BDD Hits A Wall
May. 26th, 2005 02:47 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksMr Dowling's absence from the online blog scene for a couple of weeks is perhaps partially explained by the fact that he can take a 24K hit and treat the matter philosophically. It does at least put any losses that I might incur into perspective.
Of course, BDD plays a swingy style in a swingy game, so this kind of thing can be expected once a year or so, but I certainly couldn't take it. Three or four bad sessions on the spin and I start doubting my ability to ever win a hand again.
That's the good thing about limit, in that the bad runs tend to last less long, because there are fewer massive hands and a lot more less-than-massive hands. I could see BDD's loss being down to, say, 12 coin-flips of which 10 went wrong. That kind of thing happens all the time.
In limit, even at, say, 50-100, such a run would only result in a loss of about 5K (I would guess). And it would be over in a couple of nights, because those coin-flips appear all the time. If you wait at limit until you are 80-20 favourite (as some players seem to do) then you will lose money slowly and surely.
I've had two good nights and one bad night since the "new strategy" came into play. Far too small a sample size to come to any conclusions about whether it is better or worse than the old one. But it feels better. However, one downside might be that I might have to move tables a bit more often, because the more aware players are likely to spot what line I am taking. As I said, the target is to win a significantly higher percentage of hands when I see the flop, even at the expense of winning fewer showdowns.
I don't think that I need to spell out the implications this has for my "style" and how it will inevitably lead to me being called down more often by "aware" players. The escape route here is to keep on the move if you think that someone has sussed you out. Luckily, Party has a big player base.
But this is a bit of a disadvantage. Before, I think that I gained a greater advantage from knowing about someone else's style than they gained from knowing about mine. At the moment, this might not be the case.
And, before you write in, the obvious answer is to know when to switch styles, and to be able to do so smoothly! By the time I've mastered that, I'll probably be ready to move up another level.
Of course, BDD plays a swingy style in a swingy game, so this kind of thing can be expected once a year or so, but I certainly couldn't take it. Three or four bad sessions on the spin and I start doubting my ability to ever win a hand again.
That's the good thing about limit, in that the bad runs tend to last less long, because there are fewer massive hands and a lot more less-than-massive hands. I could see BDD's loss being down to, say, 12 coin-flips of which 10 went wrong. That kind of thing happens all the time.
In limit, even at, say, 50-100, such a run would only result in a loss of about 5K (I would guess). And it would be over in a couple of nights, because those coin-flips appear all the time. If you wait at limit until you are 80-20 favourite (as some players seem to do) then you will lose money slowly and surely.
I've had two good nights and one bad night since the "new strategy" came into play. Far too small a sample size to come to any conclusions about whether it is better or worse than the old one. But it feels better. However, one downside might be that I might have to move tables a bit more often, because the more aware players are likely to spot what line I am taking. As I said, the target is to win a significantly higher percentage of hands when I see the flop, even at the expense of winning fewer showdowns.
I don't think that I need to spell out the implications this has for my "style" and how it will inevitably lead to me being called down more often by "aware" players. The escape route here is to keep on the move if you think that someone has sussed you out. Luckily, Party has a big player base.
But this is a bit of a disadvantage. Before, I think that I gained a greater advantage from knowing about someone else's style than they gained from knowing about mine. At the moment, this might not be the case.
And, before you write in, the obvious answer is to know when to switch styles, and to be able to do so smoothly! By the time I've mastered that, I'll probably be ready to move up another level.
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Re: Nice to see my name in lights!
Date: 2005-05-27 12:51 pm (UTC)I suspect that my style will always have a lower long-term EV and a lower volatility, so matter how much I try to change it. And, actually, my current way of playing may be LESS swingy rather than more.
Part of this is down to something we have not yet considered -- I tend to play between 4pm and 8pm UK time, rather than late at night US time. My opponents tend to be tighter, more aware, and more willing to lay down hands. Now, in the long term this will reduce my earn. But it also drastically reduces volatility, because you get far fewer suck-outs.
Still slowly ploughing through a sequence of showdowns in ring games. I'm going to get a Stan James article out of this, and the information SHOULD be very useful. But, man, it's tedious work.
I raise.