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May. 10th, 2005 02:08 amI have decided on a new strategy. I am going to try to win fewer flops at showdown.
No, I haven't gone gaga. Basically my percentage of flops won at showdown over the past three years has been 60%, perhaps edging up slightly to 62-63% in the last six months. I see about 18% of flops, and, added together, this made for a small and regular profit. My variance was considered ridiculously low by Aksu (I was down to about 9 big bets an hour).
And, I've decided, it just isn't going to hack it at $5-$10.
The key percentage (not mentioned above) is % won when saw flop. I've seen players with only a 45% win ratio at showdown be massively in profit. How can this be? Because they have a percentage won when saw flop of about 45%. Compared with my 28% to 31%, this is a big jump.
So, how do they do this? Well, that is what I am trying to learn. Clearly, BDD's "when you start off aggressive, stay aggressive" has something to do with it. I'll confess that this tactic was almost agonising for me tonight. I felt as if I was a maniac. And I also suspect that BDD did not tell the full story. You also have to have a feel for when to back off and when to three-bet. I must have lost $250 tonight pushing hands too far when I should have backed off.
And yet, I did end up winning $19. And I won $72 at my second table, with these heartening figures:
% saw flop: 15.5% (a fraction lower than usual)
% raise: 10.5% (about standard)
Won $ when saw flop: 36.5% (6 points up on normal)
Won $ at showdown: 47.62% (13 points lower than usual)
What does this show? That taking the aggression just that little bit further than you feel is wise does pay off. OK, it's a small sample of 270 hands. And, although I lost $250 pushing a couple of hands too far, I also won about $150 with "Ace-highs" that I would have backed away from in my previous style, and probably lost.
So, all I need to do is get a finer feel of when to back off and when to push on, and I should be onto a winning strategy.
Because, of course, at this level people watch you. And some of my plays (three-betting a flop of K72 one heart with A9 of hearts, was one example) must have had the opposition rubbing their hands in anticipation. In that hand I pipped a nine on the river to beat my opponent's pair of fours.
The Blinds at this level on PTY seem to love defending with a small-pair and check-raising ANY flop. If I had walked away from my Ace-Kings that failed to hit, I would never have discovered this.
Finally, one of my lucky hands of the night. I like it because it was a hand that I played to my own style (probably not seen anywhere outside Lewisham) but which (probably) maximised the return possible.
Oh, and by the way, Party IS a lot looser between 1am and 3am. Glad that I got five hours' sleep when I got home!
$5/$10 Hold'em - Monday, May 09, 20:51:59 EDT 2005
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 6: Birks ( $550 )
Seat 5: barn123 (loose) ( $294 )
Seat 10: RealGone (tight) ( $487.74 )
Seat 2: WRLCPA (tight) ( $164 )
Seat 4: gravee ( $178.5 )
Seat 9: deucepaxton (tight) ( $279.08 )
Seat 8: leeloy61 (fish) ( $473.5 )
Seat 3: barrym222 (fish) ( $160 )
Seat 7: fletch1 (competent)( $241 )
Seat 1: boston22334 ( $218 )
leeloy61 posts small blind [$2].
deucepaxton posts big blind [$5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Birks 5h 4h
RealGone folds.
boston22334 folds.
WRLCPA folds.
barrym222 calls [$5].
barn123 folds.
Birks calls [$5].
fletch1 calls [$5].
leeloy61 raises [$8].
deucepaxton calls [$5].
barrym222 calls [$5].
Birks calls [$5].
fletch1 calls [$5].
leeloy is quite aggressive. That raise could just be an "I'm in a mood for raising" raise.
** Dealing Flop ** 2h, Ah, 9h
Woohoo! The question now is, how to play it. One way is to play it slowly and pack in the bet on the turn, when calling with a single heart will be worse value. I'd be happy to win this already sizeable pot uncontested.
leeloy61 checks.
deucepaxton checks.
barrym222 checks.
Birks checks.
fletch1 bets [$5].
But this changes things. Since people will now be getting value to call for a single heart, and since I have pot equity, I'll play it differently:-
leeloy61 calls [$5].
deucepaxton folds.
barrym222 calls [$5].
Birks raises [$10].
fletch1 calls [$5].
leeloy61 calls [$5].
barrym222 calls [$5].
So, I can now be fairly sure that this will go to the end. I just have to pray that the turn and river do not pair the board or bring a heart.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6s ]
So far, so good.
leeloy61 checks.
barrym222 checks.
Birks bets [$10].
fletch1 calls [$10].
Now, Fletch could have the nut flush here. It's a nice play. But I think that he would raise, solely because the other players would still be getting value to call if they had a set, and because two of them are so loose, they might even come in for two bets with top pair. No, I think Fletch just has a pair of Aces and possibly a heart back up, Or he has two-pair with no heart back-up.
leeloy61 folds.
barrym222 folds.
** Dealing River ** [ 7c ]
I think that's good enough
Birks bets [$10].
fletch1 calls [$10].
Birks shows 5h, 4h a flush, ace high.
fletch1 doesn't show As, Qh a pair of aces.
Birks wins $127 from the main pot with a flush, ace high.
I just liked this hand. It had a lot of the Abdul Jalib niceties about it. You wouldn't see many low limit books recommending that it be played this way, either. But deep checks with a made hand at this level often work, because the button so often bets. And, if he doesn't, I get the other option of making it bad value for theopposition to call the turn. It's abit like the small pair syndrome, where you want wither one opponent or more than four. Here you either want a raised pot on the flop, or one checked round. Either way, my check on the flop guarantees this.
No, I haven't gone gaga. Basically my percentage of flops won at showdown over the past three years has been 60%, perhaps edging up slightly to 62-63% in the last six months. I see about 18% of flops, and, added together, this made for a small and regular profit. My variance was considered ridiculously low by Aksu (I was down to about 9 big bets an hour).
And, I've decided, it just isn't going to hack it at $5-$10.
The key percentage (not mentioned above) is % won when saw flop. I've seen players with only a 45% win ratio at showdown be massively in profit. How can this be? Because they have a percentage won when saw flop of about 45%. Compared with my 28% to 31%, this is a big jump.
So, how do they do this? Well, that is what I am trying to learn. Clearly, BDD's "when you start off aggressive, stay aggressive" has something to do with it. I'll confess that this tactic was almost agonising for me tonight. I felt as if I was a maniac. And I also suspect that BDD did not tell the full story. You also have to have a feel for when to back off and when to three-bet. I must have lost $250 tonight pushing hands too far when I should have backed off.
And yet, I did end up winning $19. And I won $72 at my second table, with these heartening figures:
% saw flop: 15.5% (a fraction lower than usual)
% raise: 10.5% (about standard)
Won $ when saw flop: 36.5% (6 points up on normal)
Won $ at showdown: 47.62% (13 points lower than usual)
What does this show? That taking the aggression just that little bit further than you feel is wise does pay off. OK, it's a small sample of 270 hands. And, although I lost $250 pushing a couple of hands too far, I also won about $150 with "Ace-highs" that I would have backed away from in my previous style, and probably lost.
So, all I need to do is get a finer feel of when to back off and when to push on, and I should be onto a winning strategy.
Because, of course, at this level people watch you. And some of my plays (three-betting a flop of K72 one heart with A9 of hearts, was one example) must have had the opposition rubbing their hands in anticipation. In that hand I pipped a nine on the river to beat my opponent's pair of fours.
The Blinds at this level on PTY seem to love defending with a small-pair and check-raising ANY flop. If I had walked away from my Ace-Kings that failed to hit, I would never have discovered this.
Finally, one of my lucky hands of the night. I like it because it was a hand that I played to my own style (probably not seen anywhere outside Lewisham) but which (probably) maximised the return possible.
Oh, and by the way, Party IS a lot looser between 1am and 3am. Glad that I got five hours' sleep when I got home!
$5/$10 Hold'em - Monday, May 09, 20:51:59 EDT 2005
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 6: Birks ( $550 )
Seat 5: barn123 (loose) ( $294 )
Seat 10: RealGone (tight) ( $487.74 )
Seat 2: WRLCPA (tight) ( $164 )
Seat 4: gravee ( $178.5 )
Seat 9: deucepaxton (tight) ( $279.08 )
Seat 8: leeloy61 (fish) ( $473.5 )
Seat 3: barrym222 (fish) ( $160 )
Seat 7: fletch1 (competent)( $241 )
Seat 1: boston22334 ( $218 )
leeloy61 posts small blind [$2].
deucepaxton posts big blind [$5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Birks 5h 4h
RealGone folds.
boston22334 folds.
WRLCPA folds.
barrym222 calls [$5].
barn123 folds.
Birks calls [$5].
fletch1 calls [$5].
leeloy61 raises [$8].
deucepaxton calls [$5].
barrym222 calls [$5].
Birks calls [$5].
fletch1 calls [$5].
leeloy is quite aggressive. That raise could just be an "I'm in a mood for raising" raise.
** Dealing Flop ** 2h, Ah, 9h
Woohoo! The question now is, how to play it. One way is to play it slowly and pack in the bet on the turn, when calling with a single heart will be worse value. I'd be happy to win this already sizeable pot uncontested.
leeloy61 checks.
deucepaxton checks.
barrym222 checks.
Birks checks.
fletch1 bets [$5].
But this changes things. Since people will now be getting value to call for a single heart, and since I have pot equity, I'll play it differently:-
leeloy61 calls [$5].
deucepaxton folds.
barrym222 calls [$5].
Birks raises [$10].
fletch1 calls [$5].
leeloy61 calls [$5].
barrym222 calls [$5].
So, I can now be fairly sure that this will go to the end. I just have to pray that the turn and river do not pair the board or bring a heart.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6s ]
So far, so good.
leeloy61 checks.
barrym222 checks.
Birks bets [$10].
fletch1 calls [$10].
Now, Fletch could have the nut flush here. It's a nice play. But I think that he would raise, solely because the other players would still be getting value to call if they had a set, and because two of them are so loose, they might even come in for two bets with top pair. No, I think Fletch just has a pair of Aces and possibly a heart back up, Or he has two-pair with no heart back-up.
leeloy61 folds.
barrym222 folds.
** Dealing River ** [ 7c ]
I think that's good enough
Birks bets [$10].
fletch1 calls [$10].
Birks shows 5h, 4h a flush, ace high.
fletch1 doesn't show As, Qh a pair of aces.
Birks wins $127 from the main pot with a flush, ace high.
I just liked this hand. It had a lot of the Abdul Jalib niceties about it. You wouldn't see many low limit books recommending that it be played this way, either. But deep checks with a made hand at this level often work, because the button so often bets. And, if he doesn't, I get the other option of making it bad value for theopposition to call the turn. It's abit like the small pair syndrome, where you want wither one opponent or more than four. Here you either want a raised pot on the flop, or one checked round. Either way, my check on the flop guarantees this.
