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[personal profile] peterbirks
I often wonder why, after a fairly hefty loss, such as I had this morning, I get so disturbed. After all, my stockholdings have gone down by far more over the past few weeks. The actual loss in absolute terms ($695) is not that significant in the grand scheme of things.

So why the feeling of disturbance?

The answer, I think, lies in, not what has just happened, but what I fear it might portend for the future. And this, unfortunately, is not an irrational fear. The facts remain:

1) Most poker players are losers above and beyond the rake they pay
2) The vast majority of poker players are either in the above group, or win less than the rake they pay, thus ending up net losers.
3) An even vaster majority include the above groups and a group that just about cover their rake and make a profit only from rakeback

That leaves (4), a very small group that wins money from rakeback and from "at the table" play.

To which we add:

5) The games are getting tougher all the time.

Any poker player not blinded by the self-deception of arrogant youth is perfectly aware that one day he will stop being a significant winner. True, there is a small small chance that this will turn out not to be true. He may carry on winning until the day he dies. But most will stop being winners. There's a long long list of bloggers and "pro" poker players from the early 2000s on who are no longer big winners. Some have held on to much of what they won. Many have spunked it away. But they aren't winning it now.

It's in the face of this inevitability of eventual failure that I look at every minor setback. Not what it signifies in and of itself, but what it might signify for the future.

In addition, I was slightly annoyed at myself. Firstly, I went back up to $1-$2 NL on Stars, even though I had banned myself from this level until I accumulated 20 buy-ins of wins at 50c-$1 NL. I went back up because, quite simply, I had to if I was going to maintain supernova status this month. This is an old mistake of mine, one which I have written about before, where I let the tail wag the dog. Unfortunately the marketing meisters at Pokerstars know exactly how big an incentive to set to make the player concerned (me) move up to a higher level.

Secondly, I made an old old mistake of mine, which was to beecome too much of a calling station in the early morning. Hands that I would fold during the tight-fests of a Wednesday afternoon, I reshove all-in with in the looser games of Saturday monring. But I over-compensate. The games are looser, but not that much looser. And the overshove from an opponent, even one who is slightly short-stacked, is not a desperate bluff from an American who has been up all night. It's the nuts.

So, I lost five all-ins (probably a record for me in two hours) and won two.

But, when I thought about it, I decided that, although I could marginally criticize my own play, if they had gone right, I would have been saying "brilliant".


Below are the four losing all ins from the second half of the session:



PokerStars Game #44764380854: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/05/29 3:29:05 ET
Table 'Parysatis II' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: sammyg11 ($390.20 in chips)
Seat 2: schwarmann ($217.85 in chips)
Seat 4: Masterfrank ($230.85 in chips)
Seat 5: TheLife ($207.55 in chips)
Seat 6: redacesfull ($374.55 in chips)
Seat 7: Chiren80 ($203 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero ($203 in chips)
Masterfrank: posts small blind $1
TheLife: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [T♡; T◊;]
redacesfull: folds
Chiren80: raises $3.10 to $5.10
Hero: calls $5.10
sammyg11: folds
schwarmann: folds
Masterfrank: folds
TheLife: folds
*** FLOP *** [4♡; T♠ K♡;]
Chiren80: bets $9.40
Hero: raises $9.40 to $18.80
Chiren80: calls $9.40
*** TURN *** [4♡; T♠ K♡;] [7♡;]
Chiren80: checks
Free-Cash-PS joins the table at seat #9
Hero: bets $38
Chiren80: raises $141.10 to $179.10 and is all-in
Hero: calls $141.10 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [4♡; T♠ K♡; 7♡;] [3♣;]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Chiren80: shows [Q♡; A♡;] (a flush, Ace high)
Hero: shows [T♡; T◊;] (three of a kind, Tens)
Chiren80 collected $406 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $409 | Rake $3
Board [4♡; T♠ K♡; 7♡; 3♣;]
Seat 1: sammyg11 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: schwarmann (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Masterfrank (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: TheLife (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: redacesfull folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Chiren80 showed [Q♡; A♡;] and won ($406) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 8: Hero showed [T♡; T◊;] and lost with three of a kind, Tens


With backward narrative, it's obvious. But I've seen this bet in the past from good players where they have the singleton Ace to the flush draw and just top pair. But this player isn't good enough or tricky enough for that. He's an ABC $1-$2 nit.

PokerStars Game #44764559183: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/05/29 3:38:55 ET
Table 'Sahlia V' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh ($200 in chips)
Seat 2: TheLife ($209.30 in chips)
Seat 3: Masterfrank ($342.30 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($394 in chips)
Seat 5: TYJohnRambo ($101 in chips)
Seat 6: chiarascurro ($58.85 in chips)
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS ($511.60 in chips)
Seat 8: bloodlust07 ($212.60 in chips)
Seat 9: Technobabble ($200 in chips)
TYJohnRambo: posts small blind $1
chiarascurro: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [T♣; T♡;]
Free-Cash-PS: raises $4 to $6
bloodlust07: folds
Technobabble: folds
Tae Joon Noh: folds
TheLife: folds
Masterfrank: folds
Hero: calls $6
TYJohnRambo: folds
chiarascurro: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [7◊; 8♣; 8◊;]
chiarascurro: checks
Free-Cash-PS: checks
Hero: bets $12
chiarascurro: raises $40.85 to $52.85 and is all-in
Free-Cash-PS: folds
Hero: calls $40.85
*** TURN *** [7◊; 8♣; 8◊;] [A♣;]
*** RIVER *** [7◊; 8♣; 8◊; A♣;] [6♣;]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
chiarascurro: shows [8♠ A♡;] (a full house, Eights full of Aces)
Hero: shows [T♣; T♡;] (two pair, Tens and Eights)
chiarascurro collected $121.70 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $124.70 | Rake $3
Board [7◊; 8♣; 8◊; A♣; 6♣;]
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: TheLife folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Masterfrank folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hero (button) showed [T♣; T♡;] and lost with two pair, Tens and Eights
Seat 5: TYJohnRambo (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: chiarascurro (big blind) showed [8♠ A♡;] and won ($121.70) with a full house, Eights full of Aces
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS folded on the Flop
Seat 8: bloodlust07 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Technobabble folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Not good play by me above. Not good at all. Shortness of opponent's stack threw me and I was definitely tilting slightly.


PokerStars Game #44764126118: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/05/29 3:14:29 ET
Table 'Sahlia V' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh ($204 in chips)
Seat 2: TheLife ($203 in chips)
Seat 3: Masterfrank ($342.30 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($197 in chips)
Seat 5: redacesfull ($240.65 in chips)
Seat 6: chiarascurro ($62.85 in chips)
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS ($424.35 in chips)
Seat 8: Marhash ($68 in chips)
Seat 9: Technobabble ($200 in chips)
redacesfull: posts small blind $1
chiarascurro: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [A♣; K♡;]
Free-Cash-PS: folds
Marhash: folds
Technobabble: folds
Tae Joon Noh: folds
TheLife: folds
Masterfrank: folds
Hero: raises $4 to $6
redacesfull: raises $12 to $18
chiarascurro: folds
Hero: raises $179 to $197 and is all-in
redacesfull: calls $179
*** FLOP *** [6◊; 9♣; Q♡;]
*** TURN *** [6◊; 9♣; Q♡;] [8♣;]
*** RIVER *** [6◊; 9♣; Q♡; 8♣;] [J♡;]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
redacesfull: shows [A◊; A♡;] (a pair of Aces)
Hero: shows [A♣; K♡;] (high card Ace)
redacesfull collected $393 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $396 | Rake $3
Board [6◊; 9♣; Q♡; 8♣; J♡;]
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: TheLife folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Masterfrank folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hero (button) showed [A♣; K♡;] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 5: redacesfull (small blind) showed [A◊; A♡;] and won ($393) with a pair of Aces
Seat 6: chiarascurro (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Marhash folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Technobabble folded before Flop (didn't bet)

This looks odd, but if the blinds have a high reraising range against button "stealers" (which this guy has), the shove here is actually profitable. Indeed, overbet shoves preflop perform better than many people think, particularly when the ranges of both players are wide. FML that this time I happen to run into Aces :-).





PokerStars Game #44763985493: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/05/29 3:06:35 ET
Table 'Sahlia V' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh ($200 in chips)
Seat 2: TheLife ($205.40 in chips)
Seat 3: Masterfrank ($288.30 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($202.25 in chips)
Seat 5: redacesfull ($239.65 in chips)
Seat 6: chiarascurro ($63.85 in chips)
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS ($226.10 in chips)
Seat 8: Marhash ($68 in chips)
chiarascurro: posts small blind $1
Free-Cash-PS: posts big blind $2
Technobabble: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Q♡; Q♣;]
Marhash: folds
Tae Joon Noh: folds
TheLife: folds
Masterfrank: folds
Hero: raises $4 to $6
redacesfull: folds
chiarascurro: folds
Free-Cash-PS: raises $14 to $20
Hero: calls $14
*** FLOP *** [7◊; 7♣; 2♡;]
Free-Cash-PS: bets $29
Hero: calls $29
*** TURN *** [7◊; 7♣; 2♡;] [5◊;]
Free-Cash-PS: bets $48
Hero: raises $105.25 to $153.25 and is all-in
Free-Cash-PS: calls $105.25
*** RIVER *** [7◊; 7♣; 2♡; 5◊;] [A◊;]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Free-Cash-PS: shows [A♣; A♡;] (a full house, Aces full of Sevens)
Hero: mucks hand
Free-Cash-PS collected $402.50 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $405.50 | Rake $3
Board [7◊; 7♣; 2♡; 5◊; A◊;]
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: TheLife folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Masterfrank folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hero mucked [Q♡; Q♣;]
Seat 5: redacesfull (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: chiarascurro (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS (big blind) showed [A♣; A♡;] and won ($402.50) with a full house, Aces full of Sevens
Seat 8: Marhash folded before Flop (didn't bet)

I was annoyed at myself immediately after this hand, but, given opponent's range, it's only marginally bad. But I think there are other lines that a likely to be more profitable, by a few bucks. But I might have avoided (probably should have avoided) getting stacked off here).



Oh, and here's one that I won: With backward narrative, it's easy to say "so what", but the bet by me on the river was not at all easy.


**** Hand History for Game 44764145146 ***** (Poker Stars)
$200.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, May 29, 03:15:35 ET 2010
Table Sahlia V (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: Tae Joon Noh ( $204.00 USD )
Seat 2: TheLife ( $203.00 USD )
Seat 3: Masterfrank ( $342.30 USD )
Seat 4: _PJB_ ( $200.00 USD )
Seat 5: redacesfull ( $436.65 USD )
Seat 6: chiarascurro ( $60.85 USD )
Seat 7: Free-Cash-PS ( $424.35 USD )
Seat 8: Marhash ( $68.00 USD )
Seat 9: Technobabble ( $200.00 USD )
chiarascurro posts small blind [$1.00 USD].
Free-Cash-PS posts big blind [$2.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to _PJB_ [ Ah Ac ]
Marhash folds
Technobabble folds
Tae Joon Noh raises [$6.00 USD]
TheLife folds
Masterfrank folds
_PJB_ raises [$18.00 USD]
redacesfull folds
chiarascurro folds
Free-Cash-PS folds
Tae Joon Noh calls [$12.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jd, 8d, 3h ]
Tae Joon Noh checks
_PJB_ bets [$18.00 USD]
Tae Joon Noh calls [$18.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Td ]
Tae Joon Noh checks
_PJB_ bets [$70.00 USD]
Tae Joon Noh calls [$70.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 3s ]
Tae Joon Noh checks
_PJB_ bets [$94.00 USD]
Tae Joon Noh calls [$94.00 USD]
_PJB_ shows [Ah, Ac ]
Tae Joon Noh shows [Ks, Kc ]
_PJB_ wins $400.00 USD from main pot
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