A PLO hand that went tits up:
Jun. 9th, 2005 07:27 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksHere's that Omaha hand that went ever so slightly wrong.
(Pot Limit Omaha) ($50 max buy-in, 25c-50c)
Powered by UltimateBet
Full table. Irrelevant players not included for brevity
shutermcgavin is at seat 2 with $55.60.
bob446 is at seat 3 with $49.50.
Birks is at seat 4 with $44.20.
Akilees is at seat 5 with $51.45.
Luca Brasi (BUTTON) is at seat 6 with $49.65.
Doe_Billy (SB) is at seat 7 with $85.80.
David3763 (BB) is at seat 8 with $41.85.
Birks: Kd 9s 2s Ad
A hand I will play in late position without a raise or a raise likely behind me.
Pre-flop:
shutermcgavin calls. bob446 calls. Birks calls. Akilees calls. Luca Brasi calls. Doe_Billy
calls. David3763 checks.
Flop 9d 8d 7s
a nut flush draw and top pair, but my hand isn't worth much at the moment with a straight possibly/probably out there. Any aggression from anywhere and I will probably walk away.
Doe_Billy checks. David3763 checks. shutermcgavin bets $1. bob446 calls. Birks calls. Akilees folds. Luca Brasi calls. Doe_Billy folds. David3763 folds.
I don't define a $1 bet as "aggression".
Turn 9d 8d 7s Kh
Top two pair and nut flush draw. No sign of that straight. I'm prepared to call a pot bet here.
shutermcgavin bets $4. bob446 calls. Birks calls.
I'm definitely prepared to call a $4 bet
Luca Brasi raises to $27.50. shutermcgavin folds. bob446 calls.
Ahh shit. This is so obviously the top straight from Luca that my only problem is working out Bob's hand. We've got to assume that he is on a flush draw as well and that this takes out two of my diamonds. Luca is a tight player and he wouldn't be in on a random JT. But he's willing to raise with big hands in late. QJT7 with one diamond? Seems a reasonable guess to me. I have a horrible feeling that I am not getting 25% equity here, but I can't see Luca definitely passing for his last $20 if a diamond hits A 40% chance that he or Bob would call?. That pushes up my equity a bit, but not much. No, I've got to fold this.
Birks calls.
Or maybe not. :-)
River 9d 8d 7s Kh 4h
bob446 checks. Birks checks. Luca Brasi goes all-in for $20.65. bob446 folds. Birks folds.
Summary:
$3 is raked from a pot of $94.
Luca Brasi wins $91.
Bob later said that he had "millions of draws". In fact he had 7d Td a king and a rag. He had two sevens and one diamond (Luca had the Jack of diamonds, he said) to win.
Running this through Pokercalc, my equity comes out at 22.2%. I'm a lot better off than Bob (8%), but Luca played it spot on. checked and called flop, checked and raised river with nuts and a blocker. If I had known he was capable of that, I wouldn't have put in the $4!
So what's my negative EV on this?
Let's assume Luca folds if I hit my diamond, but that Bob calls (hell, he's in there with a diamond draw).
That means in 100 hands I lose 78 lots of $27.50, (=$2,145) and in 22 hands I win $83 (the $63 profit on the call, plus $20 from Bob calling my river bet). That comes to $1,859, making a negative EV of $2.86 a hand.
Knew I should have folded. Instincts right again!
However, I've just read on Gutshot how Richard Oakley played an Omaha hand when he flopped a set of sevens (in a $200 max buy in game). Miros (Bill Purle) summed up Richard's play fairly succinctly (the gist being the word "awful"). It gives me hope for the higher level games after all.
(Pot Limit Omaha) ($50 max buy-in, 25c-50c)
Powered by UltimateBet
Full table. Irrelevant players not included for brevity
shutermcgavin is at seat 2 with $55.60.
bob446 is at seat 3 with $49.50.
Birks is at seat 4 with $44.20.
Akilees is at seat 5 with $51.45.
Luca Brasi (BUTTON) is at seat 6 with $49.65.
Doe_Billy (SB) is at seat 7 with $85.80.
David3763 (BB) is at seat 8 with $41.85.
Birks: Kd 9s 2s Ad
A hand I will play in late position without a raise or a raise likely behind me.
Pre-flop:
shutermcgavin calls. bob446 calls. Birks calls. Akilees calls. Luca Brasi calls. Doe_Billy
calls. David3763 checks.
Flop 9d 8d 7s
a nut flush draw and top pair, but my hand isn't worth much at the moment with a straight possibly/probably out there. Any aggression from anywhere and I will probably walk away.
Doe_Billy checks. David3763 checks. shutermcgavin bets $1. bob446 calls. Birks calls. Akilees folds. Luca Brasi calls. Doe_Billy folds. David3763 folds.
I don't define a $1 bet as "aggression".
Turn 9d 8d 7s Kh
Top two pair and nut flush draw. No sign of that straight. I'm prepared to call a pot bet here.
shutermcgavin bets $4. bob446 calls. Birks calls.
I'm definitely prepared to call a $4 bet
Luca Brasi raises to $27.50. shutermcgavin folds. bob446 calls.
Ahh shit. This is so obviously the top straight from Luca that my only problem is working out Bob's hand. We've got to assume that he is on a flush draw as well and that this takes out two of my diamonds. Luca is a tight player and he wouldn't be in on a random JT. But he's willing to raise with big hands in late. QJT7 with one diamond? Seems a reasonable guess to me. I have a horrible feeling that I am not getting 25% equity here, but I can't see Luca definitely passing for his last $20 if a diamond hits A 40% chance that he or Bob would call?. That pushes up my equity a bit, but not much. No, I've got to fold this.
Birks calls.
Or maybe not. :-)
River 9d 8d 7s Kh 4h
bob446 checks. Birks checks. Luca Brasi goes all-in for $20.65. bob446 folds. Birks folds.
Summary:
$3 is raked from a pot of $94.
Luca Brasi wins $91.
Bob later said that he had "millions of draws". In fact he had 7d Td a king and a rag. He had two sevens and one diamond (Luca had the Jack of diamonds, he said) to win.
Running this through Pokercalc, my equity comes out at 22.2%. I'm a lot better off than Bob (8%), but Luca played it spot on. checked and called flop, checked and raised river with nuts and a blocker. If I had known he was capable of that, I wouldn't have put in the $4!
So what's my negative EV on this?
Let's assume Luca folds if I hit my diamond, but that Bob calls (hell, he's in there with a diamond draw).
That means in 100 hands I lose 78 lots of $27.50, (=$2,145) and in 22 hands I win $83 (the $63 profit on the call, plus $20 from Bob calling my river bet). That comes to $1,859, making a negative EV of $2.86 a hand.
Knew I should have folded. Instincts right again!
However, I've just read on Gutshot how Richard Oakley played an Omaha hand when he flopped a set of sevens (in a $200 max buy in game). Miros (Bill Purle) summed up Richard's play fairly succinctly (the gist being the word "awful"). It gives me hope for the higher level games after all.
Bob's extra outs
Date: 2005-06-10 08:23 am (UTC)Re: Bob's extra outs
Date: 2005-06-10 08:43 am (UTC)