Two Hands

Oh well, I knew that I had been running well, particularly on Pacific, so it was with only a wry bit of regret that I said to myself "why do the bad breaks always seem to come at $200 buy-ins?"

It's true, $200 is a bok to me. Indeed, if it weren't for the fact that my nose bleeds every so often and I worry about lapsing into weak-tight mode (because, after all, the players are tricker), I'd be bashing straight in at $400 or even $600.

We started off the month with a hand where I actually thought that I had won it (all the money was in so I was concentrating elsewhere) and I had to rerun the hand to see how I could have conspired to lose the hand without a Jack coming on the river….

$200.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, February 01,
(Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: KopiteDE ( $196.00 USD )
Seat 2: borto5 ( $238.20 USD )
Seat 3: iljaseme ( $140.80 USD )
Seat 4: kitty67 ( $15.00 USD )
Seat 5: Hero ( $196.00 USD )
Seat 6: shaman82 ( $148.38 USD )
Seat 7: samuelc3 ( $65.40 USD )
Seat 8: Kornado ( $114.70 USD )
Seat 9: AKjump ( $83.00 USD )
Seat 10: Villain_1 ( $200.00 USD )

Hero posts small blind [$1.00 USD].
shaman82 posts big blind [$2.00 USD].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ A♠ A♡; ]
samuelc3 folds
Kornado folds
AKjump folds
Villain_1 raises [$4.00 USD]
KopiteDE folds
borto5 raises [$6.00 USD]
iljaseme folds
kitty67 folds
Hero raises [$9.00 USD]

I would normally put in a bit more than this, because I don't really want to see it three-handed with only $39 in the pot, But I'm getting a good feel for the game at the moment. Both these two guys are lively, and my mini-raise here might make it look that I am just joining in the fun.


shaman82 folds
Villain_1 raises [$25.00 USD]

I had a feeling that one of these two would put in another raise, although I anticipated something a bit bigger than this. So I have to move over to plan b and a half.

borto5 folds
Hero raises [$64.00 USD]

This gets the pot to about the right size — about $145 if villain calls.

Villain_1 calls [$45.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9♡;, 7♡;, 4◊; ]

Hero bets [$122.00 USD]

I am always shoving here.

Villain_1 calls [$122.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ T♣; ]

By this time I've only got half an eye on this table, so I just mutter to myself "no jack, please"

** Dealing River ** [ 8♠ ]



Villain_1 shows [J♡;, J◊; ]
Hero shows [A♠, A♡; ]
Villain_1 wins $396.00 USD from main pot

Oh, and no 8 either, apparently. Lol, not u, me, as they say.



I carried on playing, mainly because on one of the tables (this one) I knew that I was big plus EV. At the others, predominantly either standard Tags, a lot of hit or fold players, and some weak-tights (plus one all-in or fold short-stack player whose range was so well established that you can't make mistake against him) I felt that I was marginally plus EV. And (mea culpa) it's the beginning of the month, so, in a totally irrational accounting sense, that gave me longer to get out of any hole that I might find myself in.

*

$200.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, February 01,
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: AKjump ( $38.75 USD )
Seat 2: Aris13 ( $180.62 USD )
Seat 3: KopiteDE ( $359.15 USD )
Seat 4: Villain2 ( $200.00 USD )
Seat 5: eivsashark ( $681.84 USD )
Seat 6: __wrappit__ ( $197.40 USD )
Seat 7: Xmylly ( $339.85 USD )
Seat 8: zizzz ( $92.80 USD )
Seat 9: Hero ( $209.05 USD )
Seat 10: LOLA3758 ( $172.35 USD )
Xmylly posts small blind [$1.00 USD].
zizzz posts big blind [$2.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 5♣; 5♡; ]
Hero raises [$6.00 USD]

A wide range for me in this position, with hands this weak being fold/raise about 45/45, and a call 10% of the time.

LOLA3758 folds
AKjump folds
Aris13 folds
KopiteDE folds
Villain2 raises [$17.00 USD]

This is an odd-sized raise; and I don't know the guy. It's very marginal for me here. The stats I have on opponent make it a tight reraising range AA KK AKs maybe QQ (but perhaps he would flat-call the KK as well. Many players do, although I think that's horrific.


eivsashark folds
__wrappit__ folds
Xmylly folds
zizzz folds
Hero calls [$11.00 USD]


** Dealing Flop ** [ 6◊;, 4♠, 2♡; ]
Hero checks

I quite like a donk lead here against a certain type of opponent, but that is a less volatile play than checking.


Villain2 bets [$22.00 USD]

This guy sizes his bets well. I've got six outs here plus the chance that he gives up on the turn if he is AKs (also a not infrequent play). But I don't think he's putting me on 55 or 33. I'd be the first to admit that I haven't really played this like a star.

Hero calls [$22.00 USD]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 5♠ ]
Hero checks
Villain2 bets [$47.00 USD]
Hero raises [$170.05 USD]
Villain2 calls [$114.00 USD]

But I apppear to have got away with it.

** Dealing River ** [ K♣; ]
Villain2 shows [K◊;, A♣; ]
Hero shows [5♣;, 5♡; ]
Hero wins $408.05 USD from main pot


Even though the current win rate is unsustainable (made it to $44 an hour in January over 95 hours) I get the feeling that $20 an hour is sustainable, which is nice. Most of the "extra" compared with the first half of last year and even the back end of 2008 is from two areas:

1) Folding hands that many people would call coolers, but which I am convinced are beaten
2) More importantly (actually, much more importantly) Value-betting more thinly on the river in position rather than checking it down because I am scared of a check-raise. Sure, occasionaly the CR comes in, but the money that you win from the calls far far outweighs the money you lose from the CR. In addition, at this level, a CR bluff on the river is so rare as to be ignorable as a possibility. However, if and when I move higher, it's going to be a factor that requires more consideration.