peterbirks: (Default)
[personal profile] peterbirks
OK: General consensus is for a pot raise, with one argument for a limp-reraise.


As it happens, the pot raise is right, but no-one spotted why (including me, when I was playing, which goes to show that you should always pay attention). My own line of thought that I was likely to get action for something slightly larger than a pot raise. I'm looking to double through here, and a "mere" pot raise is more likely to win me about 500.

So I raised it to 320. This was a mistake. As Sklansky might say, "can you see why?"

This went round to CO1, who promptly went all-in for 440. This got round to the small blind, who called. All others folded, and it came back to me.

Shit. I thought. If this was Prima, I know that I would be able to raise again. Are the rules the same on UB?

Unfortunately not. Because CO's raise was an underraise, I could only call.

Still, possibly no harm done. As long as an Ace doesn't come on the flop.

Pot size: 1410. I have 1120 in front of me.

The flop comes 986 two clubs.

Small blind bets 400.


What do I do?

Move in

Date: 2005-11-01 11:08 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danmonkey.livejournal.com
What is the sb holding? AA, 99 or 88 are possibilities (AA seems unlikely with the call), but so is 77, TT, JJ, QQ, AcK?, Ac,Q? AcQc and maybe AcJc, AcTc, QcJc or JcTc. 66 or less is also unlikely if the sb is solid.
We're ahead with anything but AA, 99, 88, 66 or JcTc (marginally behind) and the made straight is very low on the radar. Whatever he's holding he's unlikely to fold for 700 more making the side pot just about worth the bet on its own. Add the main pot into the equation and ship it all in the middle.

Date: 2005-11-01 03:45 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] 787style.livejournal.com
I probably jam, but I suck.

Date: 2005-11-01 06:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jellymillion.livejournal.com
If SB is a half-way decent player, which is a moderately-sized "if" then he may be smart enough, with his big stack, to make a semi- or even complete bluff at a paint-free flop.

Once you factor in that possibility with the range of value-bettable-but-behind hands, then I think a shove has considerable merit.

Shove it

Date: 2005-11-01 07:12 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peterbirks.livejournal.com
Well, shove it I did.

In retrospect, I think this was an error, despite the (gratifying) support from the correspondents.

SB played the same trick on me that I have played on many opponents. He knows that I am likely to call a 400 bet with AK or overcards, and to reraise with a big pair. Given the size of his stack, he can afford to bet bigger than 400 if he is really taking a stab at what is a reasonably sized pot. I think that, with hands I could beat, he would have bet as much as I had in front of me.

But, I fell for the trap, possibly because I was tired.

He flipped 99 and I was walking.

But the big mistake was raising 320 pre-flop. If I raise 200, and short stack goes all-in, then, assuming SB calls, I can reraise all-in. If he calls, well, I still get knocked out, but the EV is enormous. If he folds, the EV is slightly lower, but I have a nice stack of chips to play with.


PJ

Re: Shove it

Date: 2005-11-01 10:18 pm (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
I'd be quite unlikely to call a bet with overcards there, even AK. I've been doing a lot better lately by cutting down on the continuation bets. I probably follow up less than 50% of the time when I miss, and if someone bets into me he can usually have it.

Of course it's better to raise less pre-flop when you're not following up so much. But easing off when you miss means the pots you lose are smaller. I also don't give opponents much credit for observing me carefully (and in bigger games than $5 !) but if someone does decide to come after you this dovetails nicely with the way I often just call a raise pre-flop with a big hand in position.

Andy.

Re: Shove it

Date: 2005-11-02 11:22 am (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
Andy,

Pete was holding KcKh, not overcards.

Dan.

Re: Shove it

Date: 2005-11-02 03:54 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peterbirks.livejournal.com
Dan,

Andy was replying to my point that the bettor would expect a flat call with overcards, not my actual holding.

Actually, Andy makes a good point, even though he does not say what I should do here. I don't think that there is "no escape". The point really is, what's the best way to find the escape route.

I said that the bettor could be read as having a good hand because with a hand where he wanted me to fold, he would bet bigger. I think that this point still holds, given the size of his stack at the time. The "he would expect a call with overcards" is perhaps a bit of a red herring. When that 400 goes in, he's praying that I have a big pair and that I will raise him all-in.

Which, like a cunt, I promptly did.

Speaking of wihch and apropos your post Andy -- if we can assume that Harrington's book is going to be read by all players at a certain level and above, then I suspect many nights thinking in dark rooms are required to elicit the rock-paper-scissors implications of this for tournament play. I suspect that your decision not to put in continuation bets as often is one (biggish) step along this long journey.

And now, if you will forgive me, I have had a bit of a shitty day, and I want to throw things at walls.

PJ

Re: Shove it

Date: 2005-11-02 04:51 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] andy-ward-uk.livejournal.com
I didn't say what you should have done because it seems totally obvious to me that you push. He's got a set this time, never mind, fire up another one.

As for the counter-strategising, you read my mind ! I shall be posting on this topic soon.

Andy.

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