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Market Timing
Nov. 22nd, 2008 08:24 amWell, yesterday was a good example of how it's a dangerous game trying to time the market. Although the FTSE was depressed for the whole day, and the Dow was depressed for most of it, the last hour or so of trading this time saw a massive spurt rather than a sell-off.
Business journalists, always in search of causation, attributed the move to the prediction that Timothy Geithner would be appointed Treasury Secretary today. In fact it was all technical chartist and seat of the pants gambling stuff. Do they REALLY think the traders and investors sit there going "hmm, Geithner, good choice, I think I'll turn from being bearish to bullissh."? Of course they don't. Friday afternoon is about squaring positions and taking a weekend away.
That doesn't detract from an overall bearish feel. The UK's drop to 3780 now makes 4,050 a resistance point on the upside rather than downside. It just changes the timing a bit.
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Here's an interesting snippet I learnt this morning. At the close of Chaplin's Modern Times, there is a Pucciniesque-bit of music. But it isn't by Puccini. Who did write it? (Of course, you can Google anything these days, but it's an interesting thing to find out).
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Off to Worcestershire this evening, which might get me away from the icy roads on the way out, but not on the way back on Monday night...
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Business journalists, always in search of causation, attributed the move to the prediction that Timothy Geithner would be appointed Treasury Secretary today. In fact it was all technical chartist and seat of the pants gambling stuff. Do they REALLY think the traders and investors sit there going "hmm, Geithner, good choice, I think I'll turn from being bearish to bullissh."? Of course they don't. Friday afternoon is about squaring positions and taking a weekend away.
That doesn't detract from an overall bearish feel. The UK's drop to 3780 now makes 4,050 a resistance point on the upside rather than downside. It just changes the timing a bit.
++++++++
Here's an interesting snippet I learnt this morning. At the close of Chaplin's Modern Times, there is a Pucciniesque-bit of music. But it isn't by Puccini. Who did write it? (Of course, you can Google anything these days, but it's an interesting thing to find out).
++++++++
Off to Worcestershire this evening, which might get me away from the icy roads on the way out, but not on the way back on Monday night...
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