Deeper and Down
Feb. 12th, 2007 07:17 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksFebruary continues to be a struggle, with last night's venture into the dizzy heights of $2-$4 6-max proving distinctly less than successful. When you have a couple of seriously loose players at the table, you know that you are going to have to get some good hands to win, and it just wasn't happening for me (four pairs in the first 250 hands, none higher than sevens). That said, a peek at my final stats for the 700-hand session gave me cause for concern that my expectation at this level might, at the moment, be negative. The increased aggression of the opponents seems to make a style that succeeds at $1-$2 6-max somewhat less effective at the next level up. However, I think that I will stick at it, for the moment.
I wonder if part of the reason for some poorer results this month is a sliping back into the bad old ways of "I need to play this number of hands to qualify for the bonuses". The net result of that attitude is that you inevitably find yourself playing at times when the games are less attractive, or when you are tired. In other words, it's easy to average +2BB per 100 if you pick and choose your games and only play when at the top of your mental alertness, but far less easy to do so if you are trying to to play 15,000 hands a month rather than 6,000. I know that I often play in games that other bloggers simply aren't interested in touching, so perhaps any positive results from such games should be treasured. However, that brings you back to the "playing to break even to generate the bonus", which is almost as dispiriting as playing sit'n'goes (I tried a Turbo one, for a break, on Paradise yesterday. That's my lot for the next few months. God they are horrible. 40 minutes, not one decision that required more than a nano-second's thought, damaged by a rivered flush to my two-pair and then out when my 99 all-in promptly found QQ on the button. Tedium, sheer tedium.)
I'll drop back to the $1-$2 6-max on Noble for midweek and try again at the $2-$4 6-max at the weekends. I have a feeling that I am plus EV in those games, but the variance is a killer. $100 swings within five-minute timespans, several times.
I don't really feel that I am playing in any games at the moment which are less than a plus 1BB per hundred EV. It's just one of those "going nowhere" phases. I just hope it does't switch into a "going down" phase.
I wonder if part of the reason for some poorer results this month is a sliping back into the bad old ways of "I need to play this number of hands to qualify for the bonuses". The net result of that attitude is that you inevitably find yourself playing at times when the games are less attractive, or when you are tired. In other words, it's easy to average +2BB per 100 if you pick and choose your games and only play when at the top of your mental alertness, but far less easy to do so if you are trying to to play 15,000 hands a month rather than 6,000. I know that I often play in games that other bloggers simply aren't interested in touching, so perhaps any positive results from such games should be treasured. However, that brings you back to the "playing to break even to generate the bonus", which is almost as dispiriting as playing sit'n'goes (I tried a Turbo one, for a break, on Paradise yesterday. That's my lot for the next few months. God they are horrible. 40 minutes, not one decision that required more than a nano-second's thought, damaged by a rivered flush to my two-pair and then out when my 99 all-in promptly found QQ on the button. Tedium, sheer tedium.)
I'll drop back to the $1-$2 6-max on Noble for midweek and try again at the $2-$4 6-max at the weekends. I have a feeling that I am plus EV in those games, but the variance is a killer. $100 swings within five-minute timespans, several times.
I don't really feel that I am playing in any games at the moment which are less than a plus 1BB per hundred EV. It's just one of those "going nowhere" phases. I just hope it does't switch into a "going down" phase.
no subject
Date: 2007-02-12 01:18 pm (UTC)matt
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Date: 2007-02-12 01:41 pm (UTC)My pairs perfomance picked up later (and I should point out that, of those four pairs in the first 250 hands, I won with the sevens (uncontested) and a decent pot with the twos, which came out with the legendarily pleasing board of A-K-2).
However, by the time my cards began to return to normal quality, I was probably tiring and not a little irritated, which led me to fail to exploit my hands optimally. This is what I mean by only playing when fully mentally aware, (as well as only playing when the games are good). With a full-time job, if I pick and choose in that fashion, I doubt that I would be able to get in more than 5,000 hands a month. And 6-max requires more marginal decisions, more often, than does a full-ring game.
So, once again, we come down to margins. 5,000 hands at 1.5bb a hundred? Or 15,000 hands at 0.75bb a hundred, and with an additional $400 or so in bonuses?
And it's not even that simple, because the goddess variance cane mess around with such numbers something chronic.
No, my estimate of EV was based on gut instinct, and that was roughly that, if I was on top mental form, and running "average", I was likely to be positive EV (and that this would increase as I got more of a feel of the way people tended to play). But make it three tables rather than two, or tire me out, or make the luck run a little bad, and I would probably be a loser.
PJ
To bonus hunt or not to bonus hunt.
Date: 2007-02-12 07:15 pm (UTC)Funny enough, at my own level, I have been through much the same debate as you with regard to concentrating on playing on tables where I can win regularly or flogging away to clear bonuses.
I decided against the bonus chasing because, it was, as you point out, a bit dispiriting and it wasn't even as profitable in the long run (for me anyway). I had been playing on "INTER" and the "bonus revolution" has created rafts of tables at 1/2 and 2/4 of folk grinding away with 20% and below flops seen the norm. It was no fun at all.
I'm now playing at places like "CD" where I can find nice profitable soft games, even though the bonuses are rubbish.
All the best
Brian