Late Night Parties can be annoying
Oct. 7th, 2005 05:52 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksIt's a lot easier playing when there is a vague degree of predicatbility in the world. Although I expect a raft of "How can you do that?"s from my play here.
Hero on button with AA in a $3-$6 game.
Call from UTG (loose, prepared to raise). Call from CO (loose, not many raises). Raise from me. Call from the Big Blind (Loose). Reraise from UTG (probably a pair of some kind - could just be pissed that I raised him). Call from CO. Call from me. Call from BB.
I'll cap it about half the time here with Aces and flat-call the other half of the time.
Flop comes J43 two hearts (I have no heart). Check from BB, check from UTG, Bet from CO. I raise. Fold from BB. UTG now 3-bets it and CO caps it.
Now there are many possibilities here. UTG could have JJ, but I really place him with either KK or AA But CO looks to me to be on set for 33 or 44. Indeed, I'd say that 70% of the time this would be a set. But, of course, I don't normally play at this time of night. I am not, as it were, "in the zone". This is one of the situations I get into time and time again when the madmen are out in the US. If I call, it turns out that I have two outs, whereas if I fold, my Aces would have held up to win.
So, through gritted teeth, I call the $6. UTG calls.
Turn brings 5d, making a board of J435 two hearts. UTG checks and CO bets. I call. UTG raises and CO reraises. What do I do?
(I'll give you a clue. This is not a Barron Vangor Toth story. I occasionally lose pots).
+++++
I sold my shares in Compass earlier this week at 199.5p. I bought them at the beginning of the year at 235p as a recovery play. History has told me that when the recovery does not happen, it's best to get out before things go seriously pear-shaped (Mayflower is one example that springs to mind.... that cost me quite a lot). I mean, it takes a bit of skill to get a company that provides catering to get embroiled in a scandal in Iraq.
No real ideas of what to put this money into, actually. Given that the "sell in May and go away" punters have got seriously burned this year (hah! Good!) there might be some profit-taking as the year-end approaches and books are squared up. Methinks a cash holding will be as good as anything. Let's see what interest those Barclays scumbags pay on it. Probably 0.10%.
I am seriously thinking of a yen punt against the dollar in the near future. Although I'm not particularly dollar-bearish, I'm quite yen bullish. You only need the whiff of positive interest rates to get a bit closer to reality and I can see a nice little yen spurt early next year as a result.
Hero on button with AA in a $3-$6 game.
Call from UTG (loose, prepared to raise). Call from CO (loose, not many raises). Raise from me. Call from the Big Blind (Loose). Reraise from UTG (probably a pair of some kind - could just be pissed that I raised him). Call from CO. Call from me. Call from BB.
I'll cap it about half the time here with Aces and flat-call the other half of the time.
Flop comes J43 two hearts (I have no heart). Check from BB, check from UTG, Bet from CO. I raise. Fold from BB. UTG now 3-bets it and CO caps it.
Now there are many possibilities here. UTG could have JJ, but I really place him with either KK or AA But CO looks to me to be on set for 33 or 44. Indeed, I'd say that 70% of the time this would be a set. But, of course, I don't normally play at this time of night. I am not, as it were, "in the zone". This is one of the situations I get into time and time again when the madmen are out in the US. If I call, it turns out that I have two outs, whereas if I fold, my Aces would have held up to win.
So, through gritted teeth, I call the $6. UTG calls.
Turn brings 5d, making a board of J435 two hearts. UTG checks and CO bets. I call. UTG raises and CO reraises. What do I do?
(I'll give you a clue. This is not a Barron Vangor Toth story. I occasionally lose pots).
+++++
I sold my shares in Compass earlier this week at 199.5p. I bought them at the beginning of the year at 235p as a recovery play. History has told me that when the recovery does not happen, it's best to get out before things go seriously pear-shaped (Mayflower is one example that springs to mind.... that cost me quite a lot). I mean, it takes a bit of skill to get a company that provides catering to get embroiled in a scandal in Iraq.
No real ideas of what to put this money into, actually. Given that the "sell in May and go away" punters have got seriously burned this year (hah! Good!) there might be some profit-taking as the year-end approaches and books are squared up. Methinks a cash holding will be as good as anything. Let's see what interest those Barclays scumbags pay on it. Probably 0.10%.
I am seriously thinking of a yen punt against the dollar in the near future. Although I'm not particularly dollar-bearish, I'm quite yen bullish. You only need the whiff of positive interest rates to get a bit closer to reality and I can see a nice little yen spurt early next year as a result.
no subject
Date: 2005-10-07 01:06 pm (UTC)chaos
A clear fold
Date: 2005-10-10 12:34 pm (UTC)Betting on turn now goes check from UTG, bet from the CO, call from UTG. River is a nine, I think. Might have been a potential flush on board. UTG checks, CO bets and UTG calls. CO shows 75 off for a pair of fives, and UTG shows KK to take the pot with a pair of Kings.
I think my fold on the flop is marginally, yes, marginally, minus EV. For that reason I was annoyed at myself, because I know that I folded because I was planning to quit soon and I was about $40 up. I protected my winnings.
But I shouldn't really have beaten myself up. What caused the gried was that I would have won about $70 on the deal. If I had lost, I would have lost maybe $40 to $50. So there was a big swing, but the actual EV on the fold was probably no more than minus a dollar or two. A bad move, yes, but not one to go on tilt about.
PJ