A Limit hand
Jul. 8th, 2005 11:40 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksI hate slow-playing these days. Even when I know that it's probably right (and it's right a lot less than people think), whenever I try it, it seems to go belly-up. Here's another classic. Trying to work off a bonus on Ultimate (although I sometimes wonder why I bother...) this cropped up. I have no idea what possessed me to not hold down that button that says RAISE RAISE RAISE YOU FOOL!!!!, but I didn't, and I paid the price. I'll try to do some EV on it after:
$3/$6 Hold'em Kill
Powered by UltimateBet
hottip is at seat 0 with $237.75.
bear dog is at seat 1 with $370.50.
peterpilot is at seat 2 with $147.
Big_Otis is at seat 3 with $91.
Birks is at seat 4 with $379.
sheckyeichman is at seat 5 with $301.50.
Emily Erin is at seat 6 with $203.
KidVegas99 is at seat 7 with $196.
pelo24 is at seat 8 with $61.50.
vegasprince is at seat 9 with $182.50.
The button is at seat 2.
The kill game is not active.
Birks posts the small blind of $1.
sheckyeichman posts the big blind of $3.
Birks: 9s 9h
Pre-flop:
Emily Erin folds. KidVegas99 folds. pelo24 folds. vegasprince folds. hottip calls. bear dog folds. peterpilot folds. Birks raises to $6. sheckyeichman folds. hottip calls.
There is absolutely no point in not raising 99 in this position, even though you see a lot of the journeymen multi-table $5-$10 "pros" doing just that.
Flop Ah 7c 9d
Birks checks. hottip checks.
What am I thinking? The guy is obviously passive because he has limped and not reraised my raise. So I am punting that he has Ace-small suited. Given the other range of hands that he could have (including the very dangerous JT), a check from me here is just nuts. He checks behind me, which probably puts him on KQ, KJ, maybe KTs, a small to medium pair.
Turn (board: Ah 7c 9d 8c):
Birks bets $6. hottip calls.
So, now I decide to bet when, if he does have JT, I am losing. However, that said, the bet is still correct. There are many more hands he could have that are losing than are winning.
River (board: Ah 7c 9d 8c 5h):
Birks bets $6. hottip raises to $12.
Birks calls.
The bet is stupid. The call less so.
hottip shows 6c 6d.
hottip has 6c 7c 9d 8c 5h: straight, nine high.
Birks mucks cards.
$2.50 is raked from a pot of $51.
hottip wins $48.50 with straight, nine high.
So, how does the EV on this work out? As with much HE Limit, you have to make many assumptions (and making roughly the right assumptions more often than you make wrong assumptions is what separates winners from losers).
To simplify things, lets assume opponent will always bet Ax, will call my CR on the turn and will call my bet on the river.
Let's also assume that he will fold KQ, KJ, Kxs or any other non-paired hand without an Ace, and that he will also fold these hands on turn no matter what happens. Let's assume that his pairs range from 2s to 8s and that he will call a single bet on the flop with any of these, and then fold without improvement.
So, the question is, how many times do I lose my "certain" gain of the $15 pot by checking? And how many times to I gain more?
Most of the time it will make no difference. A donkey card comes on the turn. I bet, and he folds.
When he has a pair that fails to improve, I cost myself $3. About 50% of the time, I reckon. Equals minus $1.50
About 5% of the time he will improve a hand that he would have folded, and call me on turn (+$10). And about half that time he will also call me on river (+$20). That equals plus 75c.
But of that subsection, he will occasionally improve to beat me (as in this case). It's probably no more than 1% of all the hands (probably less), but this turns a gain of $15 into a loss of $$24, a $40 swing, or another 40c negative.
So my EV from checking here against a passive opponent is a whopping minus $1.15 a hand, by my reckoning. If I play perfectly on subsequent streets, I can probably bring this back down to 90c or thereabouts, still equal to a a seventh of a big bet.
Dreadful. Dreadful.
Ultimate then decided to kick me in the teeth on a flop of 6-5-4 two hearts and I had T7 of hearts in last position. Needless to say I raised the bet from UTG and one passive limper (at a higher level this would just generate a reraise from UTG, but not with these players). Turn brings a heart. Feeling gun shy and anticipating a heart on the river or fearing a higher flush from the bettor, I flat call the bet from UTG and the call from the passive player on my right.
River is a dog. UTG bets again, player on my right calls, as do I.
Bettor shows two pair, and player on my right shows King flush. I'd like to say that he was limping just to bring me in as well, but he almost certainly wasn't. The guy was just incredibly passive and conservative and was genuinely scared of the ace flush.
Oh well, I suppose that I had failed to raise with the ten flush, so maybe I was nearly as guilty. Gun-shy! Hell, if you are going to be subject to bundles of things going wrong, you might as well have it happen at $3-$6 rather than $25-$30...
Oh, and as an afterthought and unabashedly using hindsightitis, in the hand mentioned above, I probably lost $3 less than I would have if I had played it properly (although I would have got back $6 of that if I had correctly checked the river). He's going to call my flop bet, then the turn gives him a straight draw, so he won't be going anywhere, and on the river, blaah, all over.
My equity on the flop was a mere 96.67%, given the cards that were out, so I suppose that one could almost argue that the slow-play was right, but I prefer to trust my EV calculations. The slow-play only works (has a positive EV) if your opponent has a reasonable chance of improving to a second-best hand and little to no chance of improving to a hand that beats you. Although in this case the first criterion is fulfilled (he has little to no chance of drawing to beat me) under the second criterion it fails abysmally, since he has little to no chance of improving to a good-but-still-losing second-best hand. My best EV is to bet, get him to see one more card, and then get him to fold the turn.
$3/$6 Hold'em Kill
Powered by UltimateBet
hottip is at seat 0 with $237.75.
bear dog is at seat 1 with $370.50.
peterpilot is at seat 2 with $147.
Big_Otis is at seat 3 with $91.
Birks is at seat 4 with $379.
sheckyeichman is at seat 5 with $301.50.
Emily Erin is at seat 6 with $203.
KidVegas99 is at seat 7 with $196.
pelo24 is at seat 8 with $61.50.
vegasprince is at seat 9 with $182.50.
The button is at seat 2.
The kill game is not active.
Birks posts the small blind of $1.
sheckyeichman posts the big blind of $3.
Birks: 9s 9h
Pre-flop:
Emily Erin folds. KidVegas99 folds. pelo24 folds. vegasprince folds. hottip calls. bear dog folds. peterpilot folds. Birks raises to $6. sheckyeichman folds. hottip calls.
There is absolutely no point in not raising 99 in this position, even though you see a lot of the journeymen multi-table $5-$10 "pros" doing just that.
Flop Ah 7c 9d
Birks checks. hottip checks.
What am I thinking? The guy is obviously passive because he has limped and not reraised my raise. So I am punting that he has Ace-small suited. Given the other range of hands that he could have (including the very dangerous JT), a check from me here is just nuts. He checks behind me, which probably puts him on KQ, KJ, maybe KTs, a small to medium pair.
Turn (board: Ah 7c 9d 8c):
Birks bets $6. hottip calls.
So, now I decide to bet when, if he does have JT, I am losing. However, that said, the bet is still correct. There are many more hands he could have that are losing than are winning.
River (board: Ah 7c 9d 8c 5h):
Birks bets $6. hottip raises to $12.
Birks calls.
The bet is stupid. The call less so.
hottip shows 6c 6d.
hottip has 6c 7c 9d 8c 5h: straight, nine high.
Birks mucks cards.
$2.50 is raked from a pot of $51.
hottip wins $48.50 with straight, nine high.
So, how does the EV on this work out? As with much HE Limit, you have to make many assumptions (and making roughly the right assumptions more often than you make wrong assumptions is what separates winners from losers).
To simplify things, lets assume opponent will always bet Ax, will call my CR on the turn and will call my bet on the river.
Let's also assume that he will fold KQ, KJ, Kxs or any other non-paired hand without an Ace, and that he will also fold these hands on turn no matter what happens. Let's assume that his pairs range from 2s to 8s and that he will call a single bet on the flop with any of these, and then fold without improvement.
So, the question is, how many times do I lose my "certain" gain of the $15 pot by checking? And how many times to I gain more?
Most of the time it will make no difference. A donkey card comes on the turn. I bet, and he folds.
When he has a pair that fails to improve, I cost myself $3. About 50% of the time, I reckon. Equals minus $1.50
About 5% of the time he will improve a hand that he would have folded, and call me on turn (+$10). And about half that time he will also call me on river (+$20). That equals plus 75c.
But of that subsection, he will occasionally improve to beat me (as in this case). It's probably no more than 1% of all the hands (probably less), but this turns a gain of $15 into a loss of $$24, a $40 swing, or another 40c negative.
So my EV from checking here against a passive opponent is a whopping minus $1.15 a hand, by my reckoning. If I play perfectly on subsequent streets, I can probably bring this back down to 90c or thereabouts, still equal to a a seventh of a big bet.
Dreadful. Dreadful.
Ultimate then decided to kick me in the teeth on a flop of 6-5-4 two hearts and I had T7 of hearts in last position. Needless to say I raised the bet from UTG and one passive limper (at a higher level this would just generate a reraise from UTG, but not with these players). Turn brings a heart. Feeling gun shy and anticipating a heart on the river or fearing a higher flush from the bettor, I flat call the bet from UTG and the call from the passive player on my right.
River is a dog. UTG bets again, player on my right calls, as do I.
Bettor shows two pair, and player on my right shows King flush. I'd like to say that he was limping just to bring me in as well, but he almost certainly wasn't. The guy was just incredibly passive and conservative and was genuinely scared of the ace flush.
Oh well, I suppose that I had failed to raise with the ten flush, so maybe I was nearly as guilty. Gun-shy! Hell, if you are going to be subject to bundles of things going wrong, you might as well have it happen at $3-$6 rather than $25-$30...
Oh, and as an afterthought and unabashedly using hindsightitis, in the hand mentioned above, I probably lost $3 less than I would have if I had played it properly (although I would have got back $6 of that if I had correctly checked the river). He's going to call my flop bet, then the turn gives him a straight draw, so he won't be going anywhere, and on the river, blaah, all over.
My equity on the flop was a mere 96.67%, given the cards that were out, so I suppose that one could almost argue that the slow-play was right, but I prefer to trust my EV calculations. The slow-play only works (has a positive EV) if your opponent has a reasonable chance of improving to a second-best hand and little to no chance of improving to a hand that beats you. Although in this case the first criterion is fulfilled (he has little to no chance of drawing to beat me) under the second criterion it fails abysmally, since he has little to no chance of improving to a good-but-still-losing second-best hand. My best EV is to bet, get him to see one more card, and then get him to fold the turn.
