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peterbirksI closed out my short FTSE position at 4pm yesterday for a £310 profit. Market was about 4110 when I shut it out. I'm looking to reopen short at 4240. Unfortunately I can't get into the IGIndex trading page at work (a mobile broadband system is becoming increasingly attractive) although the nice man did say that I could trade via the mobile phone interface (perhaps I should go for the Google IPhone or Palm Pre). Alternatively, there's always a phone call :-)
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A frequent occurrence in Hold'Em NL (particularly on Stars, where opponents tend to be slightly more aggressive and slightly more aware) is the famous "Jacks in early" nightmare.
A typical scnario:
Hero (UTG+2) , $100, gets JJ and raises pot to $3.50.
Villain, (also $100) sitting either immediately behind hero or one seat further to the left, quickly reraises to $13.50. Everyone else folds. Villain is a typical tag Stars plaler, about 18%/11%.
Plan the play.
First, just having the basic stats on Tag are not enough, (I don't play on Stars often enough to get a good hold on other players' numbers). What you really want are the player's Continuation bet frequency and his fold to check-raises frequency.
But, let's assume that we are running blind. We'll take a default assumption of 75% CBs in position and 60% folds to check-raises.
Preflop, do you fold, call, or re-reraise?
Four-betting with Jacks here is probably negative EV. If you reraise to $33 and get called, you are out of position with $67 in front of you and a $66 pot. There are worse spots than this, in that if the flop gives opponent a chance to make a mistake, you get the chance to put the money in first. In this sense the thought that you want a flop like T52 isn't that right. Because if you then shove, opponent will fold a worse hand (AK, AQs) and will call a better one (QQ+). A flop such as Axx or Kxx might get QQ to fold or (with Axx), KK to fold.
The Problem with four-betting is that if opponent then shoves pre-flop, you are getting 2-to-1 in a situation where at most half the time you will be 58% and at least half the time you will be 22%. If it's exactly 50-50, you are just right to call, but it rarely is. 70% overpair and 30% AK is a closer approximation in real life.
Folding isn't that dreadful. It's rare that you are going to have an easy decision post-flop (Jxx flop is it, to be honest). If opponent is a maniac and you know that calling his bet post-flop is likely to be plus EV, then a fold is dreadful. Similarly if opponent is v passive post flop a fold is dreadful. And finally if you know that player will pay you off if you hit your set, then a fold is dreadful. But against a standard competent Stars player, there's nothing wrong with giving up. You probably aren't getting the required implied odds, which means that you have to win some of the time with just JJ. That "some" percentage depends on or far below you are in terms of implied odds.
Calling creates the most difficult decisions post flop, but the game is not about avoiding difficult decisions post-flop. If it was, you would just shove with AA preflop. You don't. You deliberately make things harder for yourself because you know that this is better EV. So, with JJ, the more you can accurately define your opponents' range (where, paradoxically "narrowing" the range includes "he would do this with anything") the more you can be inclined to call rather than fold or four-bet.
So, suppose you choose to call. The board then comes as follows
a) Qxx rainbow (dry, one overcard)
b) KQx rainbow (dry, two overcards)
c) xxx rainbow (dry, no overcards)
d) QTx double-suited (wet, one overcard)
e) KQx double-suited (wet, two overcards)
f) 98x single-suited (wet, no overcards)
g) KKx rainbow
h) 99x rainbow
And so on. Do you donk-bet (lead) any of these? Which ones do you check-raise to a standard Stars Tag? Which ones do you check-fold?
__________________
+++++++
A frequent occurrence in Hold'Em NL (particularly on Stars, where opponents tend to be slightly more aggressive and slightly more aware) is the famous "Jacks in early" nightmare.
A typical scnario:
Hero (UTG+2) , $100, gets JJ and raises pot to $3.50.
Villain, (also $100) sitting either immediately behind hero or one seat further to the left, quickly reraises to $13.50. Everyone else folds. Villain is a typical tag Stars plaler, about 18%/11%.
Plan the play.
First, just having the basic stats on Tag are not enough, (I don't play on Stars often enough to get a good hold on other players' numbers). What you really want are the player's Continuation bet frequency and his fold to check-raises frequency.
But, let's assume that we are running blind. We'll take a default assumption of 75% CBs in position and 60% folds to check-raises.
Preflop, do you fold, call, or re-reraise?
Four-betting with Jacks here is probably negative EV. If you reraise to $33 and get called, you are out of position with $67 in front of you and a $66 pot. There are worse spots than this, in that if the flop gives opponent a chance to make a mistake, you get the chance to put the money in first. In this sense the thought that you want a flop like T52 isn't that right. Because if you then shove, opponent will fold a worse hand (AK, AQs) and will call a better one (QQ+). A flop such as Axx or Kxx might get QQ to fold or (with Axx), KK to fold.
The Problem with four-betting is that if opponent then shoves pre-flop, you are getting 2-to-1 in a situation where at most half the time you will be 58% and at least half the time you will be 22%. If it's exactly 50-50, you are just right to call, but it rarely is. 70% overpair and 30% AK is a closer approximation in real life.
Folding isn't that dreadful. It's rare that you are going to have an easy decision post-flop (Jxx flop is it, to be honest). If opponent is a maniac and you know that calling his bet post-flop is likely to be plus EV, then a fold is dreadful. Similarly if opponent is v passive post flop a fold is dreadful. And finally if you know that player will pay you off if you hit your set, then a fold is dreadful. But against a standard competent Stars player, there's nothing wrong with giving up. You probably aren't getting the required implied odds, which means that you have to win some of the time with just JJ. That "some" percentage depends on or far below you are in terms of implied odds.
Calling creates the most difficult decisions post flop, but the game is not about avoiding difficult decisions post-flop. If it was, you would just shove with AA preflop. You don't. You deliberately make things harder for yourself because you know that this is better EV. So, with JJ, the more you can accurately define your opponents' range (where, paradoxically "narrowing" the range includes "he would do this with anything") the more you can be inclined to call rather than fold or four-bet.
So, suppose you choose to call. The board then comes as follows
a) Qxx rainbow (dry, one overcard)
b) KQx rainbow (dry, two overcards)
c) xxx rainbow (dry, no overcards)
d) QTx double-suited (wet, one overcard)
e) KQx double-suited (wet, two overcards)
f) 98x single-suited (wet, no overcards)
g) KKx rainbow
h) 99x rainbow
And so on. Do you donk-bet (lead) any of these? Which ones do you check-raise to a standard Stars Tag? Which ones do you check-fold?
__________________
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no subject
Date: 2009-01-15 01:16 pm (UTC)f.n.
no subject
Date: 2009-01-15 02:53 pm (UTC)PJ
no subject
Date: 2009-01-15 05:43 pm (UTC)If it rallies again to 4600 without good reason, I'll likely step in. I was pretty close to coming back in this time:(
f.n.
no subject
Date: 2009-01-15 03:36 pm (UTC)matt
no subject
Date: 2009-01-15 03:49 pm (UTC)A few trades on gold and all is looking well. I will continue holding physical gold but noodle around either side of the moving averages with the CFDs. Any profits get ploughed into physical gold.
I won't be shorting gold as I don't like second-guessing the insiders in a bull-market. Besides people always want gold, unlike shares.
I will stick to day trading gold when the Dow is closed. When the Dow opens the gold market goes mental trying to react to moves in the Dow and GBP/USD. Large swings make a mess of my limits and orders.
Today I bought a week's worth of food for £13 at ASDA and then made £30 on gold so I am more than pleased.
no subject
Date: 2009-01-15 10:34 pm (UTC)Virginia Wolfe