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A couple of hands
Sep. 21st, 2008 12:13 pmA perpetually reoccurring situation in NL is where you have to decide how much to bet on the turn to get an opponent into the hand, but not to "price him in". The "perfect" bet is the maximum that he will call when not priced in (or, if you cannot but help price him in, the minimum bet you can make to which he will fold. Always give opponent the opportunity to make the biggest mistake possible.)
The problem, of course, is that if you make the "perfect" bet, you never know whether it was perfect (unless you go all-in and he calls when not priced in), because perhaps you could have bet a bit more and he would still have called, or perhaps you could have bet a bit less and he would still have folded.
Here's two hands where I got it wrong.
Pacific Hand - $0.5/$1 Blinds No Limit Hold'em
Table Sunburn (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: Nyypius ( $100 )
Seat 2: Hero ( $175 )
Seat 3: zitworm ( $111.99 )
Seat 4: ULehmann ( $60.1 )
Seat 6: dive242 ( $106.61 )
Seat 7: marsha33 ( $116.21 )
Seat 8: Tzudevil ( $95 ) (looseish passive, something like 37%/4%)
Seat 9: groes85 ( $97.5 )
Hero posts small blind [$0.5].
zitworm posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ J♡; 8♡; ]
ULehmann folds.
dive242 folds.
marsha33 calls [$1].
Tzudevil calls [$1].
groes85 folds.
Nyypius calls [$1].
Hero calls [$0.5].
(This is a fairly easy completion decision, given the number of oppoents in the hand.)
zitworm checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ K♡;, 8◊;, 10h ;, ]
Hero bets [$3].
(Once again, I don't think this bet is too controversial, given my own style. It doesn't narrow my range much and I would imagine most opponents would put me on Kx.)
zitworm folds.
marsha33 calls [$3].
Tzudevil raises [$11].
Nyypius folds.
Hero calls [$8].
(In hindsight, this is right, but I'm really not sure that it's right in practice. My only justification is that of implied odds, and the fact that opponent was loose passive was something to do with this. If I hit my hand, I don't think opponent will be able top get away from it. BBTW, I put opponent on a range of TPTK to top two-pair here, with about 10% ascribed to wild-card possibilities like a straight draw.)
marsha33 calls [$8].
(Looks like a "won't bet won't fold" kind of player).
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8♣; ]
(Gives me trips. I see no reason for a donk bet here. I don't think either opponent will see an eight as a scare card.)
Hero checks.
marsha33 bets [$3.5].
Tzudevil raises [$20].
(This really does seem to show some strength. I might even be losing to a set of tens. T8 or K8, but I just don't think that I am. I still reckon he's TPTK or top two pair and he's trying to chase off a draw.)
Hero raises [$108.51].((I really thought at least one opponent would call this bet).
marsha33 folds.
Tzudevil folds.
But they didn't.
** Summary **
Hero collected [$165.51].
((Of course, to say "I got it wrong" here opens up a Sklansky can of worms. As we know, the percentage of times that an opponent needs to call a bigger bet is lower than one would instinctively think for the bigger bet to remain profitable. This is the thinking behind a large number of the overbets that you see from ABC German medium (and full) stackers. They've read that chapter in Sklansky, and they stick to it. Unfortunately, if people never call this overbet, it's still the wrong size. The only evidence that I have in a sample of one is that I bet all-in, and he folded. I try to judge these hands on an opponent-by-opponent basis, and in this case, I got it wrong. Of course, it's possible that he had total shite and he would have folded to a mini-reraise. But, since I do not have the nuts here, my bet must be considered too large.))
+++++++++++++++++++
Here's a hand that went off in a different direction:
PokerStars Hold'em Pot Limit ($0.50/$1.00)
Table 'Geramtina' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: Carbolic ($100 in chips)
Seat 3: Schwatt7 ($103.20 in chips)
Seat 4: Villain ($48.25 in chips) (conicidentally (see above, also looseish passive, 37%/3%, although I had little info on the guy when this hand was played)
Seat 5: P U N I O ($92.10 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero ($100 in chips)
Seat 7: BillyMac29 ($131.10 in chips)
Seat 8: gosha15 ($79.50 in chips)
Seat 9: Profesigh ($114.55 in chips)
gosha15: posts small blind $0.50
Profesigh: posts big blind $1
Villain: posts small blind $0.50
Hero: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [8♠ 6♣;]
Carbolic: folds
Schwatt7: folds
Villain: calls $1
P U N I O: folds
Hero: checks
BillyMac29: folds
gosha15: calls $0.50
Profesigh: checks
*** FLOP *** [K◊; 9♡; 7♠]
SnapShip joins the table at seat #1
gosha15: checks
Profesigh: checks
Villain: checks
Hero: bets $3
(I thought about checking here on the grounds that my draw isn't that great. But I take down a lot of pots uncontested with these bets...)
gosha15: folds
Profesigh: folds
Villain: raises $3 to $6
(…but not this time.)
Hero: calls $3
*** TURN *** [K◊; 9♡; 7♠] [T♠]
Villain: bets $5
Hero: raises $15 to $20
(This is too low. I really have to get some kind of system in my head that works when four-tabling and allows for the different raising formats on different sites. Raising $20 to $25 is better and, since I now know what opponent has, raising all-in is better still. Against opponents' range and the high chance that a "scare" card will come on the river, I think I should leave opponent with between $10 and $15 to bet on the river. No more.)
Villain: calls $15
*** RIVER *** [K◊; 9♡; 7♠ T♠] [K♣;]
Villain: bets $20.75 and is all-in
(I'm committed to calling here, which is another reason for me to have raised more on the turn. A sufficient number of times (at this site, at this time of day) this kind of bet goes in on the river when opponent has missed his draw.)
Hero: calls $20.75
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [K♠ 9♠] (a full house, Kings full of Nines)
Hero: mucks hand
Villain collected $95 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $98 | Rake $3
Board [K◊; 9♡; 7♠ T♠ K♣;]
Seat 4: Villain showed [K♠ 9♠] and won ($95) with a full house, Kings full of Nines
Seat 6: Hero mucked [8♠ 6♣;]
Seat 8: gosha15 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: Profesigh (big blind) folded on the Flop
________________
The problem, of course, is that if you make the "perfect" bet, you never know whether it was perfect (unless you go all-in and he calls when not priced in), because perhaps you could have bet a bit more and he would still have called, or perhaps you could have bet a bit less and he would still have folded.
Here's two hands where I got it wrong.
Pacific Hand - $0.5/$1 Blinds No Limit Hold'em
Table Sunburn (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: Nyypius ( $100 )
Seat 2: Hero ( $175 )
Seat 3: zitworm ( $111.99 )
Seat 4: ULehmann ( $60.1 )
Seat 6: dive242 ( $106.61 )
Seat 7: marsha33 ( $116.21 )
Seat 8: Tzudevil ( $95 ) (looseish passive, something like 37%/4%)
Seat 9: groes85 ( $97.5 )
Hero posts small blind [$0.5].
zitworm posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ J♡; 8♡; ]
ULehmann folds.
dive242 folds.
marsha33 calls [$1].
Tzudevil calls [$1].
groes85 folds.
Nyypius calls [$1].
Hero calls [$0.5].
(This is a fairly easy completion decision, given the number of oppoents in the hand.)
zitworm checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ K♡;, 8◊;, 10h ;, ]
Hero bets [$3].
(Once again, I don't think this bet is too controversial, given my own style. It doesn't narrow my range much and I would imagine most opponents would put me on Kx.)
zitworm folds.
marsha33 calls [$3].
Tzudevil raises [$11].
Nyypius folds.
Hero calls [$8].
(In hindsight, this is right, but I'm really not sure that it's right in practice. My only justification is that of implied odds, and the fact that opponent was loose passive was something to do with this. If I hit my hand, I don't think opponent will be able top get away from it. BBTW, I put opponent on a range of TPTK to top two-pair here, with about 10% ascribed to wild-card possibilities like a straight draw.)
marsha33 calls [$8].
(Looks like a "won't bet won't fold" kind of player).
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8♣; ]
(Gives me trips. I see no reason for a donk bet here. I don't think either opponent will see an eight as a scare card.)
Hero checks.
marsha33 bets [$3.5].
Tzudevil raises [$20].
(This really does seem to show some strength. I might even be losing to a set of tens. T8 or K8, but I just don't think that I am. I still reckon he's TPTK or top two pair and he's trying to chase off a draw.)
Hero raises [$108.51].((I really thought at least one opponent would call this bet).
marsha33 folds.
Tzudevil folds.
But they didn't.
** Summary **
Hero collected [$165.51].
((Of course, to say "I got it wrong" here opens up a Sklansky can of worms. As we know, the percentage of times that an opponent needs to call a bigger bet is lower than one would instinctively think for the bigger bet to remain profitable. This is the thinking behind a large number of the overbets that you see from ABC German medium (and full) stackers. They've read that chapter in Sklansky, and they stick to it. Unfortunately, if people never call this overbet, it's still the wrong size. The only evidence that I have in a sample of one is that I bet all-in, and he folded. I try to judge these hands on an opponent-by-opponent basis, and in this case, I got it wrong. Of course, it's possible that he had total shite and he would have folded to a mini-reraise. But, since I do not have the nuts here, my bet must be considered too large.))
+++++++++++++++++++
Here's a hand that went off in a different direction:
PokerStars Hold'em Pot Limit ($0.50/$1.00)
Table 'Geramtina' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: Carbolic ($100 in chips)
Seat 3: Schwatt7 ($103.20 in chips)
Seat 4: Villain ($48.25 in chips) (conicidentally (see above, also looseish passive, 37%/3%, although I had little info on the guy when this hand was played)
Seat 5: P U N I O ($92.10 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero ($100 in chips)
Seat 7: BillyMac29 ($131.10 in chips)
Seat 8: gosha15 ($79.50 in chips)
Seat 9: Profesigh ($114.55 in chips)
gosha15: posts small blind $0.50
Profesigh: posts big blind $1
Villain: posts small blind $0.50
Hero: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [8♠ 6♣;]
Carbolic: folds
Schwatt7: folds
Villain: calls $1
P U N I O: folds
Hero: checks
BillyMac29: folds
gosha15: calls $0.50
Profesigh: checks
*** FLOP *** [K◊; 9♡; 7♠]
SnapShip joins the table at seat #1
gosha15: checks
Profesigh: checks
Villain: checks
Hero: bets $3
(I thought about checking here on the grounds that my draw isn't that great. But I take down a lot of pots uncontested with these bets...)
gosha15: folds
Profesigh: folds
Villain: raises $3 to $6
(…but not this time.)
Hero: calls $3
*** TURN *** [K◊; 9♡; 7♠] [T♠]
Villain: bets $5
Hero: raises $15 to $20
(This is too low. I really have to get some kind of system in my head that works when four-tabling and allows for the different raising formats on different sites. Raising $20 to $25 is better and, since I now know what opponent has, raising all-in is better still. Against opponents' range and the high chance that a "scare" card will come on the river, I think I should leave opponent with between $10 and $15 to bet on the river. No more.)
Villain: calls $15
*** RIVER *** [K◊; 9♡; 7♠ T♠] [K♣;]
Villain: bets $20.75 and is all-in
(I'm committed to calling here, which is another reason for me to have raised more on the turn. A sufficient number of times (at this site, at this time of day) this kind of bet goes in on the river when opponent has missed his draw.)
Hero: calls $20.75
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [K♠ 9♠] (a full house, Kings full of Nines)
Hero: mucks hand
Villain collected $95 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $98 | Rake $3
Board [K◊; 9♡; 7♠ T♠ K♣;]
Seat 4: Villain showed [K♠ 9♠] and won ($95) with a full house, Kings full of Nines
Seat 6: Hero mucked [8♠ 6♣;]
Seat 8: gosha15 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: Profesigh (big blind) folded on the Flop
________________
