A PLO hand

[peterbirks]

I was behind when I got myself all in here.

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MrEmmGee is at seat 0 with $120.50.
Jmas is at seat 1 with $33.10.
HugePeter is at seat 2 with $53.55.
Birks is at seat 3 with $47.85.
ZONE2005 is at seat 4 with $56.70.
loose_action is at seat 5 with $50.
mshalen is at seat 6 with $41.50.
Flexi Digit is at seat 7 with $17.75.
Cariola212 is at seat 8 with $47.
oneforluck is at seat 9 with $48.25.
The button is at seat 2.

Birks posts the small blind of $.25.
ZONE2005 posts the big blind of $.50.

Birks: 7c 8c 9h 7h

Pre-flop:

mshalen folds. Flexi Digit calls. Cariola212 folds. oneforluck folds. MrEmmGee calls. Jmas calls. HugePeter folds. Birks calls. ZONE2005 checks.

I'd consider raising with this in late position. With 9987 DS I definitely would.

Flop (board: 6c 4c 7d):

Top set, flush draw, gutshot straight draw with a nine as back-up, gutshot straight flush draw. On the downside, I could be behind at the moment and behind on my flush draws.

Before looking below, what do you think my equity is likely to be against my opponent's range? He is competent, capable of complex plays.

Birks checks. ZONE2005 checks. Flexi Digit bets $.50. MrEmmGee raises to $4. Jmas folds. Birks re-raises to $15. ZONE2005 folds. Flexi Digit folds. MrEmmGee re-raises to $48. Birks goes all-in for $47.35. MrEmmGee is returned $.65
(uncalled).

Was this right? MrEmGee was the best player at the table, which made me slightly uncomfortable. He was unlikely to raise with a naked straight. On the other hand, if I flat call, I could be facing two oponents rather than one and have even less idea where I was. I suspect a flat call might be right, but I feel that I am better off with a head-to-head against EmmGee. Note that FlexiDigit was short-stacked.

Turn (board: 6c 4c 7d 5d): Gives me the top straight. My money would be going all-in here anyway.

River (board: 6c 4c 7d 5d 8h):

MrEmmGee shows 5c 8s 9c Js.
MrEmmGee has 5c 9c 6c 7d 8h: straight, nine high.
Birks shows 7c 8c 9h 7h.
Birks has 7c 9h 6c 5d 8h: straight, nine high.

If I flat-call the raise, I might get flexi digit in. I probably make an extra two bucks on the deal.

Without using pokercalc, what do you reckon my equity is? Was my play wrong, given that my pot equity was less than 50%?

Comments

[ribmeister.livejournal.com]

If you're going all in and calling 1 bet on the turn to do it, you only need 33% equity. Given the range of hands your opponent will have and be betting with a raise on the flop is usually correct rather than a fold. If he has 58, then he needs one of his other 2 cards atleast to be a club to possibly have a better flush draw than you. If he has a bigger flush draw, he likely doesn't have your top set beat. Whatever happens if you do shove your hand, you will have a live draw that is atleast 33% heads up. On the turn, that's a shover if you're first to act, put pressure on the made hand to now fold his non nut hand, plus you may be good anyway and be freerolling. You cannot fold that flop without a very very good read on your opponent. And at the limits you're playing at, people shove a whole lot less.

[ribmeister.livejournal.com]

When Mr EmmGee reraises for $48, its $32 to call with i'm guessing around $100 to win. You're equity with that hand is going to be atleast 32% so it's an automatic call. Your raise to $15 on the flop is good considering you will be favourite against a naked straight, plus the added fold equity if the guy has the idiot end straight. At no point was any of your bets technically incorrect and your last call was the easiest and mathematically correct.

33% equity

[peterbirks.livejournal.com]

Yes, sorry, of course my $48 call only needs 33% equity. I was a bit tired last night!

So the only doubtful bet is the shove of the first $15, on the grounds that I might want two opponents all-in (one short-stacked, one deep-stacked).

Flop Play

[(Anonymous)]

Peter,

You really can't ever calculate your equity in a hand accurately without knowing his exact hand although you can ballpark it, but when you have a set, a flush draw and an OESD (and you did have an OESD not a gutshot) you simply have to get it all in the middle as fast as you can. You want to raise and reraise the flop to try to get out higher flush draws that have nothing else going for them and also so you don't have to make any tough decisions later. Although the villain *should* have the made straight on the flop, I've seen lots of players gun it out on low flops like this with only a set, and you don't want to be bluffed out if the money is deep so get it allin while you can.

A note on villain and your characterization of him. While he might play postflop well considering his hand, good players do not routinely play the hand he had on the button let alone before it. The gap between the J and 5 is too wide as well as the gap between the top card and the next one, and any flush made likely won't be the best if there is a lot of action. Granted that good players should be able to recognize where they are at with regular opponents and avoid certain traps, but if that is representative of his hand selection criteria then he will often enough find himself in trap situations versus good players although perhaps the action he gets from weak players makes up for that to some degree.

BluffTHIS!

Re: Flop Play

[peterbirks.livejournal.com]

Well, "getting it all in" was my thought as well. An argument in favour of reraising $15 (which I didn't think of at the time) is that flexi digit might have a bare non-nut flush draw that I want to push out, because it beats me. Good point.

I think that EmGee relies a lot on his post-flop play with position to outplay weaker opponents, which perhaps explains his liberality with calls. I agree. I don't like the 589J combination, even double-suited. 789K or 89JK perhaps.

Pete