peterbirks: (Default)
[personal profile] peterbirks
I suppose it could only be a matter of time before other parts of my company's vast publishing sprawl got to hear of my online exploits. The legal and tax division want to talk to me about online gambling, presumably with a view to commissioning a pice. Oh bollocks. It's not thatthe money isn't nice (money for old rope, if truth be told), it's just the giving up of a weekend and the admin involved in chasing up payment. I'm not very good at submitting invoices and chasing up payments. I'd make a crap businessman.

++++++

End of the road for Gryko, and I'll be interested to hear what some of the peasants make of the way he went out. Here's the report I have.

With blinds and antes making the pot up to about 90K, the chip leader makes it 100K to go with a raise under the gun. Richard, on the button, pushes all in for 920K. Jamie Gold calls with AK and Richard turns over J3. The AK holds up and Richard is eliminated.

A moment of madness? Not really. Look at what might have been going through Richard's mind.

1) Jamie has probably been doing this a lot, using his chip lead
2) While 100K is not much of his stack, a million is a reasonable percentage of it
3) It's near the end of the day. Most people are probably only making big bets with premium hands
4) Richard is on the button, and he knows that Jamie knows it. With something like, say, J3s, a call might make some sense, but an all-in raise when such a raise isn't necessary against the chip leader probably means a very big hand that wants a call.

Put all these together and Ricahrd probably reckons he has a fold equity of about 80% here.
Of the remaining 20%, Gold will have two high cards about 70% of the time, and a pair 30% of the time. He'll probably only have an overpair 5% of the time.

There is nearly 200K in the pot, giving Richard a 20% RoE if Jamie folds.
If Jamie calls, Richard probably reckons he has an average 36% or thereabouts chance of winning and doubling through.

So, the all-in raise gives us an expected return of
Gold Folds: 200K x 0.8 = 160K
Gold calls, Gold loses: 1.0m x 0.36 x 0.2 = 72K
Gold calls, Gold wins: - 920K x 0.64 x 0.2= minus -118K

Giving an EV from the all-in raise of +124K.

Of course, the nonces will say "but his tournament life was at stake!" But you don't get to these positions in tournaments thinking like a scared prick.

Personally, I wouldn't have made the move, but I can understand why the move was made and, provided you accept that with 50 players left, chips held was fairly closely directly proportional to equity, then it only becomes a wrong play if Gold is very likely to call the reraise.

Suppose he's 80% likely to call:

Gold folds: 200K x 0.2 = 40K
Gold calls, GOld loses: 1.0m x 0.36 x 0.8 = 288K
Gold calls, Gold wins: -920K x 0.64 x 0.8 = -471K

That makes it an expected EV from this move of minus 143K.

From these numbers, it looks like the crossover point is around about 55%. If Gold is 55% (or more) likely to fold to the reraise, then Richard's reraise all-in has positive EV.

It will be interesting to see how many posters on various fora see it that way.

PJ

Date: 2006-08-08 05:49 am (UTC)
alanj: (Default)
From: [personal profile] alanj
Did Gryko post about the hand somewhere?

I don't know how risk-averse people are playing at the final few tables, but my friend Sabyl (who finished 56th) commented that there was much less scared play after the bubble burst. Other onlookers have commented on players being remarkably willing to risk going bust, and how rapidly players were being eliminated. Based on that I wouldn't count on the blinds playing scared.

But then, Gryko was at the table, I wasn't. Maybe he had a strong read on them as being scared, or maybe he even picked up an advance-action tell. I was startled at how many of those I was able to pick up, as a complete live-game newbie, during my brief WSOP experience.

Date: 2006-08-08 06:59 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peterbirks.livejournal.com
Gryko's post is in this thread, Alan, just above your original post.

PJ

Date: 2006-08-08 08:08 am (UTC)
alanj: (Default)
From: [personal profile] alanj
Ah, OK, I don't think that was there when I started writing my first comment.

If the guy truly was open-raising blind at every single opportunity, and had never called a reraise without a premium hand, it does seem like a prime resteal opportunity, and kudos to Gryko for fearlessly seizing it. That would indeed be an extreme example of bizarre table conditions.

Date: 2006-08-08 07:33 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peterbirks.livejournal.com
I just ran this hand on pokercalc, simulating that, UTG, Gold would raise only with the best 50% of hands, and would then call the reraise with the best 50% of those.

When Gold calls in this scenario, J3 off is 37%.

That gives EV of:
Gold folds 200k x 0.5 = +100k
Gold calls, wins: -920K x 0.63 x 0.5 = minus 290K
Gold calls, loses: +1m x 0.37 x 0.5 = +185k

If you add in, say, a 1% chance of one of the blinds waking up with a monster and calling (and winning), then Richard's play becomes fractionally minus EV under the "half the hands, call with the best half". As Richard said, he didn't think that this was the situation, but it's an interesting number to use as a base starting point if you are in a tournament and an aggressive player is doing the same kind of thing.

PJ

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