A Limit Hand
Jul. 3rd, 2006 08:48 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksHere’s a trivial Limit Hold’em situation that crops up not infrequently. Your opponent sees flop 33% of the time and raises 11%, on your realatively small sample size. His post-flop aggression factor is 1.1, about average for $2-$4. I think that it’s imporant to remember that this is a $2-$4 player, possibly marginally profitable.
There are two interesting decisions, one on the turn and one on the river.
$2/$4 Texas Hold'em - Monday, July 03, 14:48
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Yack_ ( $149.36 )
Seat 4: Knall ( $124.08 )
Seat 7: texlex ( $189.75 )
Seat 8: JC_Airdog44 ( $105.75 )
Seat 6: Birks ( $202.50 )
Seat 9: tml1689 ( $103.50 )
Seat 10: thesemibluff ( $142.50 )
Seat 5: Villain ( $61 )
Seat 2: KobeBeef111 ( $90.50 )
Seat 3: sperl29 ( $69 )
Villain posts small blind [$1].
Birks posts big blind [$2].
Dealt to Birks [ A◊ 2♠ ]
All fold to...
Villain calls [$1].
Birks raises [$2].
Villain calls [$2].
I see nothing wrong with the raise of a $2-$4 limper in the small blind head to head. Most of them are ABC players and not very good in these situations. They mainly tend to under-compensate, although some players go too far the other way. We’ll assume that he’s an under-compensator, which basically means that he probably has a calling hand of sorts from the top end, down to anything like Q6, J8, T8, 98. Something like that.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Q♠, 2◊, 5♠ ]
Villain checks.
Birks bets [$2].
Villain calls [$2].
A pair of deuces is fine to bet here with just one picture. We can go into the maths later.
** Dealing Turn ** [ K◊ ]
Villain checks.
Birks checks.
I’m not so sure about this one. I might well be behind here now. Basically I should be betting if I think the chance that I am in front plus the chance that my opponent will fold is greater than 50%. Once again, we can do the maths later.
** Dealing River ** [ 6♠ ]
Villain bets [$4].
So, do I call? One of the reasons that I chose to check the turn was because I had decided to call the river no matter what. In that sense, the decision is trivial. If I had bet the turn and SB had called, and then he bets out the river, I am in a situation where I am getting better odds for my call, but I am significantly more likely to be losing at this level. In other words, a call by me on the river after a bet from me and a call from opponent on the turn might well be wrong. I think that opponent is betting any hand on the river folowing my sign of weakness on the turn. This makes the maths easier. There’s $16 in there and it will cost me $4 to call. After the rake, I’m getting 15 to 4. All I have to do is calculate the number hands he might have and compare them to the hands that beat me, and then make my decision.
Yeah, right, I’m going to do that when three-tabling. This is where gut-instinct and experience comes into play. My feeling here is that 15-4 is good enough.
Birks calls [$4].
Villain shows [ J♣, T♠ ] high card king.
Birks shows [ A◊, 2♠ ] a pair of twos.
Birks wins $19 from the main pot with a pair of twos.
Note that if I bet the turn as the cards lie, opponent may well call (incorrectly). I suspect that he would then check having missed, but there’s a chance (say, 10%?) that he will desperation bet the river. I then have to decide whether to call, getting odds of 23-to-4. I probably do call, but I may be in trouble.
The other point against betting the turn is that, if opponent has a King, he will most likely check-raise me here, in which case I have to pitch my hand. If he has the King and then bets river and I call, I lose no more than if I bet the turn, but I have the added chance of hitting one of my five outs.
_______
Now, the maths.
Let's put opponent on these hands: A5 to A2, KJo to K2, K9s to K2s, QJo to Q2o, Q9s to Q2s, JT to J5, T9 to T8, T7s, 98, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s. Any pair 6s or below. That's about 630 different hands.
On the flop of Q25, he's beating me with just over 200 of them. Randomly speaking, I'm 67% likely to be in front. And he checks. This probably increases the likelihood of me being in front, but by an unknown amount. Whatever, a bet is clearly correct.
On the turn, things are tougher. I'm now losing to about 350 of his possible hands, meaning that I'm 14-to-10 to be losing. However, he didn't check-raise me on the flop. However, I still think that I am likely behind, probably in the region of 55% to 58%. So I check the turn.
The river is a six. In a sense I like this card, in that, of the hands that he is likely to have that are beating me, this card is not that likely to help him. Either I was losing anyway and now I'm losing more, or I'm winning. Let's suppose 400 of his 630 hands are now beating me. Well, that's giving me 230/630, or 36%, whereas the pot odds require me only to be winning 27% of the time. Even if opponent will only bet 80% of the time if he misses (so we have to take 46 off the 230), I'm still getting 31% for my call.
Now, what about the odds if I bet the turn and he calls? This isn't so good when he bets on the river. Even though I am getting better pot odds (I only need to be right 17% of the time). In fact my river decision is probably card dependent, and in this case I might call. But I'm a lot less happy about the maths and I suspect that the EV is less than for my call when I check the turn.
+++++++++++++
There are two interesting decisions, one on the turn and one on the river.
$2/$4 Texas Hold'em - Monday, July 03, 14:48
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Yack_ ( $149.36 )
Seat 4: Knall ( $124.08 )
Seat 7: texlex ( $189.75 )
Seat 8: JC_Airdog44 ( $105.75 )
Seat 6: Birks ( $202.50 )
Seat 9: tml1689 ( $103.50 )
Seat 10: thesemibluff ( $142.50 )
Seat 5: Villain ( $61 )
Seat 2: KobeBeef111 ( $90.50 )
Seat 3: sperl29 ( $69 )
Villain posts small blind [$1].
Birks posts big blind [$2].
Dealt to Birks [ A◊ 2♠ ]
All fold to...
Villain calls [$1].
Birks raises [$2].
Villain calls [$2].
I see nothing wrong with the raise of a $2-$4 limper in the small blind head to head. Most of them are ABC players and not very good in these situations. They mainly tend to under-compensate, although some players go too far the other way. We’ll assume that he’s an under-compensator, which basically means that he probably has a calling hand of sorts from the top end, down to anything like Q6, J8, T8, 98. Something like that.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Q♠, 2◊, 5♠ ]
Villain checks.
Birks bets [$2].
Villain calls [$2].
A pair of deuces is fine to bet here with just one picture. We can go into the maths later.
** Dealing Turn ** [ K◊ ]
Villain checks.
Birks checks.
I’m not so sure about this one. I might well be behind here now. Basically I should be betting if I think the chance that I am in front plus the chance that my opponent will fold is greater than 50%. Once again, we can do the maths later.
** Dealing River ** [ 6♠ ]
Villain bets [$4].
So, do I call? One of the reasons that I chose to check the turn was because I had decided to call the river no matter what. In that sense, the decision is trivial. If I had bet the turn and SB had called, and then he bets out the river, I am in a situation where I am getting better odds for my call, but I am significantly more likely to be losing at this level. In other words, a call by me on the river after a bet from me and a call from opponent on the turn might well be wrong. I think that opponent is betting any hand on the river folowing my sign of weakness on the turn. This makes the maths easier. There’s $16 in there and it will cost me $4 to call. After the rake, I’m getting 15 to 4. All I have to do is calculate the number hands he might have and compare them to the hands that beat me, and then make my decision.
Yeah, right, I’m going to do that when three-tabling. This is where gut-instinct and experience comes into play. My feeling here is that 15-4 is good enough.
Birks calls [$4].
Villain shows [ J♣, T♠ ] high card king.
Birks shows [ A◊, 2♠ ] a pair of twos.
Birks wins $19 from the main pot with a pair of twos.
Note that if I bet the turn as the cards lie, opponent may well call (incorrectly). I suspect that he would then check having missed, but there’s a chance (say, 10%?) that he will desperation bet the river. I then have to decide whether to call, getting odds of 23-to-4. I probably do call, but I may be in trouble.
The other point against betting the turn is that, if opponent has a King, he will most likely check-raise me here, in which case I have to pitch my hand. If he has the King and then bets river and I call, I lose no more than if I bet the turn, but I have the added chance of hitting one of my five outs.
_______
Now, the maths.
Let's put opponent on these hands: A5 to A2, KJo to K2, K9s to K2s, QJo to Q2o, Q9s to Q2s, JT to J5, T9 to T8, T7s, 98, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s. Any pair 6s or below. That's about 630 different hands.
On the flop of Q25, he's beating me with just over 200 of them. Randomly speaking, I'm 67% likely to be in front. And he checks. This probably increases the likelihood of me being in front, but by an unknown amount. Whatever, a bet is clearly correct.
On the turn, things are tougher. I'm now losing to about 350 of his possible hands, meaning that I'm 14-to-10 to be losing. However, he didn't check-raise me on the flop. However, I still think that I am likely behind, probably in the region of 55% to 58%. So I check the turn.
The river is a six. In a sense I like this card, in that, of the hands that he is likely to have that are beating me, this card is not that likely to help him. Either I was losing anyway and now I'm losing more, or I'm winning. Let's suppose 400 of his 630 hands are now beating me. Well, that's giving me 230/630, or 36%, whereas the pot odds require me only to be winning 27% of the time. Even if opponent will only bet 80% of the time if he misses (so we have to take 46 off the 230), I'm still getting 31% for my call.
Now, what about the odds if I bet the turn and he calls? This isn't so good when he bets on the river. Even though I am getting better pot odds (I only need to be right 17% of the time). In fact my river decision is probably card dependent, and in this case I might call. But I'm a lot less happy about the maths and I suspect that the EV is less than for my call when I check the turn.
+++++++++++++
