A little tourney puzzler:

[peterbirks]

There are 18 players left out of 85 starting (with 1,500 chips apiece). We are at level 8 (10 minute rounds). The last five hands have consisted of one player going all-in and everyone else folding.

Blinds are 300/600 with a 75 ante and there is about three minutes left on clock before 400/800 with 100 ante.

Seat 1: DaffyDuck (11240 in chips)
Seat 2: cra5h (7495 in chips)
Seat 3: docean (9640 in chips)
Seat 5: Acheron (4195 in chips)
Seat 6: sucrose (7580 in chips)
Seat 7: kpax (6630 in chips)
Seat 8: Spig (5470 in chips)
Seat 9: Photo. (6275 in chips)
Seat 10: _PJB_ (3645 in chips)


----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to _PJB_ [As Ac]
kpax: folds
Spig: folds
Photo.: folds

Plan The Play.

Comments

[jellymillion.livejournal.com]

Assuming you're still several places out of the money, you have something like 2 rounds left to acquire some chips. If the table's starting to run scared, then an all-in is likely only going to buy you another round, which may let you sneak into the money, but that's not likely to represent much of an hourly rate.

Much as I hate slow-playing Aces, I think this is the time. Although I'd be planning on getting all-in somewhere in the hand, I think this is one of those situations where you're going to have to hope someone comes along and catches up a bit. The "good" news is that as short stack on the table you at least have the potential to double through.

All the above is assuming you've been playing at least moderately tight. If, on the other hand, you've been spraying it about then a brisk all-in might attract someone: no-one can go broke calling you and there are six left to act: there's perhaps a 30% chance (back of fag packet calculation) that one of them has a pair - they may just fancy a race.

I'm getting more aware of table image as I go on. Still early days figuring out how to project something other than tight-aggressive though, which is probably wh my play is weaker in ring games than tournaments and I do better in SNGs than in multis where I need to get moved fairly regularly.

we'll see if anyone else has a view

[peterbirks.livejournal.com]

Let's leave it 24 hours or so to see if anyone else is still reading this who has a view. Then we can head on to part two....

Yes, I should have mentioned table image. I put in the bit about the raises not being called for the previous five hands. My own table image here was indeed moderately tight - none of these raises every other hand.

The other point that might be mentioned is that, since it is getting near the bubble, most of the players left are at least moderately competent, so any "con the mug plays" that might work early on are unlikely to work here.

Pete

Re: we'll see if anyone else has a view

[slowjoe.livejournal.com]

Bet 3xBB (1800) and hope for a caller/resteal? It is conveniently half your stack, so just at the edge of reasonable action.

You are in sufficiently early position that a flat call might work with 6 players behind yet to act.

It depends on what your previous behaviour has been. If you've been one of the "all-in if I open a pot" guys up to now, ignore the above.

Re: we'll see if anyone else has a view

[jellymillion.livejournal.com]

I'm taking it as a sign of either (a) increasing maturity at the game or (b) world-weariness (could be both I suppose) that my immediate thought when I see AA is how to get "just enough" action so I can extract some value from the situation. At one time I only seemed to get them in mid- to late-position after a coupe of limps and a raise. Lump it in, get called, double (and a bit) through, easy game. These days it seems to be in the blinds or close to them with an unopened pot and I'm hoping that a raise might look like a steal. Possibly a function of playing in slightly tougher games. I'm often caught between the stool of wanting to make sure I win something and the stool of considering slow-playing for the big win and have to be on guard to make sure I don't plummet gracelessly to the floor somewhere in between.

I'd be afraid that the 3BB trying-to-look-like-a-steal raise might just be suggesting the opposite: you're pretty much pot-committed with it anyway, after all. When we take into account the assumption of reasonableness on the part of the other players, the idea that you're going to be read as really really wanting to be called starts to gain weight in my view.

Yup, I think I'm still 60-40 in favour of the slow-play, if only because I think you should be trying to win the thing rather than sneak into the money.