this bet. But, this is low-limit and you do get some truly dreadful calls. Let's put my calling opponent (if he had called) on AJT8. What's my equity on this "super wrap"?
Turns out that I'm 42.5% to 57.5% dog.
Does that make my raise wrong? Should I just flat-call for the superb equity that I am getting to 50 cents?
Well, it all comes down to psychology. If there is NO chance that I will win this pot uncontested, and if it is 100% certain that one of my opponents has 2-pair, then, yes, a call is the correct bet. Assuming that I bet $3 on the river if I hit, and this is always called (I could apply different numbers here, such as a $6 bet that is called half the time, or a pot bet that is called 20% of the time -- they all generate the same $3 river return( then we have an expected return of:
-50c 57.5% of the time (= minus .29)
$15 + $3 42.5% of the time (=$7.65)
for an EV of $7.36.
If I raise $15 and am called, we now have $45 in the pot. Let's assume that I bet $8 into this if I hit and am called 100% of the time (equal to a pot bet being called about 15% of the time).
That gives us -$15 57.5% of the time (= - $8.62)
and +$38 42.5% of the time (= +16.15)
for an EV of $7.53.
That's close enough to say "it makes no difference". If we assume that the chance that I have horribly misread the hand and that I am far worse off than I thought cancels out with the chance that I am called by a pile of shit, then ANY chance that I take down the pot uncontested raises the latter EV into a seriously positive edge.
Suppose I think there is only a 25% chance that all the opponents will fold (my own estimate was closer to 60%)
That gives the second play an EV of:
+$15 25% of the time = $3.75
-$15 43% of the time = -$6.49
+$38 32% of the time = $12.16
for a total EV of $9.42.
This is not just a PLO point, it's a technique used time and again by Ulliott, Brunson, Cloutier and Negreanu. There only needs to be a small chance that your opponent will meekly lie down and die for the raise in this situation to be mathematically correct.
