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Jul. 5th, 2010 02:50 pmA brief summary of the first six months. About the same profit as last year, but for many more hands. My gain per 100 hands was terrible in H1 -- the lowest since 2004 I think. My hourly rate was also disappointing, although to a lesser degree. About $15 an hour.
It's not that I've got worse; I just haven't got better fast enough to cope with the increasing toughness of the games. I played yesterday for several hours (Saturday was a nightmare 3,500-hand odyssey, let's not go there) and I don't think that I saw a single fish. Winning now is all about beating the other winners. The prognosis is not good.
I'll probably keep on hammering away for at least the next few months, but I can see that it might soon be time to throw in the towel and go back to purely recreational play. My one last throw of the dice might be Short-handed four-tabling at, hopefully, higher stakes. Basically I just want to get back to winning at 3BB a hundred at reasonable volume (300 hands-plus an hour).
But if all of that proves a no-no, well I could get back into the live game; I could give tournaments a spin with my FPPS; I could play some triple draw. I have no wish to play PLO online because I know that what makes people good at PLO is the weakest part of my game.
There was an interesting post on 2+2 (where realism finally seems to be sinking in) that said the so-called "growth" in the game was nothing of the sort, but was the result of mis-counting and the relative explosion in the number of multi-tablers. You might still have 120 tables running, but instead of that being 600 single-tablers and 150 multi-tablers, it's now more likely to be 100 single-tablers and 150 multitablers.
I did have a genuinely tough spot (as usual, a multi-player situation) last night that went something like this:
Blinds $1-$2
Villain 1: ($100) UTG+1: raises to $6
Villain 2: ($200) MP2: calls
Hero ($200) (Hi-jack): 9s 9d.
Let's assume all of the players at the table are TAGs, in the 12/10 to 18/14 region. Cos bascially all of the tables are like that on Stars now.
Cold-calling here is not good unless you are willing to call a squeeze from the blinds, but it's slightly safer because of first raiser's relatively short stack. If one of the blind squeezes for, say, $26, then the original raiser is more comfortable with a shove of AKs, AKo or QQ (even JJ), provided the reraising blind is known to be capable of trying a squeeze. That knowledge in turn on the part of the Blinds makes a squeeze less likely.
Re-raising has some merit against a laggy opener, even though 99 is heading towards the thin side.
If the original opener has a full stack and either of the blinds is known to love a squeeze, then the reraise probably reduces volatility, while the cold call increases it. But I wouldn't think that in the long run there'd be a lot of difference in EV. Arguing about it is more principle-based and can degenerate into "angels on the head of a pin". The least volatile decision is, of course, to fold. But if I had to put numbers on the decision here, I'd say that calling might have an average gain of a couple of bucks with a standard deviation of 12 bucks or so, while reraising might have an average gain of the same, with a standard deviation of slightly less if the blind likes a squeeze and slighty more if he doesn't.
So, suppose you reraise to $23. Passed round to UTG+1, who shoves for $100. Cold-caller folds. Do you call or fold? Should you have reraised more or less, or were you about right?
Alternatively, passed round to UTG+1 who folds, as does original cold-caller. Net result. Profit of $15 TYVM.
Suppose you cold-call. As it happens, it's passed round, and the flop comes 9h 8c 5d, giving you top set. There's $20 in the pot.
UTG+1 bets $8. Original cold-caller raises to $21.
Let's guess some ranges here. UTG looks weak, probably an AKo just giving it a go, but perhaps 77. 88, 55, is within the range, but that's only 12 combinations combined, far outnumbered by AK, AQs. An overpair would surely bet higher, but he might have played it poorly.
Raiser could be an overpair (KK would be my guess, because a lot of players do not reraise pre-flop with KK), or, of course, could be 76s, but that's only four combinations and one has to assume that the player would cold-call with that in a vulnerable spot, which most players at this level wouldn't. Finally (and, I think, most likely), there's 98s, 88 or 55 (13 combinations). Throw in another 12 combinations for hands that I haven't thought of.
So, do I cold-call here or reraise? And if I reraise, by how much?
There's $49 in the pot, it's $21 to me, and effective stacks are $86 at the short stack ($13 to call), $194 my stack ($21 to call) and $173 in main opponent's stack (he has bet the $21).
______________
It's not that I've got worse; I just haven't got better fast enough to cope with the increasing toughness of the games. I played yesterday for several hours (Saturday was a nightmare 3,500-hand odyssey, let's not go there) and I don't think that I saw a single fish. Winning now is all about beating the other winners. The prognosis is not good.
I'll probably keep on hammering away for at least the next few months, but I can see that it might soon be time to throw in the towel and go back to purely recreational play. My one last throw of the dice might be Short-handed four-tabling at, hopefully, higher stakes. Basically I just want to get back to winning at 3BB a hundred at reasonable volume (300 hands-plus an hour).
But if all of that proves a no-no, well I could get back into the live game; I could give tournaments a spin with my FPPS; I could play some triple draw. I have no wish to play PLO online because I know that what makes people good at PLO is the weakest part of my game.
There was an interesting post on 2+2 (where realism finally seems to be sinking in) that said the so-called "growth" in the game was nothing of the sort, but was the result of mis-counting and the relative explosion in the number of multi-tablers. You might still have 120 tables running, but instead of that being 600 single-tablers and 150 multi-tablers, it's now more likely to be 100 single-tablers and 150 multitablers.
I did have a genuinely tough spot (as usual, a multi-player situation) last night that went something like this:
Blinds $1-$2
Villain 1: ($100) UTG+1: raises to $6
Villain 2: ($200) MP2: calls
Hero ($200) (Hi-jack): 9s 9d.
Let's assume all of the players at the table are TAGs, in the 12/10 to 18/14 region. Cos bascially all of the tables are like that on Stars now.
Cold-calling here is not good unless you are willing to call a squeeze from the blinds, but it's slightly safer because of first raiser's relatively short stack. If one of the blind squeezes for, say, $26, then the original raiser is more comfortable with a shove of AKs, AKo or QQ (even JJ), provided the reraising blind is known to be capable of trying a squeeze. That knowledge in turn on the part of the Blinds makes a squeeze less likely.
Re-raising has some merit against a laggy opener, even though 99 is heading towards the thin side.
If the original opener has a full stack and either of the blinds is known to love a squeeze, then the reraise probably reduces volatility, while the cold call increases it. But I wouldn't think that in the long run there'd be a lot of difference in EV. Arguing about it is more principle-based and can degenerate into "angels on the head of a pin". The least volatile decision is, of course, to fold. But if I had to put numbers on the decision here, I'd say that calling might have an average gain of a couple of bucks with a standard deviation of 12 bucks or so, while reraising might have an average gain of the same, with a standard deviation of slightly less if the blind likes a squeeze and slighty more if he doesn't.
So, suppose you reraise to $23. Passed round to UTG+1, who shoves for $100. Cold-caller folds. Do you call or fold? Should you have reraised more or less, or were you about right?
Alternatively, passed round to UTG+1 who folds, as does original cold-caller. Net result. Profit of $15 TYVM.
Suppose you cold-call. As it happens, it's passed round, and the flop comes 9h 8c 5d, giving you top set. There's $20 in the pot.
UTG+1 bets $8. Original cold-caller raises to $21.
Let's guess some ranges here. UTG looks weak, probably an AKo just giving it a go, but perhaps 77. 88, 55, is within the range, but that's only 12 combinations combined, far outnumbered by AK, AQs. An overpair would surely bet higher, but he might have played it poorly.
Raiser could be an overpair (KK would be my guess, because a lot of players do not reraise pre-flop with KK), or, of course, could be 76s, but that's only four combinations and one has to assume that the player would cold-call with that in a vulnerable spot, which most players at this level wouldn't. Finally (and, I think, most likely), there's 98s, 88 or 55 (13 combinations). Throw in another 12 combinations for hands that I haven't thought of.
So, do I cold-call here or reraise? And if I reraise, by how much?
There's $49 in the pot, it's $21 to me, and effective stacks are $86 at the short stack ($13 to call), $194 my stack ($21 to call) and $173 in main opponent's stack (he has bet the $21).
______________
