Mental management
May. 29th, 2010 11:29 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksI often wonder why, after a fairly hefty loss, such as I had this morning, I get so disturbed. After all, my stockholdings have gone down by far more over the past few weeks. The actual loss in absolute terms ($695) is not that significant in the grand scheme of things.
So why the feeling of disturbance?
The answer, I think, lies in, not what has just happened, but what I fear it might portend for the future. And this, unfortunately, is not an irrational fear. The facts remain:
1) Most poker players are losers above and beyond the rake they pay
2) The vast majority of poker players are either in the above group, or win less than the rake they pay, thus ending up net losers.
3) An even vaster majority include the above groups and a group that just about cover their rake and make a profit only from rakeback
That leaves (4), a very small group that wins money from rakeback and from "at the table" play.
To which we add:
5) The games are getting tougher all the time.
Any poker player not blinded by the self-deception of arrogant youth is perfectly aware that one day he will stop being a significant winner. True, there is a small small chance that this will turn out not to be true. He may carry on winning until the day he dies. But most will stop being winners. There's a long long list of bloggers and "pro" poker players from the early 2000s on who are no longer big winners. Some have held on to much of what they won. Many have spunked it away. But they aren't winning it now.
It's in the face of this inevitability of eventual failure that I look at every minor setback. Not what it signifies in and of itself, but what it might signify for the future.
In addition, I was slightly annoyed at myself. Firstly, I went back up to $1-$2 NL on Stars, even though I had banned myself from this level until I accumulated 20 buy-ins of wins at 50c-$1 NL. I went back up because, quite simply, I had to if I was going to maintain supernova status this month. This is an old mistake of mine, one which I have written about before, where I let the tail wag the dog. Unfortunately the marketing meisters at Pokerstars know exactly how big an incentive to set to make the player concerned (me) move up to a higher level.
Secondly, I made an old old mistake of mine, which was to beecome too much of a calling station in the early morning. Hands that I would fold during the tight-fests of a Wednesday afternoon, I reshove all-in with in the looser games of Saturday monring. But I over-compensate. The games are looser, but not that much looser. And the overshove from an opponent, even one who is slightly short-stacked, is not a desperate bluff from an American who has been up all night. It's the nuts.
So, I lost five all-ins (probably a record for me in two hours) and won two.
But, when I thought about it, I decided that, although I could marginally criticize my own play, if they had gone right, I would have been saying "brilliant".
Below are the four losing all ins from the second half of the session:
PokerStars Game #44764380854: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/05/29 3:29:05 ET
Table 'Parysatis II' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: sammyg11 ($390.20 in chips)
Seat 2: schwarmann ($217.85 in chips)
Seat 4: Masterfrank ($230.85 in chips)
Seat 5: TheLife ($207.55 in chips)
Seat 6: redacesfull ($374.55 in chips)
Seat 7: Chiren80 ($203 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero ($203 in chips)
Masterfrank: posts small blind $1
TheLife: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [T♡; T◊;]
redacesfull: folds
Chiren80: raises $3.10 to $5.10
Hero: calls $5.10
sammyg11: folds
schwarmann: folds
Masterfrank: folds
TheLife: folds
*** FLOP *** [4♡; T♠ K♡;]
Chiren80: bets $9.40
Hero: raises $9.40 to $18.80
Chiren80: calls $9.40
*** TURN *** [4♡; T♠ K♡;] [7♡;]
Chiren80: checks
Free-Cash-PS joins the table at seat #9
Hero: bets $38
Chiren80: raises $141.10 to $179.10 and is all-in
Hero: calls $141.10 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [4♡; T♠ K♡; 7♡;] [3♣;]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Chiren80: shows [Q♡; A♡;] (a flush, Ace high)
Hero: shows [T♡; T◊;] (three of a kind, Tens)
Chiren80 collected $406 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $409 | Rake $3
Board [4♡; T♠ K♡; 7♡; 3♣;]
Seat 1: sammyg11 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: schwarmann (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Masterfrank (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: TheLife (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: redacesfull folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Chiren80 showed [Q♡; A♡;] and won ($406) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 8: Hero showed [T♡; T◊;] and lost with three of a kind, Tens
With backward narrative, it's obvious. But I've seen this bet in the past from good players where they have the singleton Ace to the flush draw and just top pair. But this player isn't good enough or tricky enough for that. He's an ABC $1-$2 nit.
PokerStars Game #44764559183: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/05/29 3:38:55 ET
Table 'Sahlia V' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh ($200 in chips)
Seat 2: TheLife ($209.30 in chips)
Seat 3: Masterfrank ($342.30 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($394 in chips)
Seat 5: TYJohnRambo ($101 in chips)
Seat 6: chiarascurro ($58.85 in chips)
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS ($511.60 in chips)
Seat 8: bloodlust07 ($212.60 in chips)
Seat 9: Technobabble ($200 in chips)
TYJohnRambo: posts small blind $1
chiarascurro: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [T♣; T♡;]
Free-Cash-PS: raises $4 to $6
bloodlust07: folds
Technobabble: folds
Tae Joon Noh: folds
TheLife: folds
Masterfrank: folds
Hero: calls $6
TYJohnRambo: folds
chiarascurro: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [7◊; 8♣; 8◊;]
chiarascurro: checks
Free-Cash-PS: checks
Hero: bets $12
chiarascurro: raises $40.85 to $52.85 and is all-in
Free-Cash-PS: folds
Hero: calls $40.85
*** TURN *** [7◊; 8♣; 8◊;] [A♣;]
*** RIVER *** [7◊; 8♣; 8◊; A♣;] [6♣;]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
chiarascurro: shows [8♠ A♡;] (a full house, Eights full of Aces)
Hero: shows [T♣; T♡;] (two pair, Tens and Eights)
chiarascurro collected $121.70 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $124.70 | Rake $3
Board [7◊; 8♣; 8◊; A♣; 6♣;]
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: TheLife folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Masterfrank folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hero (button) showed [T♣; T♡;] and lost with two pair, Tens and Eights
Seat 5: TYJohnRambo (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: chiarascurro (big blind) showed [8♠ A♡;] and won ($121.70) with a full house, Eights full of Aces
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS folded on the Flop
Seat 8: bloodlust07 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Technobabble folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Not good play by me above. Not good at all. Shortness of opponent's stack threw me and I was definitely tilting slightly.
PokerStars Game #44764126118: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/05/29 3:14:29 ET
Table 'Sahlia V' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh ($204 in chips)
Seat 2: TheLife ($203 in chips)
Seat 3: Masterfrank ($342.30 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($197 in chips)
Seat 5: redacesfull ($240.65 in chips)
Seat 6: chiarascurro ($62.85 in chips)
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS ($424.35 in chips)
Seat 8: Marhash ($68 in chips)
Seat 9: Technobabble ($200 in chips)
redacesfull: posts small blind $1
chiarascurro: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [A♣; K♡;]
Free-Cash-PS: folds
Marhash: folds
Technobabble: folds
Tae Joon Noh: folds
TheLife: folds
Masterfrank: folds
Hero: raises $4 to $6
redacesfull: raises $12 to $18
chiarascurro: folds
Hero: raises $179 to $197 and is all-in
redacesfull: calls $179
*** FLOP *** [6◊; 9♣; Q♡;]
*** TURN *** [6◊; 9♣; Q♡;] [8♣;]
*** RIVER *** [6◊; 9♣; Q♡; 8♣;] [J♡;]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
redacesfull: shows [A◊; A♡;] (a pair of Aces)
Hero: shows [A♣; K♡;] (high card Ace)
redacesfull collected $393 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $396 | Rake $3
Board [6◊; 9♣; Q♡; 8♣; J♡;]
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: TheLife folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Masterfrank folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hero (button) showed [A♣; K♡;] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 5: redacesfull (small blind) showed [A◊; A♡;] and won ($393) with a pair of Aces
Seat 6: chiarascurro (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Marhash folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Technobabble folded before Flop (didn't bet)
This looks odd, but if the blinds have a high reraising range against button "stealers" (which this guy has), the shove here is actually profitable. Indeed, overbet shoves preflop perform better than many people think, particularly when the ranges of both players are wide. FML that this time I happen to run into Aces :-).
PokerStars Game #44763985493: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/05/29 3:06:35 ET
Table 'Sahlia V' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh ($200 in chips)
Seat 2: TheLife ($205.40 in chips)
Seat 3: Masterfrank ($288.30 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($202.25 in chips)
Seat 5: redacesfull ($239.65 in chips)
Seat 6: chiarascurro ($63.85 in chips)
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS ($226.10 in chips)
Seat 8: Marhash ($68 in chips)
chiarascurro: posts small blind $1
Free-Cash-PS: posts big blind $2
Technobabble: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Q♡; Q♣;]
Marhash: folds
Tae Joon Noh: folds
TheLife: folds
Masterfrank: folds
Hero: raises $4 to $6
redacesfull: folds
chiarascurro: folds
Free-Cash-PS: raises $14 to $20
Hero: calls $14
*** FLOP *** [7◊; 7♣; 2♡;]
Free-Cash-PS: bets $29
Hero: calls $29
*** TURN *** [7◊; 7♣; 2♡;] [5◊;]
Free-Cash-PS: bets $48
Hero: raises $105.25 to $153.25 and is all-in
Free-Cash-PS: calls $105.25
*** RIVER *** [7◊; 7♣; 2♡; 5◊;] [A◊;]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Free-Cash-PS: shows [A♣; A♡;] (a full house, Aces full of Sevens)
Hero: mucks hand
Free-Cash-PS collected $402.50 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $405.50 | Rake $3
Board [7◊; 7♣; 2♡; 5◊; A◊;]
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: TheLife folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Masterfrank folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hero mucked [Q♡; Q♣;]
Seat 5: redacesfull (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: chiarascurro (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS (big blind) showed [A♣; A♡;] and won ($402.50) with a full house, Aces full of Sevens
Seat 8: Marhash folded before Flop (didn't bet)
I was annoyed at myself immediately after this hand, but, given opponent's range, it's only marginally bad. But I think there are other lines that a likely to be more profitable, by a few bucks. But I might have avoided (probably should have avoided) getting stacked off here).
Oh, and here's one that I won: With backward narrative, it's easy to say "so what", but the bet by me on the river was not at all easy.
**** Hand History for Game 44764145146 ***** (Poker Stars)
$200.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, May 29, 03:15:35 ET 2010
Table Sahlia V (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh ( $204.00 USD )
Seat 2: TheLife ( $203.00 USD )
Seat 3: Masterfrank ( $342.30 USD )
Seat 4: _PJB_ ( $200.00 USD )
Seat 5: redacesfull ( $436.65 USD )
Seat 6: chiarascurro ( $60.85 USD )
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS ( $424.35 USD )
Seat 8: Marhash ( $68.00 USD )
Seat 9: Technobabble ( $200.00 USD )
chiarascurro posts small blind [$1.00 USD].
Free-Cash-PS posts big blind [$2.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to _PJB_ [ Ah Ac ]
Marhash folds
Technobabble folds
Tae Joon Noh raises [$6.00 USD]
TheLife folds
Masterfrank folds
_PJB_ raises [$18.00 USD]
redacesfull folds
chiarascurro folds
Free-Cash-PS folds
Tae Joon Noh calls [$12.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jd, 8d, 3h ]
Tae Joon Noh checks
_PJB_ bets [$18.00 USD]
Tae Joon Noh calls [$18.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Td ]
Tae Joon Noh checks
_PJB_ bets [$70.00 USD]
Tae Joon Noh calls [$70.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 3s ]
Tae Joon Noh checks
_PJB_ bets [$94.00 USD]
Tae Joon Noh calls [$94.00 USD]
_PJB_ shows [Ah, Ac ]
Tae Joon Noh shows [Ks, Kc ]
_PJB_ wins $400.00 USD from main pot
So why the feeling of disturbance?
The answer, I think, lies in, not what has just happened, but what I fear it might portend for the future. And this, unfortunately, is not an irrational fear. The facts remain:
1) Most poker players are losers above and beyond the rake they pay
2) The vast majority of poker players are either in the above group, or win less than the rake they pay, thus ending up net losers.
3) An even vaster majority include the above groups and a group that just about cover their rake and make a profit only from rakeback
That leaves (4), a very small group that wins money from rakeback and from "at the table" play.
To which we add:
5) The games are getting tougher all the time.
Any poker player not blinded by the self-deception of arrogant youth is perfectly aware that one day he will stop being a significant winner. True, there is a small small chance that this will turn out not to be true. He may carry on winning until the day he dies. But most will stop being winners. There's a long long list of bloggers and "pro" poker players from the early 2000s on who are no longer big winners. Some have held on to much of what they won. Many have spunked it away. But they aren't winning it now.
It's in the face of this inevitability of eventual failure that I look at every minor setback. Not what it signifies in and of itself, but what it might signify for the future.
In addition, I was slightly annoyed at myself. Firstly, I went back up to $1-$2 NL on Stars, even though I had banned myself from this level until I accumulated 20 buy-ins of wins at 50c-$1 NL. I went back up because, quite simply, I had to if I was going to maintain supernova status this month. This is an old mistake of mine, one which I have written about before, where I let the tail wag the dog. Unfortunately the marketing meisters at Pokerstars know exactly how big an incentive to set to make the player concerned (me) move up to a higher level.
Secondly, I made an old old mistake of mine, which was to beecome too much of a calling station in the early morning. Hands that I would fold during the tight-fests of a Wednesday afternoon, I reshove all-in with in the looser games of Saturday monring. But I over-compensate. The games are looser, but not that much looser. And the overshove from an opponent, even one who is slightly short-stacked, is not a desperate bluff from an American who has been up all night. It's the nuts.
So, I lost five all-ins (probably a record for me in two hours) and won two.
But, when I thought about it, I decided that, although I could marginally criticize my own play, if they had gone right, I would have been saying "brilliant".
Below are the four losing all ins from the second half of the session:
PokerStars Game #44764380854: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/05/29 3:29:05 ET
Table 'Parysatis II' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: sammyg11 ($390.20 in chips)
Seat 2: schwarmann ($217.85 in chips)
Seat 4: Masterfrank ($230.85 in chips)
Seat 5: TheLife ($207.55 in chips)
Seat 6: redacesfull ($374.55 in chips)
Seat 7: Chiren80 ($203 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero ($203 in chips)
Masterfrank: posts small blind $1
TheLife: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [T♡; T◊;]
redacesfull: folds
Chiren80: raises $3.10 to $5.10
Hero: calls $5.10
sammyg11: folds
schwarmann: folds
Masterfrank: folds
TheLife: folds
*** FLOP *** [4♡; T♠ K♡;]
Chiren80: bets $9.40
Hero: raises $9.40 to $18.80
Chiren80: calls $9.40
*** TURN *** [4♡; T♠ K♡;] [7♡;]
Chiren80: checks
Free-Cash-PS joins the table at seat #9
Hero: bets $38
Chiren80: raises $141.10 to $179.10 and is all-in
Hero: calls $141.10 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [4♡; T♠ K♡; 7♡;] [3♣;]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Chiren80: shows [Q♡; A♡;] (a flush, Ace high)
Hero: shows [T♡; T◊;] (three of a kind, Tens)
Chiren80 collected $406 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $409 | Rake $3
Board [4♡; T♠ K♡; 7♡; 3♣;]
Seat 1: sammyg11 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: schwarmann (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Masterfrank (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: TheLife (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: redacesfull folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Chiren80 showed [Q♡; A♡;] and won ($406) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 8: Hero showed [T♡; T◊;] and lost with three of a kind, Tens
With backward narrative, it's obvious. But I've seen this bet in the past from good players where they have the singleton Ace to the flush draw and just top pair. But this player isn't good enough or tricky enough for that. He's an ABC $1-$2 nit.
PokerStars Game #44764559183: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/05/29 3:38:55 ET
Table 'Sahlia V' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh ($200 in chips)
Seat 2: TheLife ($209.30 in chips)
Seat 3: Masterfrank ($342.30 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($394 in chips)
Seat 5: TYJohnRambo ($101 in chips)
Seat 6: chiarascurro ($58.85 in chips)
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS ($511.60 in chips)
Seat 8: bloodlust07 ($212.60 in chips)
Seat 9: Technobabble ($200 in chips)
TYJohnRambo: posts small blind $1
chiarascurro: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [T♣; T♡;]
Free-Cash-PS: raises $4 to $6
bloodlust07: folds
Technobabble: folds
Tae Joon Noh: folds
TheLife: folds
Masterfrank: folds
Hero: calls $6
TYJohnRambo: folds
chiarascurro: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [7◊; 8♣; 8◊;]
chiarascurro: checks
Free-Cash-PS: checks
Hero: bets $12
chiarascurro: raises $40.85 to $52.85 and is all-in
Free-Cash-PS: folds
Hero: calls $40.85
*** TURN *** [7◊; 8♣; 8◊;] [A♣;]
*** RIVER *** [7◊; 8♣; 8◊; A♣;] [6♣;]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
chiarascurro: shows [8♠ A♡;] (a full house, Eights full of Aces)
Hero: shows [T♣; T♡;] (two pair, Tens and Eights)
chiarascurro collected $121.70 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $124.70 | Rake $3
Board [7◊; 8♣; 8◊; A♣; 6♣;]
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: TheLife folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Masterfrank folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hero (button) showed [T♣; T♡;] and lost with two pair, Tens and Eights
Seat 5: TYJohnRambo (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: chiarascurro (big blind) showed [8♠ A♡;] and won ($121.70) with a full house, Eights full of Aces
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS folded on the Flop
Seat 8: bloodlust07 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Technobabble folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Not good play by me above. Not good at all. Shortness of opponent's stack threw me and I was definitely tilting slightly.
PokerStars Game #44764126118: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/05/29 3:14:29 ET
Table 'Sahlia V' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh ($204 in chips)
Seat 2: TheLife ($203 in chips)
Seat 3: Masterfrank ($342.30 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($197 in chips)
Seat 5: redacesfull ($240.65 in chips)
Seat 6: chiarascurro ($62.85 in chips)
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS ($424.35 in chips)
Seat 8: Marhash ($68 in chips)
Seat 9: Technobabble ($200 in chips)
redacesfull: posts small blind $1
chiarascurro: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [A♣; K♡;]
Free-Cash-PS: folds
Marhash: folds
Technobabble: folds
Tae Joon Noh: folds
TheLife: folds
Masterfrank: folds
Hero: raises $4 to $6
redacesfull: raises $12 to $18
chiarascurro: folds
Hero: raises $179 to $197 and is all-in
redacesfull: calls $179
*** FLOP *** [6◊; 9♣; Q♡;]
*** TURN *** [6◊; 9♣; Q♡;] [8♣;]
*** RIVER *** [6◊; 9♣; Q♡; 8♣;] [J♡;]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
redacesfull: shows [A◊; A♡;] (a pair of Aces)
Hero: shows [A♣; K♡;] (high card Ace)
redacesfull collected $393 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $396 | Rake $3
Board [6◊; 9♣; Q♡; 8♣; J♡;]
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: TheLife folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Masterfrank folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hero (button) showed [A♣; K♡;] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 5: redacesfull (small blind) showed [A◊; A♡;] and won ($393) with a pair of Aces
Seat 6: chiarascurro (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Marhash folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Technobabble folded before Flop (didn't bet)
This looks odd, but if the blinds have a high reraising range against button "stealers" (which this guy has), the shove here is actually profitable. Indeed, overbet shoves preflop perform better than many people think, particularly when the ranges of both players are wide. FML that this time I happen to run into Aces :-).
PokerStars Game #44763985493: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/05/29 3:06:35 ET
Table 'Sahlia V' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh ($200 in chips)
Seat 2: TheLife ($205.40 in chips)
Seat 3: Masterfrank ($288.30 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($202.25 in chips)
Seat 5: redacesfull ($239.65 in chips)
Seat 6: chiarascurro ($63.85 in chips)
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS ($226.10 in chips)
Seat 8: Marhash ($68 in chips)
chiarascurro: posts small blind $1
Free-Cash-PS: posts big blind $2
Technobabble: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Q♡; Q♣;]
Marhash: folds
Tae Joon Noh: folds
TheLife: folds
Masterfrank: folds
Hero: raises $4 to $6
redacesfull: folds
chiarascurro: folds
Free-Cash-PS: raises $14 to $20
Hero: calls $14
*** FLOP *** [7◊; 7♣; 2♡;]
Free-Cash-PS: bets $29
Hero: calls $29
*** TURN *** [7◊; 7♣; 2♡;] [5◊;]
Free-Cash-PS: bets $48
Hero: raises $105.25 to $153.25 and is all-in
Free-Cash-PS: calls $105.25
*** RIVER *** [7◊; 7♣; 2♡; 5◊;] [A◊;]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Free-Cash-PS: shows [A♣; A♡;] (a full house, Aces full of Sevens)
Hero: mucks hand
Free-Cash-PS collected $402.50 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $405.50 | Rake $3
Board [7◊; 7♣; 2♡; 5◊; A◊;]
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: TheLife folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Masterfrank folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hero mucked [Q♡; Q♣;]
Seat 5: redacesfull (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: chiarascurro (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS (big blind) showed [A♣; A♡;] and won ($402.50) with a full house, Aces full of Sevens
Seat 8: Marhash folded before Flop (didn't bet)
I was annoyed at myself immediately after this hand, but, given opponent's range, it's only marginally bad. But I think there are other lines that a likely to be more profitable, by a few bucks. But I might have avoided (probably should have avoided) getting stacked off here).
Oh, and here's one that I won: With backward narrative, it's easy to say "so what", but the bet by me on the river was not at all easy.
**** Hand History for Game 44764145146 ***** (Poker Stars)
$200.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, May 29, 03:15:35 ET 2010
Table Sahlia V (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh ( $204.00 USD )
Seat 2: TheLife ( $203.00 USD )
Seat 3: Masterfrank ( $342.30 USD )
Seat 4: _PJB_ ( $200.00 USD )
Seat 5: redacesfull ( $436.65 USD )
Seat 6: chiarascurro ( $60.85 USD )
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS ( $424.35 USD )
Seat 8: Marhash ( $68.00 USD )
Seat 9: Technobabble ( $200.00 USD )
chiarascurro posts small blind [$1.00 USD].
Free-Cash-PS posts big blind [$2.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to _PJB_ [ Ah Ac ]
Marhash folds
Technobabble folds
Tae Joon Noh raises [$6.00 USD]
TheLife folds
Masterfrank folds
_PJB_ raises [$18.00 USD]
redacesfull folds
chiarascurro folds
Free-Cash-PS folds
Tae Joon Noh calls [$12.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jd, 8d, 3h ]
Tae Joon Noh checks
_PJB_ bets [$18.00 USD]
Tae Joon Noh calls [$18.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Td ]
Tae Joon Noh checks
_PJB_ bets [$70.00 USD]
Tae Joon Noh calls [$70.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 3s ]
Tae Joon Noh checks
_PJB_ bets [$94.00 USD]
Tae Joon Noh calls [$94.00 USD]
_PJB_ shows [Ah, Ac ]
Tae Joon Noh shows [Ks, Kc ]
_PJB_ wins $400.00 USD from main pot
no subject
Date: 2010-05-29 03:09 pm (UTC)The second TT hand you could also consider 3-betting pre and it would've probably got rid of A8 in the blind.
The AK 4-bet allin seems a ridiculous overbet but I'm prepared to accept it does "better than I think". Well I think it's spewy. However you then fail to 4-bet QQ when faced from a 3-bet from the blinds. Your theory seems inconsistent here. Why not shove the QQ too?
--- matt
no subject
Date: 2010-05-29 11:03 pm (UTC)I'm not a fan of three-betting early with TT, but that's more my style rather than dogmatism on my part. If I'm 8-tabling (which I was), I tend to stay in my comfort zone.
I don't use the overshove back with QQ in the CO because (a) being in the CO, my range is narrower -- therefore opponent's reraise is a narrower range, and (b) a reason I don't really want to go into, but I do have a reason that relates to the differences between AK and QQ.
However, I think my flat call is wrong, and I think I should 4-bet to something like $48, folding to a reraise.
Of course, this means that I sometimes have to reraise to $48 with AK, AA and KK, and sometimes have to shove with those hands, varying the percentages according to my holding to a degree I would obviously rather not reveal. I could include QQ in this reshove mix, I suppose, but it would be a lower percentage than the other three holdings.
Yeah, I should definitely have three-bet the TT preflop in that other hand, but that small stack in the blind usually either shoves or folds. I played that hand very badly, I admit.
On the first had .. yep, a mini raise there is not high enough. Or, if I do put in a miniraise, and the betting runs as it does, the odds marginally make a fold better, I think.
As you know, I have often argued that "making sure you do not give opponent implied odds" does not necessitate a big bet. You can also put in a small bet and then decline to pay opponent off if he hits (which is another way of declining to give him implied odds). But here I've given the implied odds, AND then I've paid him off. Not good. A bigger raise doesn't necessarily shout "I have a set" either.
But, what's the chance of Chiren having a flush draw? Not big (my guess, 1 in 7). And, if he has the flush draw, how often does he hit? (2 in 9). So this sequence only occurs about 3% of the time. Against AK (a more likely holding of his), a smaller reraise is fine. Against most other hands, it doesn't make any difference how much I reraise, because either he will fold or he has KK. So, there's backwards narrative at play here a bit. If he turns out to have AK (let's say it's a TV poker show and the commentator can see it) and I put in a pot reraise, then the commentator goes "why is he reraising so big, what hand can he be scared of? He's almost certainly well ahead well behind".
This is a very difficult area when judging raise sizes. Sometimes you are more likely to be WAWB, but there's a significant minority chance that you should make opponent pay for a draw. If it's a WAWB situation, you want to put in a small raise (or even flat call), whereas if it's a drawing situation, you want to put in a bigger raise.
no subject
Date: 2010-05-30 04:16 pm (UTC)Third leg
Date: 2010-05-31 02:51 pm (UTC)Keith S
Advice From a Fish
Date: 2010-06-01 05:11 pm (UTC)(Hand 1:) Stuff the backward narrative. You appear to be betting the player ("nit," and yes, I'm aware it's a technical term) not the cards. Not sure what a vanilla Chiren80 would do, but I'm pretty sure I'd be worried on the turn. Not sure what his original range is, either, but I don't see much value in calling your stack at that point.
(Hand 2:) Looks like a tilt to me.
(Hand 3:) From my incompetent perspective, that shove looks slightly weird. The stacks are about the same. redacesfull has a range that quite easily accommodates AKo, or maybe a high-value pair (K10 would be a bit of a pain, of course, but I'm not sure that's within range, or even whether it's worth bothering about). Overbet shoves preflop might well perform, but in this case I suspect that both your range and redacesfull's range are so incredibly wide that you're basically taking a spin on the roulette wheel.
(Hand 4:) Redolent of slight tiltiness, and I'll take your word for it that you probably should have avoided being stacked off. But I think the decision making is better than any of (1), (2) or (3).
All of which is largely irrelevant to my suggestion. It's mostly there for purposes of amusement.
My suggestion? Take some time off, and pretend you're an academic (which you are, amongst other things less reputable). Read a few poker books. Re-read a few poker books. I know you're not a software engineer, and why should you be? (It pays like shit, these days.) However: consider how you would program a computer -- if only you could -- to eight-table your game of choice.
Essentially, give yourself a break from being you.
If this works, btw, as your agent I'm going to be asking for 15%. None of that euro rubbish: straight dollar TBs for me.
no subject
Date: 2010-06-02 05:30 am (UTC)Your rationale, presumably, for not raising big on the flop is that he can get away from one-pair hands like QQ or even AK which make up a lot of his range here. However if you make the same pot-sized raise when you have a draw with reasonable EV then he's in a bad spot. Folding every time is giving up too much but stubbornly sticking with AK is going to cost him too. This is how you make money in position against a player like Chiren. Your tiny raise on a coordinated board makes it much too easy for him to call profitably with a wide range.
While it's true that a smaller raise will price out draws if you can make a correct laydown, it's also true that a larger raise removes the need to make the laydown at all. If you'd raised the pot on the flop and he'd called then you're getting far more favourable pot-odds on the turn and can call knowing it's correct to do so. You can't really ever be making a mistake now. Also, as we've seen, you can't really make perfect laydowns when they do hit [noone can] so stop deluding yourself and when you decide to raise on a draw-heavy board simply raise the pot.
--- matt